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Oil up, everything else down<\/p>\n
S&P 500 futures ticked upward this morning before the opening bell in New York and Bitcoin went up to $72K. That\u2019s the good news. Everything else is down bad: The S&P closed down 1.52% yesterday. Asia, Europe, and the U.K. took another beating this morning. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was off more than 2%. The volatile South Korean KOSPI lost 1.72%. There is no mystery as to why: Oil is up over $100 again.<\/p>\n
TOP STORIES<\/p>\n
IRAN<\/p>\n
Exclusive: Binance was asleep at the wheel as its wallets funded Iran\u00a0<\/p>\n
Binance allowed a VIP account registered to a 79-year-old Chinese resident to send $439 million of digital tokens to a wallet that then forwarded the funds to others connected to sanctioned organizations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to an investigation by Fortune\u2019s Leo Schwartz and Ben Weiss.<\/p>\n
\u201cPlenty of time\u201d \u2014 three words spooking the markets<\/p>\n
Oil is up because it is now clear to traders that Iran has successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz and laid sea mines within it, according to Fortune\u2019s Eva Roytburg. Eighteen ships in the area have been struck so far. The U.S. Navy has not yet managed to provide safe passage for tankers in the Strait. Israeli intelligence suggests the regime in Tehran is not likely to fall soon, despite President Trump\u2019s insistence that Iran is \u201cabout to surrender.\u201d The president also said yesterday on social media, \u201cWe have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Those last three words seem to be the ones being taken most seriously by investors today.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe stock market may be starting to discount the possibility that the war won\u2019t be short and that the Strait of Hormuz may remain effectively closed for some time,\u201d Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said last night. At ING, Chris Turner noted this morning: \u201cThe dollar is pushing to new highs for the month as the market struggles to see a way out of the Middle East crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n
U.S. stocks are down for the year\u2014unless you are an oil producer. Shares in Exxon, Chevron, and other U.S. oil and gas producers have hit all-time-highs as the war drives up the price of their fuel. Consumers will ultimately pay the price, according to Fortune\u2019s Jordan Blum.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Is Iran\u2019s new leader dead or alive?<\/p>\n
We still don\u2019t have \u201cproof of life\u201d that Mojtaba Khameini, Iran\u2019s new supreme leader, actually survived the attack that killed his father, his mother, one of his children, a sister, his wife, a brother-in-law and a niece, The Guardian reports. Khameini was injured in the attack but there has been no confirmation of his medical condition. He has not been seen in public since the attack. Opposition groups believe he may actually be dead or in a coma, despite the fact that Tehran has issued a robust statement in his name, vowing to continue the fight. The Guardian concludes, gloomily, \u201cthe wartime machinery can operate almost on automatic pilot without him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Must-read: The FT reports that video evidence points to a U.S. Tomahawk missile striking an Iranian school, killing 168 people\u2014mostly children.<\/p>\n
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE<\/p>\n
Is AI creating jobs?\u00a0<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley, drawing on takeaways from its annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference in San Francisco, identified three distinct areas where AI is actually creating demand for workers\u2014even as it threatens to hollow out others, Fortune\u2019s Nick Lichtenberg reports.<\/p>\n
Meta\u2019s AI \u201cAvocado\u201d reportedly rotting on the vine<\/p>\n
Nine months and $14.3 billion after hiring Alexandr Wang and forming an AI super team, Meta\u2019s AI masterplan is looking increasingly shaky, Fortune\u2018s Alexei Oreskovic says. The company\u2019s latest AI model, \u201cAvocado,\u201d is apparently being delayed until May, instead of launching this month, according to a report in the New York Times. The model fell short of those created by Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Even more stunning, Meta\u2019s leadership has apparently discussed licensing Gemini from Google temporarily, until Avocado is up to snuff. \u201cThe notion of Mark Zuckerberg asking Google\u2019s Sundar Pichai for permission to use Gemini is almost impossible to imagine,\u201d Oreskovic says, and the fact that it was merely discussed internally at Meta is news in itself.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Anthropic \u201cPollution\u201d: Defense Department CTO Emil Michael told CNBC why the Pentagon axed Anthropic from its supply chain: \u201cWe can\u2019t have a company that has a different policy preference that is baked into the model through its constitution, its soul, its policy preferences, pollute the supply chain so our warfighters are getting ineffective weapons, ineffective body armor, ineffective protection,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s really where the supply chain risk designation came from.\u201d<\/p>\n
CHART OF THE DAY<\/p>\n
What Americans are spending their tax refunds on<\/p>\n
Bank of America payments data shows that early filers appear to be favoring electronics, restaurants and travel. Average refund sizes are up more than 10% year-over-year, BofA analysts Liz Everett Krisberg and David Michael Tinsley say.<\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/p>\n
0<\/p>\n
The number of interest rate cuts that the Fed could deliver this year, in the estimation of EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. \u201cGiven our higher headline and core PCE inflation forecast, we have revised our baseline to show only one 25bps rate cut in 2026, likely in December, but it is entirely plausible that the Fed won\u2019t deliver any rate cuts this year,\u201d he told clients.<\/p>\n
QUICK HITS<\/p>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n
JPMorgan, suspicious activities and Epstein \u2013 FT<\/p>\n
Who is really footing the AI energy bill? Inside the debate about data center electricity costs \u2013 CNBC<\/p>\n
48% of Americans blame Trump for high gas prices \u2014 more than any other factor \u2013 Axios<\/p>\n
An Exodus of Money Endangers Wall Street\u2019s Private-Credit Craze \u2013 WSJ<\/p>\n
\u2018God, It\u2019s Terrifying\u2019: How the Pentagon Got Hooked on AI War Machines \u2013 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
Embattled BuzzFeed warns end could be near as it faces major cash crunch \u2013 Reuters<\/p>\n
ONE MORE THING<\/p>\n
Hollywon\u2019t: The movie industry is shrinking<\/p>\n
Hollywood is disintegrating, according to Fortune\u2019s Geoff Colvin. Production measured in Los Angeles shoot days is down from 36,792 in 2022 to just 19,694 in 2025. Some 41,000 of the workers who make the industry function left from 2022 to 2024. The industry\u2019s most powerful person is not a traditional studio boss, but Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of streaming giant Netflix\u2014which is headquartered in Silicon Valley.<\/p>\n
#Stocks #Wall #Street #buckles #long #war #Hormuz #closed #Trump #plenty #time<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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