<\/p>\n
South Africa\u2019s foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak is no longer simply an animal health problem. Its consequences are being felt across the country\u2019s livestock supply chain, from farms and abattoirs to cold stores, transporters, exporters and international markets.<\/p>\n
The scale of the disruption is significant. A January 2026 study by the\u00a0Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy estimates the five-year cost of the crisis to South Africa\u2019s livestock sector at R13.1 billion, including R11.3 billion in lost production and R1.8 billion in lost export revenue.<\/p>\n
The government declared FMD a national disaster in February 2026. While much of the coverage has understandably focused on animal health, the economic consequences highlight another problem: the vulnerability of the supply chains that move livestock and meat from producer to market.<\/p>\n
From farm disruption to supply chain failure<\/p>\n
Strip away the animal health framing and the government\u2019s response reads like a textbook supply chain operation. When an outbreak triggers movement restrictions or export market closures, the disruption quickly moves through the wider supply chain.<\/p>\n
Animals cannot necessarily move as planned, abattoir throughput can be affected, finished meat may have nowhere to go and cold storage facilities can become holding points rather than links in a continuous export chain.<\/p>\n
Read:
Aucamp opens door to private foot-and-mouth vaccinations
SA\u2019s red meat export recovery hinges on FMD traceability<\/p>\n
The consequences are already visible in export figures.\u00a0Beef exports\u00a0are estimated to have fallen by 26% year on year, while some categories of bovine meat exports were down 56.6% by mid-2026.<\/p>\n
Exports to some Middle Eastern markets have reportedly fallen by between 65% and 95%. For businesses operating along the chain, this creates a much different risk profile from a conventional production disruption.<\/p>\n
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The problem is not simply whether meat can be produced, but whether it can be moved, certified, stored and ultimately accepted by the intended market.<\/p>\n
Keeping markets open<\/p>\n
The international response has also demonstrated the importance of trade compliance and certification. Some markets have closed their borders to South African beef, while others have remained open under revised certification arrangements.<\/p>\n
China, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia and the UK have maintained restrictions on South African beef since January 2025, while markets including the UAE, Jordan, Hong Kong and Kuwait have continued accepting products under revised conditions.<\/p>\n
Maintaining access to those markets requires coordination between veterinary authorities, exporters, regulators and trade-compliance specialists.<\/p>\n
For exporters, certification is not an administrative afterthought. It is part of the supply chain. If documentation cannot be issued in time, a shipment can be delayed even when the physical product is ready to move.<\/p>\n
That creates knock-on consequences for transport planning, inventory, cold storage, production scheduling and customer relationships.<\/p>\n
Traceability becomes critical<\/p>\n
One of the longer-term challenges is traceability. South Africa\u2019s livestock traceability system remains largely voluntary, with the Red Meat Industry Services playing a central role.<\/p>\n
The absence of a comprehensive mandatory national system makes it more difficult to establish quickly where animals have moved and which parts of the supply chain may have been exposed.<\/p>\n
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During an outbreak, that information becomes critical. Effective traceability can help authorities identify affected animals, isolate potentially exposed populations and limit restrictions to the areas or supply chains that actually present a risk.<\/p>\n
Without sufficiently detailed movement data, the response can become broader and more disruptive than necessary.<\/p>\n
Read: FMD in SA: How a tracking system would control outbreaks<\/p>\n
The FMD crisis therefore highlights a wider supply chain principle: visibility is a form of risk management. Knowing where an animal has been, which facilities it has passed through and where its products are ultimately destined can determine how quickly a disruption can be contained.<\/p>\n
A multidisciplinary supply chain challenge<\/p>\n
The lessons from FMD extend well beyond agriculture. Producers need systems that improve traceability and risk management. Abattoirs and processors need to manage changing throughput and market requirements.<\/p>\n
Cold chain operators need to respond to shifting inventory flows. Exporters must manage certification and market-access requirements, while retailers and other buyers need contingency plans when established sources become unavailable.<\/p>\n
These are increasingly multidisciplinary supply chain challenges involving agriculture, logistics, technology, regulation, international trade and risk management.<\/p>\n
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They also demonstrate why supply chain professionals need more than an understanding of transport and warehousing. They need to understand how disruption in one part of a network can propagate through the entire system.<\/p>\n
Read: \u2018Consequences are dire\u2019 if new agriculture minister doesn\u2019t address FMD bottlenecks<\/p>\n
For South African businesses, the FMD crisis provides a particularly clear example of why supply chain risk management and resilience have become strategic rather than purely operational concerns.<\/p>\n
Professionals working across agriculture, logistics, retail, manufacturing and international trade increasingly need the ability to analyse complex supply networks, understand regulatory and market risks and make decisions when normal supply routes are disrupted.<\/p>\n
This is an area in which specialist education can play a role.\u00a0IMM Graduate School\u00a0offers supply chain qualifications covering areas including supply chain management, international trade, risk management, analytics and strategic decision-making. Selected qualifications are accredited by the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport International.<\/p>\n
The FMD crisis demonstrates that supply chain resilience cannot be built only when a crisis arrives. Traceability, contingency planning, market diversification, cold chain capacity and effective information flows all need to be developed before disruption occurs.<\/p>\n
Ernst van Biljon is the Dean of Research at IMM Graduate School.<\/p>\n
Read:
Private sector warns SA\u2019s foot-and-mouth plan risks collapse
Private sector involvement critical to halt FMD spread, warn farmers<\/p>\n
#Footandmouth #disease #supply #chain #crisis #farming #problem<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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