{"id":1249,"date":"2026-03-12T19:51:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=1249"},"modified":"2026-03-12T19:51:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:51:21","slug":"goldman-just-raised-recession-odds-to-25-heres-what-trumps-war-economy-is-doing-to-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=1249","title":{"rendered":"Goldman just raised recession odds to 25%. Here’s what Trump’s war economy is doing to jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs is sounding a new alarm: the U.S. economy is slipping, and the war in Iran is making it worse. The bank raised its 12-month recession probability to 25% Thursday\u2014up 5 percentage points\u2014 after a brutal February jobs report and surging oil prices forced economists to tear up their forecasts.\u200b<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a striking signal from Wall Street\u2019s most closely watched research desk, and it comes at a moment when the Trump administration\u2019s twin bets\u2014on tariffs and military engagement in the Middle East\u2014are colliding with a labor market that was already showing cracks.<\/p>\n

The jobs number that rattled Wall Street<\/p>\n

February payrolls fell by 92,000 \u2014 a number that Goldman economist David Mericle called a \u201creminder that job growth is still too low.\u201d The bank\u2019s estimate of underlying job creation sits barely above zero, trailing even the 70,000 jobs-per-month breakeven rate needed just to keep pace with new labor market entrants. Job openings, meanwhile, are still falling.\u200b<\/p>\n

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.44% last month, and Goldman now expects it to reach 4.6% by the third quarter. An unusual revision to the labor force participation rate\u2014down 0.4 percentage points, reflecting updated Census data showing more retired Americans than previously counted\u2014deepened the picture of a softening workforce.\u200b<\/p>\n

Oil is the new wild card<\/p>\n

The war in Iran has thrown a volatile new input into an already complicated economic equation. Goldman\u2019s baseline forecast has Brent crude averaging $98 per barrel in March and April before retreating to $71 by year-end. In a worst-case scenario\u2014a one-month disruption to the Strait of Hormuz\u2014Brent could spike to $110, sending headline inflation to a spring peak near 4.5%.\u200b<\/p>\n

Even in the baseline, Goldman raised its headline PCE inflation forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 2.9% by December.\u200b<\/p>\n

Tariffs are already in the numbers<\/p>\n

Goldman estimates that Trump\u2019s tariffs have already added more than 70 basis points to core inflation. Net of those tariff effects, underlying inflation looks far more contained\u2014core CPI near 1.75% and core PCE near 2.25%\u2014suggesting the policy itself is doing meaningful inflationary work.\u200b<\/p>\n

The Fed is stuck<\/p>\n

Rate cuts aren\u2019t coming anytime soon. Goldman pushed its two expected 2026 cuts back to September and December, with the bank noting that \u201ca higher inflation path will make it harder for the Fed to cut soon.\u201d The Fed faces a classic stagflationary squeeze: a labor market soft enough to argue for easing, but an inflation path\u2014driven by oil and tariffs\u2014that argues for restraint.\u200b<\/p>\n

Not everyone is hitting the panic button<\/p>\n

To be sure, 25% recession odds still mean Goldman\u2019s base case is continued growth \u2014 and the bank\u2019s own data offers reasons for cautious optimism. Productivity growth has averaged a solid 2.2% annualized this cycle, which Mericle sees as a reversion to the U.S. historical average after years of post-financial-crisis underperformance. Shelter inflation is also cooling sharply, with new lease rent growth running near zero year-over-year, which Goldman expects to drag overall shelter costs down from 3.1% to 2.3% by December. And Goldman itself notes that if the labor market weakens further, the Fed would likely cut earlier\u2014providing a built-in policy cushion that didn\u2019t exist in prior downturns.\u200b<\/p>\n

A strong Q1 won\u2019t last<\/p>\n

Goldman is tracking first-quarter GDP growth at 3.3%, but 1.3 percentage points of that reflects the one-time boost from last fall\u2019s government shutdown ending. From Q2 through Q4, the bank sees growth decelerating to roughly 2.0%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively\u2014a glide path toward stall speed.<\/p>\n

For this story,\u00a0Fortune\u00a0journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.<\/p>\n

#Goldman #raised #recession #odds #Heres #Trumps #war #economy #jobs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs is sounding a new alarm: the U.S. economy is slipping, and the war…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[245],"tags":[649,1305,1828,410,310,2586,102,2585,1983,414,684],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1249"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1249\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}