<\/p>\n
The likely impact of the expected El Ni\u00f1o on South Africa\u2019s agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country.<\/p>\n
By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Ni\u00f1o. The El Ni\u00f1o weather phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on the many regions of the world. For southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production.<\/p>\n
The arrival of the likely drought is due to coincide with South Africa\u2019s 2026\/27 summer crop season.<\/p>\n
Read:<\/p>\n
How an El Ni\u00f1o becomes a super El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o
\nEl Ni\u00f1o likely strongest seen in 75 years, US forecasters say<\/p>\n
In my work as an agricultural economist and visiting various farming regions across South Africa, I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Ni\u00f1o on crop production and, subsequently, on consumer food price inflation, two major factors need to be considered.<\/p>\n
First, unlike in the most recent droughts, South Africa will enter the 2026\/27 summer crop season with higher soil moisture, because there were excessive rains in the 2025\/26 season, which lasted far longer than usual.<\/p>\n
South Africa received rains through to May 2026, which is unusual; the summer rains typically end around March. The rains improved the water levels in the dams for irrigation, and also the soil moisture and water tables. This places the country in a better position ahead of the 2026\/27 crop season.<\/p>\n
Second, South Africa has ample grain supplies, and carries over a high stock of grain, which may soften some of the drought impact on food prices and therefore inflation.<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:<\/p>\n
SA farms face El Ni\u00f1o drought risk on top of Iran war
\nFood security, El Ni\u00f1o and their impact on the continent<\/p>\n
Food is an important component of South Africa\u2019s inflation basket, with a weighting of about 16.8%. A rise in food price inflation therefore tends to influence the overall inflation trend.<\/p>\n
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Still, it\u2019s likely that 2027 may not be the same as previous droughts that led to a notable increase in food price inflation, and then the headline (overall) inflation figure.<\/p>\n
Impact of previous droughts<\/p>\n
South Africa\u2019s staple grain is maize. In past drought events, the country saw notable losses in maize production, and a broader impact on other agricultural activities.<\/p>\n
For example, one of the most memorable droughts in South Africa occurred in the 2014\/15 and 2015\/16 seasons. The maize harvest in that period fell to around 8.9 million tonnes on average. (For comparison, at the current 2025\/26 season, South Africa is expecting a maize harvest of 17.3 million tonnes.)<\/p>\n
South Africa\u2019s annual maize consumption is about 12.0 million tonnes, and a smaller harvest meant the country had to import. This led to a surge in food price inflation, which averaged 10.8% in 2016. (It averaged 3.2% in the first five months in 2026.)<\/p>\n
The impact was not only on maize, but across the field crops: maize, wheat, soybeans, sunflower seed and sugarcane, among others.<\/p>\n
Roughly 20% of South Africa\u2019s field crops are under irrigation, with the rest rainfed. All production of fruits and vegetables is under irrigation, and will benefit from the higher water levels in dams this year.<\/p>\n
This time, things are different.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s different this time<\/p>\n
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First, South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Ni\u00f1a, a weather pattern which makes the region wetter. This has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years. The rains place farming in a better position ahead of the 2026\/27 season.<\/p>\n
In the 2024\/25 season, the summer rains continued through April 2025; they normally end in March. In the 2025\/26 season, they went on to May 2026.<\/p>\n
Listen\/read: From day zero to El Ni\u00f1o, the next drought could be worse than we think<\/p>\n
Ordinarily, such long rainfall periods would raise concerns about crop quality. But in the areas that harvested the 2025\/26 crops, the country hasn\u2019t seen many quality issues. In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee\u2019s latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025\/26.<\/p>\n
The longer rainfall season improved soil moisture and the water table. The planting period starts in October 2026. There may be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development even as El Ni\u00f1o conditions likely result in below-normal rainfall.<\/p>\n
That said, the timing of the rain is what will matter most for crop development.<\/p>\n
In the irrigation areas, such as the fruit and vegetable growing regions, the La Ni\u00f1a rains over the past few years have improved dam water levels and the overall water table.<\/p>\n
Field crops will depend mostly on available soil moisture and the timing of showers going into the 2026\/27 season.<\/p>\n
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For the livestock industry, grazing across the country is in a fair condition, having benefited from the longer rainy periods. The improved water table will continue to support pastures.<\/p>\n
The second key factor is that South Africa has its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed crop in the 2025\/26 season. The Crop Estimates Committee places the 2025\/26 summer crop at a record 21.49 million tonnes, 5% up year-on-year.<\/p>\n
Notably, zooming in on the major grains, the 2025\/26 maize production estimate is 17.25 million tonnes, up 4% from last season, and the largest harvest on record. This ample grain harvest adds to large carryover stocks from the previous season.<\/p>\n
The path ahead is better<\/p>\n
The drought that\u2019s being forecast is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers.<\/p>\n
But any upcoming drought shouldn\u2019t be viewed in the same way as previous dry spells. There are clear factors here that may shape this upcoming season better than the last droughts.<\/p>\n
Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.<\/p>\n
#Ni\u00f1o #drought #hit #food #prices #South #Africa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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