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Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio published a dire warning Monday: the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran will be a decisive confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, and the outcome will determine far more than the price of oil. It will determine whether the American-led global order survives.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz,\u201d Dalio wrote in a lengthy post on X. If Iran retains the ability to control, or even negotiate over, who passes through the Strait\u2014through which roughly a fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply flows daily\u2014Dalio argues the U.S. will be seen as having lost the war, regardless of how the conflict is resolved.<\/p>\n
Dalio compared a potential U.S. failure at Hormuz to Britain\u2019s humiliation during the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis, a moment widely regarded by historians as the end of the British Empire\u2019s global imperialism. He pointed to a pattern he says has repeated across 500 years of history: a rising power challenges the dominant empire over a critical trade route while the world watches, and money and alliances shift fast toward whoever wins.<\/p>\n
When that dominant power, the holder of the world\u2019s reserve currency, is \u201coverextended financially,\u201d as Dalio has often argued (including recently in Fortune) and then \u201creveals its weakness\u201d by losing control over the conflict. \u201cWatch out for allies and creditors losing confidence, the loss of its reserve currency status, the selling of its debt assets, and the weakening of its currency, especially relative to gold,\u201d he wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The post arrives at a moment of confusion around who has control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait has been effectively closed for its third week, though there are signs that a small trickle of vessels getting through. President Trump disparaged American allies throughout the weekend, and then again on Monday afternoon for failing to provide military support to help secure the waterway. He then reversed course and said that the U.S. didn\u2019t \u201cneed anybody\u201d and was the strongest country in the world. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz \u201cis open and only closed to enemies.\u201d Unresolved questions remain on whether Iran mined the Strait, which would be an irreversible escalation if true.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Dalio framed both sides as locked into a conflict with no diplomatic exit. \u201cWhile there is talk of ending this war with an agreement, everyone knows that no agreement will resolve this war because agreements are worthless,\u201d he wrote, adding that whatever comes next\u2014whether the U.S. takes control of the strait or leaves it to Iran\u2014\u201dis likely to be the worst phase of the conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n
The core problem, Dalio said, is motivational asymmetry. For Iran\u2019s leadership, the war is \u201cexistential,\u201d a matter of regime survival, national pride, and religious commitment. For Americans, it\u2019s about gas prices, and for U.S. politicians, it\u2019s about the midterm elections. Dalio was clear over which side that calculus favors in a prolonged fight: \u201cIn war, one\u2019s ability to withstand pain is even more important than one\u2019s ability to inflict pain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s strategy, he says, is to inflict that pain for as long as possible, then wait for the U.S. to quit, just as it has done in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Trump is now calling on allied nations to join a multinational escort operation through the strait, though for the most part, they haven\u2019t yet been receptive. Dalio says it remains to be seen whether that effort can serve as a potential \u201csolution\u201d to getting the waterway reopened.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf President Trump demonstrates his and the U.S.\u2019s power to do what he said he would do, which is win this war by having free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Iran as a threat to its neighbors and the world, it will greatly bolster confidence in his and the U.S.\u2019s power.\u201d<\/p>\n
But if he doesn\u2019t, the ripple effects, on everything from trade flows, to capital markets and the dollar\u2019s reserve currency status, could irreparably damage American hegemony. Tehran has also threatened the dominance of the petrodollar by reportedly agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz to a limited number of oil tankers that trade in yuan rather than dollars.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cBoth sides know that the final battle, which will make clear which side won and which side lost, still lies ahead,\u201d Dalio wrote.<\/p>\n
#Ray #Dalio #warns #final #battle #Strait #Hormuz #coming<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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