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THE MARKETSTech stocks shrug off oil risk\u00a0<\/p>\n
Stocks were broadly up in Asia today, especially in the tech-heavy South Korea market, as the Dutch semiconductor company ASML reported better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its guidance. U.S. futures are up this morning after the government reported an unexpectedly tame inflation number yesterday. And the price of oil declined, despite the worsening situation in the Gulf.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 futures were up 0.22% this morning. The index closed up 0.38% yesterday.\u00a0
\nIn Europe, the Stoxx 600 was flat in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down 0.11% before lunch.
\nAsia: South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up 6.24%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was up 1.49%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was flat. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down 0.20%.\u00a0
\nBrent crude was $85 per barrel this morning, down from a high of $87 yesterday.
\nBitcoin was at $64.6K.<\/p>\n
Inflation report instantly takes Fed rate hikes off the table<\/p>\n
After the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) came in unexpectedly low at 3.5% yesterday, Wall Street became almost unanimous in its view that the Fed will not hike interest rates this year. Here are some of their takes:<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you were looking for runaway inflation in this report, you didn’t get it.\u201d\u2014Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.
\n\u201cIt would be astonishing if the FOMC tightened policy this month after this benign CPI report.\u201d\u2014Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
\n\u201cThe more likely course of action is for the Fed to hold rates steady for a prolonged period, perhaps until the summer of next year.\u201d\u2014ING\u2019s James Knightley.
\nThis is the report the Fed has been waiting for.\u201d\u2014Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy & research at Glenmede.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s driving the S&P 500 right now? One word: Capex.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’re in an investment cycle unlike anything we’ve seen before,\u201d according to Ohsung Kwon and his team at Wells Fargo.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n
A year after founder Fred Smith\u2019s death, FedEx\u2019s CEO charts his own path – Alyson Shontell<\/p>\n
Billionaire Richard Branson says copying his 5 a.m. morning routine won\u2019t make you successful\u2014and will just cause \u2018more burnouts than breakthroughs\u2019 – Orianna Rosa Royle<\/p>\n
The $124 trillion Great Wealth Transfer is more than just cash: More U.S. businesses are now being inherited than bought, BofA finds – Sasha Rogelberg<\/p>\n
\u2018Close to as good as it gets\u2019: Jamie Dimon just offered another warning on bubbly markets as Wall Street had a monster quarter – Mia Osmonbekov<\/p>\n
Mitsubishi takes over $7.5 billion in U.S. natural gas fields from Aethon, deepening Japanese bet on LNG and the AI boom – Jordan Blum<\/p>\n
An SEC email address mix-up is causing confusion and threatening to disrupt its proposal to scrap quarterly reporting requirements – Amanda Gerut<\/p>\n
IRANTrump threatens to bomb Iran\u2019s infrastructure\u00a0<\/p>\n
President Trump made new threats against Iran yesterday, telling Fox News, “Next week it gets really bad for them,” Trump said. “We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”<\/p>\n
In the last 24 hours, U.S. forces hit dozens of targets on Iran\u2019s Gulf coast. In response, Iran struck U.S. linked sites in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.<\/p>\n
The hostilities came after the president did a swift U-turn on his Monday threat to impose tolls of 20% on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, he said yesterday on social media, the U.S. will reimpose a blockade on Iranian ships, and demand \u201cMASSIVE\u201d trade and investment deals in the U.S. from foreign shipping companies wanting to use the Strait.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, again<\/p>\n
Shipping through the Strait fell to a two-month low, according to Reuters. Not a single LNG tanker has made it through the strait since July 11, according to Kpler, the ship-tracking firm.<\/p>\n
Iran has managed to sneak some ships through the waterway, however. Nine of the \u200b11 boats that made it through the strait prior to the reimposition of the U.S. blockade went via the Iran-approved course on the north side, Reuters said. Three of them were empty tankers entering the Gulf. It is becoming more difficult to track shipping as captains turn off their transponders and go dark in hopes of not becoming targets for Iranian drones.<\/p>\n
U.S. forces escorted 800 ships through the Strait over the past two months, The Wall Street Journal said. Expect that rate to decline in the coming days.<\/p>\n
The U.S. is using up its weapons faster than it is replacing them<\/p>\n
The WSJ notes: \u201cThe U.S. is facing shortages of interceptors that are critical for knocking out incoming Iranian missiles, making it dicier for Trump to stretch the clock.\u201d Military Watch Magazine says the same thing: It would take a year of production to replace the Patriot air defense missiles expended in the last few months. But because defense contractors are also committed to serving foreign clients, deliveries might not actually happen for four or five years. \u201cThe situation is considerably worse when assessing stockpiles of interceptors for the THAAD air defence system, Tomahawk cruise missiles, or GBU-57 bombs,\u201d MWM says.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s day 138 of the war and no one knows what the endgame is<\/p>\n
Notably, the WSJ, the New York Times, and the Financial Times all have heavy analysis pieces on their front pages today, all saying roughly the same thing: Observers can’t fathom Trump\u2019s strategy on Iran and can\u2019t see a way out of the conflict for the U.S. <\/p>\n
Iran appears to have Trump in perpetual check: The bombing has not worked thus far; the Tehran regime remains in place; Iran has the ability to close the Strait anytime it wants; there is no agreement on curbing Iran\u2019s nuclear program; and the price of gasoline in the U.S. remains a painpoint for Americans.<\/p>\n
CHINA MAKES, THE WORLD TAKESChina\u2019s export trade cannot be stopped\u00a0<\/p>\n
If President Trump was hoping to throw tacks onto the road in front of the Chinese economy, it didn\u2019t work. China’s GDP was up 4.3% in Q2, which is considered disappointing over there but in the West would be regarded a blockbuster print.\u00a0<\/p>\n
China\u2019s exports increased 27% to a 53-month high in June, ING\u2019s Lynn Song said in a note. They were up 19.4% the month before. This chart shows that after a brief hiatus caused by Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs, China\u2019s exports to the U.S. have already returned to positive territory:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
CHART OF THE DAYWhat jobs do illegal immigrants actually do?\u00a0<\/p>\n
Unauthorized immigrants make up nearly 6% of the U.S. workforce, according to Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics. \u201cBut their share of the workforce is at least double the national average in dozens of industries. The private-households subsector is by far the most dependent on undocumented labor; it includes maids, nannies, personal care aides, and outdoor workers such as gardeners,\u201d he said in an email to Fortune.<\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY22%<\/p>\n
The consensus among analysts for year-on-year growth in earnings per share among the S&P 500 in Q2, according to a note from Piper Sandler\u2019s Michael Kantrowitz. In Q1, EPS growth was 21%. Kantrowitz also noticed that analysts have recently become more bullish in their expectations as the year ticks by. <\/p>\n
This chart shows how, in the past, analysts would start the year optimistic and then reduce their expectations as the months go by. Now, however, analysts move their estimates upward as we head toward December.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n
Donald Trump\u2019s return to war with Iran offers no clear path to victory – FT<\/p>\n
Current and former employees sue Meta, alleging discrimination in using AI to conduct layoffs – CNBC<\/p>\n
Scoop: Trump tells Netanyahu to move forces out of Syria and Lebanon – Axios<\/p>\n
Why High Credit Card Delinquencies Aren\u2019t Showing Up at the Big Banks – WSJ<\/p>\n
ASML Raises Outlook, Plans Capacity Hike as AI Boosts Demand – Bloomberg<\/p>\n
How the Superwealthy Sidestep the Masses to Get to the World Cup – NYT<\/p>\n
ONE MORE THINGApple\u2019s gossip about OpenAI is extremely spicy<\/p>\n
If you haven’t yet paid attention to Apple\u2019s lawsuit against OpenAI, in which the iPhone company accuses Sam Altman\u2019s people of stealing its corporate secrets, now is the time to treat yourself. Its allegations are explosive. Apple claims one of its ex-employees, Chang Liu, joined OpenAI in January 2026 but failed to return a work-issued laptop. He then exploited a bug in Apple\u2019s security software to use that laptop to download dozens of Apple\u2019s confidential hardware-related files. Apple also claims Liu used a former colleague\u2019s Apple-issued work computer to get into its corporate network. <\/p>\n
Both of these acts, it should be noted, are textbook definitions of computer hacking, which is a crime in the U.S. (Sips tea.) OpenAI did not respond to the allegations when reached by Fortune but it has said elsewhere it \u201chas no interest in other companies\u2019 trade secrets.\u201d<\/p>\n
To be clear, Apple does not specifically accuse anyone of breaking criminal law in its suit, although it does allege its information was \u201cstolen.\u201d That\u2019s why Elon Musk was dragging Sam Altman on X the other day by suggesting the latter could only visit Musk\u2019s data centers \u201cif your parole officer approves.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
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#Trump #threatens #Iran #bombing #missile #stockpiles #decline #Strait #Hormuz #slams #shut<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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