<\/p>\n
With a market cap of $1.91 trillion, SpaceX is among the most valuable companies in the world.<\/p>\n
SpaceX (SPCX) listed on the Nasdaq in June 2026, raising over $75 billion in its initial public offering. <\/p>\n
Last month, New York University marketing professor Scott Galloway said Wall Street has gotten the math badly wrong on SpaceX, and he is not shy about putting a number on just how wrong.<\/p>\n
SpaceX stock price target sits far below market<\/p>\n
In a recent podcast, Galloway said that SpaceX shares are worth somewhere between $10 and $30. <\/p>\n
At the time of writing, SPCX stock trades at $148, which means Galloway believes the stock could fall 80% from current levels without undervaluing the company.<\/p>\n
According to Business Insider, Galloway said:<\/p>\n
“It’s still crazy overvalued. I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”<\/p>\n
Here is what makes his call notable. <\/p>\n
SpaceX priced its initial public offering at $135 a share in the summer, giving Musk’s rocket company a valuation near $1.8 trillion. <\/p>\n
The stock then climbed as high as $225 before tumbling over 50% to $105. It has since recovered and has traded above its IPO price in the last two weeks.<\/p>\n
Galloway argues that price action has little to do with the underlying business. He pointed to a few mechanical quirks in how the stock trades:<\/p>\n
Only about 4-5% of SpaceX shares were available for public trading right after the IPO, which limited supply. <\/p>\n
The stock’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 forced index funds to buy shares regardless of price.<\/p>\n
SpaceX priced a $25 billion bond offering less than two weeks after going public, even though it was sitting on more than $100 billion in cash.<\/p>\n
The debt sale, Galloway said, tells investors this is really an AI infrastructure bet wearing a rocket company’s uniform.<\/p>\n
“Musk will go down as the greatest engineer of our time, but as a financial engineer,” Galloway said in the episode, according to Business Insider.<\/p>\n
Scott Galloway is bearish on SpaceX stock<\/p>\n
picture alliance \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
What the SpaceX financials show<\/p>\n
Galloway’s skepticism aligns with SpaceX’s financials. <\/p>\n
Given data from Fiscal.ai, SpaceX sales have grown from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $23 billion in the last 12 months. <\/p>\n
It reported a net loss of $4.6 billion in 2023 and $4.9 billion in 2025. Over the last 12-months, its net losses have totaled $8.2 billion. <\/p>\n
In the trailing 12-month period, SpaceX reported an operating margin of -16.2%. <\/p>\n
SpaceX burned through $31.2 billion in free cash flow on a trailing basis, driven partly by $41.1 billion in capital expenditures, largely tied to AI compute buildout. <\/p>\n
Related: SpaceX is now in your 401(k), and Musk is the risk<\/p>\n
The company ended with $100 billion in cash, much of it raised through the IPO and that bond sale. <\/p>\n
In the second quarter earnings call, CFO Bret Johnsen said the AI compute spending is paying back in under a year. <\/p>\n
Notably, Johnsen explained that this kind of capital deployment behaves more like cost of goods sold than a traditional long-term investment, since it needs to keep being replenished to sustain growth.<\/p>\n
Another Musk bear sees more pain ahead<\/p>\n
Galloway is not alone in his bearish call. <\/p>\n
George Noble, the former manager of Fidelity Overseas Fund, told Business Insider that SpaceX and Tesla represent “two of the best shorts in the market.” <\/p>\n
Noble expects SpaceX to fall by as much as 50% by year-end and thinks both companies should trade near $30 a share, an 80% drop for SpaceX.<\/p>\n
“Grandma’s 401(k) now owns a $2 trillion company at roughly 90 times revenues. That’s outrageous,” Noble told Business Insider.<\/p>\n
Consensus estimates compiled by Tikr.com show analysts tracking SpaceX stock forecast revenue to increase from $44.63 billion in 2026 to $388 billion in 2030. <\/p>\n
The space-tech giant is projected to report a cumulative free cash outflow of roughly $280 billion through 2030.<\/p>\n
More SpaceX:<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley doubles down on SpaceX stock for investors<\/p>\n
SpaceX analyst plots path to bold $100 billion claim<\/p>\n
JPMorgan resets SpaceX price target after earnings<\/p>\n
It suggests the company will have to raise debt or equity capital to sustain its cash burn rates, which will dilute existing shareholder wealth. <\/p>\n
Out of the 34 analysts covering SpaceX stock, 25 recommend “Buy”, six recommend “Hold”, and three recommend “Sell”. <\/p>\n
The average SPCX stock price target is $228, which is 52% above the current price. <\/p>\n
Despite his own $10 to $30 estimate, Galloway said he would not actually short SpaceX. Musk’s ability to excite investors with a new project, he joked, could send the stock higher again “regardless of its fundamentals.”<\/p>\n
“I wouldn’t get near this thing,” Galloway said, adding it could turn into a meme stock if Musk announces something like quantum computing on the moon. <\/p>\n
For now, the gap between what Galloway sees on paper and what the market is paying remains enormous. <\/p>\n
Investors betting on SpaceX are, in effect, betting that Musk’s next act outruns the balance sheet.<\/p>\n
Related: Elon Musk drops stunning SpaceX forecast<\/p>\n
#Scott #Galloway #issues #grim #SpaceX #stock #price #forecast<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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