{"id":1523,"date":"2026-03-16T09:39:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:39:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=1523"},"modified":"2026-03-16T09:39:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:39:10","slug":"ray-dalio-thinks-the-world-looks-like-pre-1945-times-as-we-near-the-end-of-his-big-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=1523","title":{"rendered":"Ray Dalio thinks the world looks like ‘pre-1945 times’ as we near the end of his ‘Big Cycle’"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Good morning. How will AI impact Ray Dalio\u2019s prognosis for the economy? The Bridgewater founder published a piece in Fortune this weekend, in which he argues that we are in stage 5 of what he calls the \u201cBig Cycle.\u201d (The global macro investor has studied the six stages of how major empires rise and fall, with stage 5 being the period prior to collapse.)<\/p>\n

Dalio writes that \u201cit is indisputably clear that what is happening now is more analogous to pre-1945 times than the post-1945 times that we have gotten used to, which misleads most people\u2019s expectations and causes them to be shocked about what\u2019s happening.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among the hallmarks of stage 5:<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cLarge and rapidly rising government debts and geopolitical conflicts that lead to concerns about the value of and security of money, especially of the reserve currency, which drives a movement out of fiat currencies and into gold.\u201d (Gold prices are up 70% over the past year.)<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cLarge income, wealth, and values gaps within countries that lead to the rise of populism of the right and populism of the left and irreconcilable differences that can\u2019t be resolved with compromises and rule of law.\u201d (The income gap has increased and, well, look around.)<\/p>\n

\u201cThe movement from a world order with a dominant power and relative peace to a world order that reflects a great powers conflict.\u201d (Iran could be the final blow to the WTO-based world order.)<\/p>\n

Other forces could disrupt or accelerate the Big Cycle: AI is creating a drastic shift of wealth, with the potential to destroy jobs unlike anything we\u2019ve experienced before. Artificial general intelligence could materially change the structure of money and nature of growth while creating faster and more volatile cycles. And one other factor comes to mind, following a fascinating discussion at the Explorers Club on Friday with NYU glaciologist David Holland about the \u201cdoomsday\u201d Thwaites glacier in Antarctica: The accelerating pace of climate change, if not addressed, could make that coveted stage 1 seem even further away.<\/p>\n

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com<\/p>\n

Top leadership news<\/p>\n

Palantir CEO says Defense Department isn\u2019t using AI for citizen surveillance<\/p>\n

Palantir CEO Alex Karp told Fortune that the Defense Department isn\u2019t using\u2014and won\u2019t use, to his knowledge\u2014AI for domestic surveillance. However, Karp expressed support for the use of AI tools in military partnerships abroad and argued that other nations\u2019 militaries will do the same.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s AI Czar says country should find exit in Iran<\/p>\n

Venture capitalist and Trump AI czar David Sacks told the All-In podcast that \u201cwe should probably find the off-ramp\u201d in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Sacks claimed that Iran\u2019s military has already been devastated, but certain groups within the Republican Party want to see even further military escalation.<\/p>\n

Meta is flattening its corporate structure<\/p>\n

Meta is doubling its employee-to-manager ratio to 50-1 per the Wall Street Journal, joining a wave of other companies who are looking to make decision-making more efficient and cut costs. Andr\u00e9 Spicer, executive dean of Bayes Business School in London and a professor of organizational behavior, says the move will \u201cend in tragedy in the bottom line.\u201d<\/p>\n

The markets<\/p>\n

S&P 500 futures are up 0.4%, following a 0.6% drop before the weekend. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 fell 0.1%, South Korea\u2019s KOSPI is up 1.1%, and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index is up 1.5%. BYD, CATL and Xiaomi, all Chinese manufacturers working with green products, rose\u00a0by over 5% in Hong Kong trading. India\u2019s NIFTY 50 is flat; the STOXX Europe 600 is also flat in early trading. WTI Crude passed $100\/barrel, Bitcoin is hovering just above $73,000.<\/p>\n

Around the watercooler<\/p>\n

The $265 billion private credit meltdown: How Wall Street\u2019s hottest investment craze turned into a panic by Shawn Tully<\/p>\n

\u2018Peak war panic\u2019 will likely hit financial markets in 1-3 weeks, strategist predicts, as Trump says he doesn\u2019t want to make a deal with Iran yet by Jason Ma<\/p>\n

How Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman found her ideal job: \u2018I realized I liked risk-taking more than risk management\u2019 by Sheryl Estrada<\/p>\n

After 93 years and a 25-hour filibuster, Washington finally has an income tax, and billionaires are already packing their bags by Catherina Gioino<\/p>\n

Americans are demanding refunds from the $180 billion in tariffs they paid for, and they\u2019re suing companies like Costco to make it happen by Sasha Rogelberg<\/p>\n

\u2018Raise a lobster\u2019: How OpenClaw is the latest craze transforming China\u2019s AI sector by Nicholas Gordon<\/p>\n

Today’s edition of CEO Daily was compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Nicholas Gordon and Lee Clifford.<\/p>\n

#Ray #Dalio #thinks #world #pre1945 #times #Big #Cycle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning. How will AI impact Ray Dalio\u2019s prognosis for the economy? The Bridgewater founder…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[245],"tags":[237,1277,3448,3445,3447,2681,3446,828,51],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1523"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1523\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}