<\/p>\n
The City of Cape Town\u2019s plan to build a desalination plant at Paarden Eiland has been scuttled by Transnet\u2019s intention to expand the port.<\/p>\n
Tabling the latest Water Outlook report on 21 August, Mayco member for water and sanitation Zahid Badroodien told council that the search is on for \u201calternative locations\u201d for the permanent desalination plant.<\/p>\n
Besides possible cost implications, the outlook report states that finding a suitable alternative site and conducting the necessary environmental impact assessment \u2013 the scoping phase of which had already been completed for Paarden Eiland \u2013 will push the project back five years.<\/p>\n
Read: What Cape Town can do to save water<\/p>\n
The report notes that a 70-million-litre-per-day desalination plant is a critical part of the city\u2019s New Water Programme, which aims to add 300 million litres of water per day in addition to Cape Town\u2019s six supply dams.<\/p>\n
In addition to the desalination plant, the programme includes using groundwater, reusing wastewater and pumping water from the Berg River into Vo\u00eblvlei Dam, adding 40 million litres a day.<\/p>\n
Currently, the only one of these initiatives delivering any water is the boreholes drawing from the Table Mountain Group aquifer in the upper Steenbras area above Sir Lowry\u2019s Pass.<\/p>\n
Abstracting groundwater from the Atlantis aquifer has been set back by cable theft. Boreholes and water treatment on the Cape Flats aquifer are still being built.<\/p>\n
Read:
City of Cape Town\u2019s desalination plant is six years away
Cape Town\u2019s water use remains too high despite Day Zero lessons<\/p>\n
The Berg River-Vo\u00eblvlei scheme has also suffered setbacks.<\/p>\n
The R1.85 billion build was meant to be completed by 2023. This was revised to 2027. The Water Outlook report states completion is now expected in 2030. The scheme is managed by the national Department of Water and Sanitation, not the city.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Cape Town\u2019s increasing water usage means its maximum allocation from Western Cape dams will be reached within two years. These dams also supply other towns and agriculture, so not all the water they hold is available to Cape Town, which receives an allocation determined by the national government.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
The New Water Programme was developed in the wake of the 2018 \u2018Day Zero\u2019 crisis, but its set of initiatives is only expected to be operating by 2036 at best.<\/p>\n
Low rainfall season<\/p>\n
Cape Town has had a drier-than-usual rain season, with the South African Weather Service (SAWS) noting in a\u00a0statement released on 31 July: \u201cBelow-normal rainfall was observed in June and persisted into July, with several parts of the region recording their lowest rainfall on record during July.\u201d<\/p>\n
Cape Town\u2019s supply dams do not rely on rain falling on Cape Town, but on the mountains between Stellenbosch and Worcester.<\/p>\n
SAWS client liaison officer Robin-Lee Batties said August rainfall over Franschhoek had been drier than usual, and Villiersdorp, next to Theewaterskloof Dam \u2013 Cape Town\u2019s biggest supply dam \u2013 had one of the lowest July rainfall measurements since the opening of the weather station in 2011, and August rainfall has also been lower than usual.<\/p>\n
Read:<\/p>\n
South Africa gets its first climate index to track weather risks
\nHow extreme weather is undermining South Africa\u2019s economy<\/p>\n
Although cumulative dam levels were at 77% on 24 August (the latest reading at time of writing), the graph has taken a downward trend and has entered what the city calls \u201cearly drought caution\u201d.<\/p>\n
The city\u2019s Open Data Portal shows the last time the dams were lower than this on 24 August was in 2018 when they were at 61%. But they had risen to that level from a 20% historic low at the end of summer that year, which was when Cape Town was staring down \u201cDay Zero\u201d.<\/p>\n
The low point this past summer was around 45%, meaning the dam levels have risen by about 30 percentage points over the winter.<\/p>\n
Most of that water came in the form of floods, and at a high cost. The loss of farmland, homes, roads and other infrastructure caused by the floods was estimated to be almost R10 billion, Premier Alan Winde\u00a0said earlier this month.<\/p>\n
People collecting water at the Newlands Spring in Cape Town in February 2018. Image: Ashraf Hendricks\/GroundUp<\/p>\n
Climate change impact<\/p>\n
The floods resulted from a cut-off low-pressure system, which released heavy rains over a short period.<\/p>\n
Cape Town\u2019s rainfall comes mostly from low-pressure systems that move up from the Southern Ocean and sweep across the south-western Cape. But these systems have been forced further south by South Atlantic high-pressure cells, which should normally move northwards in winter.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have evidence that the South Atlantic High-pressure Cell is increasing in strength, and that doesn\u2019t augur well for the frequency of fronts in the future,\u201d UCT climatologist Dr Peter Johnston stated in 2021.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
Read: From day zero to El Ni\u00f1o, the next drought could be worse than we think<\/p>\n
Western Cape government chief director of environmental sustainability Karen Shippey said at a 27 August briefing that human-induced climate change is resulting in increasingly frequent and intense droughts, more hot days and fewer cold days, reduced rainfall, and a shift in wind speed and variability.<\/p>\n
Shippey said last year we had gusts five times the average wind speed.<\/p>\n
The long-term climate change scenario is echoed by the city and the Water Outlook report, which states: \u201cSingle \u2018cut-off low\u2019 storm events are increasingly determining seasonal rainfall totals \u2013 making seasonal forecasting even less reliable.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rise in water demand<\/p>\n
One dry winter season does not mean Cape Town will run out of water, but two or three in succession creates a serious water shortage. This was the case in the lead-up to \u201cDay Zero\u201d in 2018.<\/p>\n
But last season\u2019s rainfall was also low.<\/p>\n
The cumulative rainfall at Wemmershoek, within the dam catchment area for 2025 was less than that received in 2016, and only slightly higher than the rain received in 2015 and 2017.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, by GroundUp\u2019s calculations, Cape Town\u2019s average water use has risen 50% over the last nine years.<\/p>\n
In September 2017, when the city implemented severe level 5 water restrictions, usage was about 570 million litres a day. Last week, the city was using about 850 million litres a day.<\/p>\n
Read:
Right of reply: City of Cape Town on desalination plant water safety standards
Cape Town\u2019s proposed desalination plant could be costly and risky
Construction on Cape Town\u2019s desalination plant set to start in 2026<\/p>\n
Consumption is more than double what the city assumed, given that Cape Town\u2019s population growth over the same period has been about 22%, according to best estimates from available statistics.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe 2025\/26 rate of water demand growth is unsustainable and is more than three times the average ten-year growth rate proposed in the Water Conservation and Water Demand Management Strategy, and more than double the Bulk Water and Water Strategy\u2019s planning assumptions,\u201d states the Water Outlook report.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
However, before the 2018 water shortage, Cape Town was using as much as 1.2 billion litres of water a day in 2015, which fell drastically to around 500 million litres per day when dam levels were hovering at 20%.<\/p>\n
Long, hot summer ahead<\/p>\n
At the 27 August Western Cape government briefing, Winde said the\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern is expected to peak in the coming months.<\/p>\n
Winde said this would likely mean hotter days and \u201cextreme heat\u201d, increased fire risk, and increased strain on water resources.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe convergence of extreme El Ni\u00f1o weather patterns and climate change presents an unprecedented threat to our biodiversity, water security, and our local communities,\u201d said DA provincial environmental affairs spokesperson Dave Bryant in the provincial legislature.<\/p>\n
As a result, the fire season has been extended from four months to eight months, stretching from October to the end of May.<\/p>\n
Read:<\/p>\n
Will El Ni\u00f1o drought hit food prices in South Africa?<\/p>\n
However, El Ni\u00f1o may give Cape Town catchments a wetter than normal September and October.<\/p>\n
The SAWS forecast for August to December indicates \u201cfavourable rainfall conditions over the winter rainfall areas\u201d for the end of winter and start of spring.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe anticipated favourable rainfall conditions during August-September-October, which signals the end of the winter season, are likely to boost surface runoff into dams and reservoirs, possibly benefiting water storage capacity,\u201d states the weather service report.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, both the city and provincial authorities say while there is no immediate risk to supply at the moment, water restrictions in coming months are likely.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 GroundUp. This article was first published\u00a0here.<\/p>\n
#Cape #Town #desalination #plans #delayed #water #demand #soars<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The City of Cape Town\u2019s plan to build a desalination plant at Paarden Eiland has…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[2798,2250,1474,4823,2754,1206,2799,1392],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14990"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}