<\/p>\n
To some investors, SpaceX (SPCX) shares have already lost their shine. Now a fresh warning is landing at the worst possible moment.<\/p>\n
The stock closed at $134 on Thursday, Aug. 20, down about 6% over the past five days and roughly 17% for the year so far. <\/p>\n
That is a long way from the $225.64 high it touched days after its June debut.<\/p>\n
Most of Wall Street still tells clients to buy. One analyst in Germany just told them to sell.<\/p>\n
That single call, paired with a wave of freshly unlocked shares hitting the market, is the reason SpaceX investors are paying close attention this week. <\/p>\n
Here is what the warning says, and what it means if you own the stock.<\/p>\n
Why DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner rates SpaceX a Sell<\/p>\n
DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner started covering SpaceX with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, according to 24\/7 Wall St.<\/p>\n
From Aug. 20’s $134 close, that target points to a drop of about 25%.<\/p>\n
Leistner warned of what he called “crash risk in the valuation orbit.”<\/p>\n
His point is simple. The money SpaceX must spend to build its future businesses is so large that today’s price is hard to defend.<\/p>\n
That view puts him nearly alone. <\/p>\n
SPCX carries a Moderate Buy rating, with an average target of $228.59. Leistner sits at the very bottom of that range.<\/p>\n
SpaceX stock now trades well below its June IPO high as new share supply and a bearish analyst call collide.<\/p>\n
Justin Sullivan \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
The spending problem behind the $100 SpaceX target<\/p>\n
The core of Leistner’s argument is the cash SpaceX is spending.<\/p>\n
SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capital projects in the second quarter, with $15.83 billion of that going to AI computing infrastructure, Reuters reported. <\/p>\n
The company’s management also guided the next two quarters to a similar level.<\/p>\n
Capital expenditure is the money a company spends building long-term assets such as data centers and rockets. SpaceX is spending it faster than the business currently earns.<\/p>\n
The company also lost $541 million in the second quarter, even as revenue jumped.<\/p>\n
More SpaceX Stocks:<\/p>\n
Peter Schiff says SpaceX is a warning for hyped stocks<\/p>\n
Former Fidelity manager sends troubling SpaceX signal<\/p>\n
Nvidia just took a very serious step on SpaceX stock<\/p>\n
Then there is the deal-making.<\/p>\n
SpaceX closed a $60 billion all-stock purchase of AI coding platform Cursor on Aug. 14, issuing about 389 million new Class A shares, Investing.com reported.<\/p>\n
When a company pays with new stock, existing shareholders own a smaller slice of the same business. <\/p>\n
That is dilution, and it is a direct cost to current holders.<\/p>\n
SpaceX also approached AI startup Cognition, valued near $26 billion, before those talks ended. <\/p>\n
To Leistner, the pattern signals an appetite for large, stock-funded deals.<\/p>\n
What the AI math has to prove<\/p>\n
Leistner also questions the $28.5 trillion total addressable market SpaceX laid out in its IPO filing, a figure that counts space, connectivity, and AI.<\/p>\n
A total addressable market is the full revenue a company could earn if it captured every possible customer. It is a ceiling, not a forecast.<\/p>\n
AI makes up about 93% of that $28.5 trillion claim. Space and connectivity, the parts making real money today, are under 7%.<\/p>\n
So the valuation leans heavily on a business that must still prove it can deliver years of profit.<\/p>\n
The share unlock making the timing worse<\/p>\n
The Sell call did not arrive on a quiet day.<\/p>\n
SpaceX’s second post-IPO lockup tranche took effect on Aug. 20, freeing up to 319 million restricted shares.<\/p>\n
That’s about 7% of the shares under the 180-day lock-up, GuruFocus reported.<\/p>\n
A lockup expiration lets employees and early backers sell shares they were previously barred from selling. More sellers can mean more downward pressure on the price.<\/p>\n
Related: Jim Cramer sees the writing on the wall for SpaceX investors<\/p>\n
The first unlock on Aug. 6 was far larger at 911.5 million shares, and the market absorbed it without a collapse.<\/p>\n
This time the added supply arrived alongside a high-profile Sell rating, and the stock slipped below its $135 IPO price.<\/p>\n
More unlocks are coming. The lockup releases shares across more than a dozen dates rather than all at once, so holders face repeated waves of new supply into late 2026.<\/p>\n
One name is not selling. CEO Elon Musk, who owns about 48% of SpaceX and controls more than four-fifths of the voting power, is restricted from selling until June 12, 2027.<\/p>\n
Where DZ Bank sits against the rest of Wall Street<\/p>\n
Leistner is the most bearish major voice, but he is not the only skeptic.<\/p>\n
Five-star Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum holds a Sell rating and a $75 target, citing customer concentration and contracts that clients can exit on 90 days’ notice.<\/p>\n
The bulls sit far higher. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas rates SpaceX a Buy with a $300 base target, pointing to Starlink cash flow and AI upside.<\/p>\n
Here is how the split looks right now:<\/p>\n
SpaceX price targets from bears to bulls<\/p>\n
DZ Bank (Markus Leistner): Sell, $100, due to heavy capital spending and dilutive deals<\/p>\n
Phillip Securities (Glenn Thum): Sell, $75, due to customer concentration and cancelable contracts<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas): Buy, $300 base, due to Starlink cash flow and AI growth<\/p>\n
Wall Street average: $228.59<\/p>\n
The distance between $75 and $300 is unusually wide, and it tells you how much division exists on what SpaceX is worth.<\/p>\n
SpaceX stock vs. the S&P 500<\/p>\n
A quick comparison shows how differently SpaceX has traded from the broad market.<\/p>\n
Year to date, SpaceX is down about 17%. The S&P 500 has held up far better over the same stretch.<\/p>\n
Over the past five days, SpaceX fell about 6%, while the index moved only modestly.<\/p>\n
The point is that SpaceX swings much harder than the market in both directions, so it behaves like a high-growth technology bet rather than a steady industrial holding.<\/p>\n
What SpaceX holders can do now<\/p>\n
For anyone holding the stock, the practical questions come down to time frame and tolerance for large price swings.<\/p>\n
Key points for SpaceX shareholders<\/p>\n
More supply is scheduled. Additional lockup tranches unlock across late 2026, which can keep pressure on the price, even without bad news.<\/p>\n
Spending must turn into profit. SpaceX guided to sustained multibillion-dollar capex, so the AI bet has to convert into durable earnings.<\/p>\n
The bull case is long-dated. Morgan Stanley’s target rests on growth years out, not this quarter.<\/p>\n
None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell. <\/p>\n
A long-term holder who believes in Starlink and the AI push may look past this unlock-driven weakness. To them, it is a short-term problem.<\/p>\n
Anyone who prefers lower risk has real reasons for caution. The repeated share supply and the negative earnings are real risks, not distractions.<\/p>\n
Two things are worth watching over the coming quarters. <\/p>\n
Whether SpaceX turns its cloud contracts into multi-year deals instead of ones clients can exit in 90 days<\/p>\n
Whether insiders actually sell as more shares unlock, or hold like they did after the Aug. 6 release<\/p>\n
Those two answers will tell you more than any single price target.<\/p>\n
Related: Louis Navellier sets eye-opening Nvidia stock price target for rest of this year<\/p>\n
#Top #analyst #sees #trouble #looming #SpaceX #stock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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