<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has turned into one of the best comeback trades of 2026.<\/p>\n
Shares closed at $1,196.03 on July 24, up nearly 11% year to date after a rough start dragged the stock below $900 in the spring.<\/p>\n
Lilly shares have climbed about 39% since the company’s first-quarter report, according to Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n
Now the bank is telling clients where the next move comes from, and it is not the product most headlines are chasing.<\/p>\n
What Goldman Sachs expects from Eli Lilly’s second-quarter earnings<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs is holding a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1,283 on Eli Lilly heading into the Aug. 5 report, Yahoo Finance reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That target sits about 7% above where the stock closed on July 24.<\/p>\n
For the second quarter, Goldman expects $20.8 billion in revenue, roughly in line with the $20.5 billion Visible Alpha consensus, and adjusted earnings of $5.83 a share.<\/p>\n
The bank’s forecast reflects a $2.8 billion acquired research and development charge, which weighs on the reported number.<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly confirms Aug. 5 as the date for its second-quarter earnings call.<\/p>\n
Why Foundayo’s soft start may not sink Eli Lilly stock<\/p>\n
Foundayo is Lilly’s new oral obesity pill, and its debut has been slower than Wall Street hoped.<\/p>\n
Goldman projects just $40 million in second-quarter Foundayo sales, against a consensus near $100 million.<\/p>\n
Foundayo (orforglipron) is the only approved once-daily obesity pill with no food or water restrictions, Lilly noted when the drug won FDA approval in April.<\/p>\n
More Eli Lilly Stock:<\/p>\n
JPMorgan raises Eli Lilly stock price target to $1,400UBS lifts Eli Lilly stock target to $1,425Ozempic maker takes biggest rival to court over weight-loss drug ads<\/p>\n
Weekly prescriptions for Foundayo have stalled for five straight weeks after an early peak, Jefferies noted, citing IQVIA data.<\/p>\n
Goldman cut its 2026 U.S. Foundayo estimate to $755 million from $1.1 billion to reflect the slower sales.<\/p>\n
The bank still expects Foundayo to be a top question on the Aug. 5 call, yet it argues the stock’s fate rests elsewhere.<\/p>\n
The number Goldman Sachs says will move Eli Lilly stock<\/p>\n
Goldman’s note says the size of Lilly’s next guidance raise is the single most important variable for how the stock reacts on report day.<\/p>\n
Lilly currently guides to $83 billion to $85 billion in 2026 revenue. Goldman sees room for a raise of up to $1 billion and models $86.1 billion for the year.<\/p>\n
In plain terms, guidance is the company’s own revenue forecast. When Lilly lifts it, investors read that as management confidence backed by real demand.<\/p>\n
Goldman flags one catch. Its client conversations suggest many investors already expect a raise, so some of that optimism may be priced in.<\/p>\n
That sets up a familiar earnings-season trap, where a good result still disappoints because expectations ran higher.<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly reports second-quarter results on Aug. 5, with its obesity and diabetes franchise in focus.<\/p>\n
jetcityimage / Getty Images<\/p>\n
How OUS Mounjaro became the real engine for LLY stock<\/p>\n
The second driver Goldman highlights is Lilly drug Mounjaro, sold outside the United States.<\/p>\n
The bank forecasts $4.95 billion in second-quarter OUS Mounjaro sales, about 10% above the $4.5 billion consensus.<\/p>\n
OUS simply means “outside the U.S.,” and this line has carried Lilly’s gains for several quarters running.<\/p>\n
Mounjaro already holds roughly 60% of the incretin market in countries such as Brazil and Korea, Morgan Stanley noted in May.<\/p>\n
Related: Lilly quietly hands Chinese partner its cancer drug<\/p>\n
Domestically sold Mounjaro is steadier, with Goldman modeling $4.4 billion, which is close to consensus.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Zepbound is the third leg of Lilly’s obesity lineup, and early signs point to faster volume growth since the July 1 Medicare change.<\/p>\n
The takeaway for readers is direct. International demand, not the new pill, is what analysts are watching for surprises.<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly stock versus the market and its rival<\/p>\n
Lilly’s rebound stands out against both the broader market and its closest competitor.<\/p>\n
Here is how LLY has traded in 2026:<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly vs. key benchmarks, 2026Eli Lilly: up about 11% year to date, according to Google FinanceShares up roughly 39% since first-quarter results, according to Goldman SachsRival Novo Nordisk, maker of Ozempic, has struggled, and the two are now in a legal fight over advertising claims.<\/p>\n
The gap reflects a simple reality. Lilly’s obesity and diabetes franchise keeps winning customers from rivals, CNBC noted.<\/p>\n
Lilly holds about 60% of the combined U.S. GLP-1 market.<\/p>\n
What Eli Lilly investors should watch on August 5<\/p>\n
Several things still need to break Lilly’s way for the bull case to hold.<\/p>\n
Watch these signals when the company reports:<\/p>\n
The guidance raise. A lift toward Goldman’s $86.1 billion would confirm demand is outrunning lower U.S. prices.OUS Mounjaro. A beat above $4.5 billion keeps the main profit engine intact.Medicare traction. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began July 1, letting eligible Part D patients pay about $50 a month.Foundayo’s trajectory. Investors want signs the pill’s flat prescription trend is turning.<\/p>\n
Goldman also points to pipeline risk. The firm noted that retatrutide, a next-generation obesity candidate, saw its filing timeline slip to the first quarter of 2027 from late 2026.<\/p>\n
The risks that could still hit Eli Lilly stock<\/p>\n
Goldman lists the main threats: alarger drop in obesity-drug pricing, market-share losses to competitors, and weak clinical data on pipeline drugs.<\/p>\n
Pricing is the risk to be most cautious about. According to Lilly’s earnings report, U.S. pricesfell 13% in the first quarter even as volume surged.<\/p>\n
There is also a demand risk further out. A survey this year found some large employers may drop GLP-1 coverage in 2027. That would affect both Zepbound and Foundayo.<\/p>\n
Anyone weighing LLY should size the position to their own risk tolerance, since stocks priced for perfection fall hard when a quarter disappoints.<\/p>\n
The bottom line for Eli Lilly stock<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs is still bullish on Eli Lilly, holding its Buy rating and $1,283 target, which implies modest gains from current levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But the bank is steering investors away from the obvious storyline, since a soft Foundayo quarter is already widely expected.<\/p>\n
The real test on Aug. 5 is whether Lilly raises guidance enough to satisfy a market that already expects good news, and whether international Mounjaro sales keep beating forecasts.<\/p>\n
If both land, the 2026 comeback has room to run. If the guidance raise isn’t high enough, even a solid quarter could stall the stock.<\/p>\n
For everyday investors, watch the raise and the overseas numbers, not just the new pill that owns the headlines.<\/p>\n
Related: Eli Lilly\u2019s hottest drugs face a quiet new threat<\/p>\n
#Goldman #Sachs #sees #writing #wall #Eli #Lilly #stock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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