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ONE BIG THINGThe irony of Iran\u2019s plan for tolls on the Hormuz: They might be cheaper than you’d think\u00a0<\/p>\n
If Iran got its way and imposed shipping tolls on the Strait of Hormuz at around 5% to 7% of each oil cargo, it might generate close to $20 billion a year for the regime in Tehran, Fortune\u2019s Jordan Blum estimates. But such astronomical tolls won\u2019t be accepted by the U.S. or Iran\u2019s Gulf neighbors, geopolitical and energy analysts say.<\/p>\n
That means the stalemate will drag on indefinitely or Iran will eventually accept a lesser, but still substantial, financial payout. Either way, the Middle East and, as a result, global energy markets are forever changed.<\/p>\n
The ironic thing: If Iran sets a price too high, the Gulf countries will be forced to adjust and export their oil over land, thus rendering the Strait irrelevant. And the Iranians likely understand that they would have to keep the fees low enough to be economically viable.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe strait is never going to go back to its pre-war status quo,\u201d said Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy with the Eurasia Group. \u201cThere\u2019s going to be a permanently recognized Iranian role in managing the waterway.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAn unattractive deal with Iran is the best of limited bad options,\u201d he believes.<\/p>\n
THE MARKETSGlobal stocks stage mini rally on buoyant AI earnings<\/p>\n
U.S. tech stocks largely fell yesterday with the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.6%. But AI cloud provider CoreWeave published blockbuster Q2 results and markets in Asia and Europe woke up with a smile this morning.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 futures were up 0.22% this morning. The index was down 0.32% yesterday.\u00a0
\nIn Europe, the Stoxx 600 was flat in early trading, as was the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100.
\nAsia: South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up 3.68%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was up 0.83%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was down 0.55%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was up 0.58%.\u00a0
\nBrent crude was $88 per barrel this morning.
\nBitcoin was $63.8K.<\/p>\n
At CoreWeave, $3 billion in insider sales since the IPO<\/p>\n
CoreWeave\u2014an AI cloud computing company\u2014disclosed in its Q2 earnings last night that it more than doubled revenue. But the company\u2019s disclosures to the SEC also contain this eye-popping fact, spotted by Brent Thill and colleagues at Jefferies: \u201cSince CRWV’s IPO [March 2025], the firm’s co-founders have sold ~$2.9B of CRWV stock through 10b5-1 trading plans.\u201d A Rule 10b5-1 plan lets insiders schedule sales in advance, while they aren’t holding material nonpublic information, so later sales can’t be second-guessed as insider trading. Investors didn\u2019t care: The stock rose 2.42% before the close yesterday and then another 17.4% premarket.\u00a0Here\u2019s the chart:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Incoming: CPI inflation expected to be soft, keeping the Fed on hold<\/p>\n
We will get a new consumer price index (headline inflation) today from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The expectation is for a \u201csoft\u201d number around 2.5%\u2014which would tempt the Fed to keep interest rates on hold again in September. \u201cToday’s U.S. July consumer price inflation data will be less precise than in the past. There are more gaps in the data, and those gaps are filled by (educated) guesswork,\u201d UBS\u2019s Paul Donovan advised clients this morning. \u201cThe reaction to a single weaker employment report shows the potency of any data release at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAbsent the war, that figure would likely be at or near 2% (core inflation has embedded energy in freight costs, air fares, etc.). One year on, tariff effects should add less to the inflation rate,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
European stocks are doing surprisingly well<\/p>\n
One of the \u201cmyths\u201d about European companies is that they underperform on profits and are particularly exposed to the oil supply shock from the Gulf, according to Sharon Bell and her team at Goldman Sachs. But that is not true this year, she said in a note. \u201cThe prevailing narrative that Europe is struggling to generate earnings growth is increasingly at odds with the data. First-half EPS growth is tracking at +14% y\/y, the strongest pace in three years, and notably comes despite a renewed energy supply shock, which has historically been viewed as a headwind for European earnings.\u201d The Stoxx 600 is up 11% year-to-date, comparable to the S&P 500\u2019s 13%.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n
Universities are buying and selling property for data centers, prompting concerns about an AI brain drain – Joshua Hong<\/p>\n
Meet ChatTJB, the \u201cAI\u201d chatbot with no AI, no algorithm and no LLM. It\u2019s just one guy and 10,000 volunteers typing back – Tatiana Sataua<\/p>\n
Forget the gala, these Silicon Valley schools run their own venture capital funds – Amanda Gerut<\/p>\n
When OpenAI employees have a problem, they email this special address to see if Sam Altman will solve it immediately – Emily Forlini<\/p>\n
France hits unsolicited telemarketers with $87,000 fine per call, following similar provisions in other European nations – Joshua Hong<\/p>\n
CHART OF THE DAYThe U.S. housing market is stuck in a rut<\/p>\n
Sales of existing homes in the U.S. dropped to 4.06 million in July, down from 4.13 million in June. That\u2019s not good, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics\u2019 Oliver Allen: \u201cThe further dip in sales leaves them in the middle of the depressed range they have been stuck in for around three years now, and around a quarter below their average level in the five years leading up to the pandemic,\u201d he said in a note.<\/p>\n
\u201cLooking further ahead, a significant housing market recovery is unlikely, as long as monetary policy remains relatively tight, the labor market subdued, confidence depressed, and population growth constrained by tighter immigration policies.\u201d<\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY: Humanoid robots90%<\/p>\n
The percentage of the global \u201chumanoid\u201d robot population controlled by Chinese companies, according to research from the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. For instance, State Grid Corporation of China (a utility company) \u201chas committed US$1 billion in 2026 to procure 8,500 AI-enabled autonomous robots across more than 600 specialized tasks, signalling that robotics has become critical national infrastructure,\u201d Wood Mackenzie said in a statement.<\/p>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n
JD Vance asked Ukraine to halt strikes on tankers using Russian port – FT<\/p>\n
World\u2019s largest sovereign wealth fund posts record $184 billion profit as it reveals SpaceX stake for the first time – CNBC<\/p>\n
Tech companies propose tracking rogue AI agents – Axios<\/p>\n
Why Wall Street and Nvidia Are Building an Exotic Money Pipeline for the AI Boom – WSJ<\/p>\n
Bessent-Takaichi Divide on Optimal BOJ Path Threatens Yen Rescue – Bloomberg<\/p>\n
Paramount Has Spent 100 Years in Hollywood. David Ellison Loved That. Until He Didn\u2019t – Hollywood Reporter<\/p>\n
Kroger to close 60 \u2018underperforming\u2019 stores – NY Post<\/p>\n
ONE MORE THINGClimate change threatens Italy\u2019s $4.7 billion \u2018cheese banks\u2019 that hold wheels of Parmigiano as collateral<\/p>\n
In the hills of Emilia-Romagna, a bank vault holds more than half a million wheels of Parmigiano Reggiano, worth well over 300 million euros. The vault belongs to the bank Credito Emiliano, which has accepted young wheels of Parmigiano Reggiano as collateral for loans to dairy farms since 1953.<\/p>\n
But now, extreme heat is threatening Italy\u2019s \u201ccheese banks,\u201d Fortune\u2019s Cat Gioino reports.<\/p>\n
Thanks to this year\u2019s record heat waves in Europe, energy consumption rose about 30%, forcing the bank to upgrade cooling systems and boilers, add insulation, and expand renewable power generation.<\/p>\n
And because it\u2019s so hot outside, cows lie down more and eat less, reducing milk production by up to 10% a year. Longer and more intense heat events hit the quantity and quality of milk, ultimately driving up costs that may not show up in the supply chain until months later.<\/p>\n
#unattractive #deal #Iran #limited #bad #options #oil #flowing<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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