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You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Now, at a time when South Africa\u2019s unemployment rate has climbed back to over 33%, almost 34%, one major city, it seems, might be moving sharply in the opposite direction. eThekwini now has the lowest official unemployment rate of any of the country\u2019s metros at 21.2%, marginally better than Cape Town, and it\u2019s the only metro where unemployment fell both quarterly and year-on-year.<\/p>\n
Read: eThekwini records lowest official unemployment rate of any SA metro<\/p>\n
So does that really make Durban, South Africa\u2019s new jobs powerhouse? What\u2019s actually driving the numbers, or is there a counterpoint to this argument? I want to talk to Professor Justin Visagie, who\u2019s an associate professor at the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies (SCIS) at Wits University here in Johannesburg.<\/p>\n
Justin, welcome to you. So is eThekwini genuinely creating more jobs, or does the unemployment rate just make the picture look a little better than it really is?<\/p>\n
JUSTIN VISAGIE: Thanks for having me on the call, Jeremy. It\u2019s unfortunately quite a technical discussion, but I think important for your readers to appreciate, and that\u2019s that these results ultimately come down to Stats SA sampling, a group of households in South Africa, and they collect information on around 60 000 individuals in total. It\u2019s actually a miracle of statistics that you can use just 60 000 people to represent 63 million and get quite an accurate result.<\/p>\n
But what people need to be aware of is that there can be a lot of politics that goes on and how you recreate the numbers, how you do the sampling. Unfortunately, when it comes to this very localised picture of unemployment and employment in eThekwini, it\u2019s just not being measured accurately enough.<\/p>\n
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So to start off with, it\u2019s just not true to say that eThekwini is now the new employment capital of the country. We need more data. We need bigger samples. 5<\/p>\n
That said, our cities definitely need to employ more people, and it\u2019s an important issue. But I think we need more time, and we need more research to really make this a real number and not just something that\u2019s part of statistical modelling.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: So to that point, then, what specific evidence would convince you this is a genuine jobs boom rather than just, as you\u2019re suggesting, some anomalous statistical movement?<\/p>\n
JUSTIN VISAGIE: Good question. I think a few things. The one is that when you repeat these surveys over time, you get more confidence if the numbers remain consistent over a period of time. What we see with the quarterly labour force statistics is that Cape Town does perform consistently better than the other metros. I think eThekwini performs okay, but I would be surprised if it were the number one performer. We would need more of these surveys to take place and then compare averaging over at least a year or two-year period.<\/p>\n
The second is that we can use other sources of data. I\u2019m involved with a project where we actually mine tax returns, and this is very accurate, because in some ways it\u2019s a whole universe of formal employment.<\/p>\n
When you look at and you measure employment in terms of tax data, in terms of our cities, what we see is Cape Town has performed number one since 2014 to date, that\u2019s when the data period starts.<\/p>\n
Tshwane is number two, and eThekwini is number three. So it\u2019s true, eThekwini has been performing a bit better. But as I\u2019ve said, I wouldn\u2019t over-bloat the story to say eThekwini is now number one.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Let\u2019s give KwaZulu-Natal, though, the benefit of the doubt \u2013 and maybe just because I spent a couple of very happy years working there \u2013 but your broader research also shows that Durban still has a substantial base in trade services, public and social services, I think you list, I think you might add to that list, manufacturing and logistics. Are you able to tell us then which of those sectors is actually producing real, meaningful jobs?<\/p>\n
JUSTIN VISAGIE: Yes. Again, an important question. We can certainly use the tax data, which is very granular, to get a better picture of what\u2019s driving growth in our different cities. Again, I think it\u2019s important to emphasise that they don\u2019t have to compete with one another. There\u2019s a lot of politics around the numbers and who\u2019s better and who\u2019s worse.<\/p>\n
But I think everyone in South Africa really has an incentive for all our cities to do better. So eThekwini can do well, and that can actually drive growth in other parts of the country.<\/p>\n
eThekwini\u2019s strength has definitely been its manufacturing base and, in fact, fairly diversified, not just one particular manufacturing industry.<\/p>\n
Like you see, for instance, in Nelson Mandela Bay, where it\u2019s automotive heavy, Ekurhuleni has tended to be more around heavy industry, eThekwini has more of a diversified sector, so that\u2019s its strength.<\/p>\n
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But the truth is that all manufacturing industries have actually been in trouble in South Africa over the last decade, and so the automotive industry has done a little bit better. In eThekwini, you also see food and beverages performing better, but then in other sectors, the decline in clothing and textiles, for instance.<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:
July 2026 Absa PMI shows manufacturing employment stall despite upticks
Nelson Mandela Bay a new growth centre for BPO sector<\/p>\n
eThekwini does have a manufacturing future. But it\u2019s certainly under a process of pressure and change and evolution, and it does need to diversify into places where it can compete and export on a global level. That\u2019s ultimately what we\u2019re looking for.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Surely the fact that it has the country\u2019s busiest port must, in one way or another, count in its favour, maybe just because of the ancillary industries that occupy space around that.<\/p>\n
JUSTIN VISAGIE: Definitely. Again, this is a story of some of South Africa\u2019s biggest economic woes over the last 10 to even 20 years has been that we haven\u2019t looked after our state-owned enterprises. Eskom is the prime example, and I think that Transnet doesn\u2019t fall too far away from that.<\/p>\n
I remain optimistic that we have been under a process of reform since we\u2019ve had a coalition government, and I think there\u2019s been a heightened appreciation that you need the right skills leading these key state entities. Because if you don\u2019t get that public infrastructure working, clearly, so many businesses depend on it.<\/p>\n
eThekwini\u2019s port is the busiest port in Africa, a key entryway into Gauteng. Again, it\u2019s not going anywhere, but I think that if anything, we haven\u2019t invested enough in our new infrastructure, and it can become a drain rather than a springboard for the future.<\/p>\n
So it\u2019s very important that that infrastructure gets turned around and that we focus on Transnet and the performance of Transnet to be more competitive.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Justin, just a quick one in conclusion, is there anything that the other metros can specifically learn from what Cape Town is doing?<\/p>\n
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JUSTIN VISAGIE: Each metro faces a unique situation. So in some ways it\u2019s a bit unfair to compare them. For instance, Cape Town, in terms of its demographic base, has always had a more educated population. So in some ways, they\u2019re lucky. Whereas eThekwini, for instance, I think actually has a large rural population as part of its base.<\/p>\n
So all the metros have different baselines, and sometimes this means they have unique circumstances. But there are key lessons, and I think what Cape Town has done very well is in doing the basics right. They\u2019ve invested a lot of infrastructure in terms of performance and monitoring, and a system of integrated governance across all of their line departments that line up.<\/p>\n
Whereas some of the other metros, Johannesburg is a prime example, have tended to have silos. Multiple entities, multiple leadership bodies are often at cross-purposes with one another, and not enough of a clear line of sight of deliverables on the ground.<\/p>\n
Read:
Western Cape municipalities are pulling away from the rest of the country \u2013 Ratings Afrika
Governance gap leaves Johannesburg R200.9bn behind Cape Town
Auditor-General posts another miserable scorecard for municipalities<\/p>\n
So for eThekwini, and the readers might be aware of the Presidential eThekwini Working Group (PeWG) that\u2019s been working for the last two years, these are important initiatives where we don\u2019t just think about different departments in isolation of one another, but you\u2019ve got to stitch it up together that the investment in road, rail, water, utilities and other industrial incentives all come together, working in the same direction.<\/p>\n
I think Cape Town is a prime example of doing that very well in terms of its integrated governance model.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Justin Visagie, associate professor at the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies. Thank you very much.<\/p>\n
#Cape #Town #leads #jobs #race #eThekwini #learn<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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