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S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.14% this morning before the open; the index was up 1% yesterday. This morning, indexes in Asia and Europe followed suit, mostly going up. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was flat and China\u2019s CSI 300 sank by 0.73%. Oil was at $104 per barrel.<\/p>\n
Reality check: The S&P 500 has returned, on average, 15.5% returns per year over the last 10 years, and that just isn\u2019t sustainable, according to Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees strategies for nearly $200 billion in index funds and ETFs. Prepare for measly 3% returns ahead, he tells Fortune\u2019s Shawn Tully.<\/p>\n
IRANThere are backchannel talks between U.S. and Iran<\/p>\n
The start of the deal? U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have \u201creactivated\u201d contact with each other, according to Axios. The contact seems to be limited and fitful, but the crucial line in Axios\u2019 report is \u201cIran isn’t interested in a temporary ceasefire that would allow the U.S. and Israel to regroup and attack again, but wants guarantees that any peace deal would be permanent.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s an off-ramp, if President Trump wants it. And, given that the U.S.\u2019s allies have roundly rebuffed Trump\u2019s call for military help in the Gulf, he may be tempted to take it.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s military and much of its infrastructure is now in ruins but Tehran\u2019s resistance has confounded Trump, who has publicly stated he thinks Iran should reach a \u201cdeal\u201d with him. The problem, according to Fortune\u2019s Nick Lichtenberg, is that Iran is unlike previous opponents that Trump has faced. Its 21-mile-wide chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf has no CEO to bully, no bondholder to threaten, and no shareholders to absorb the loss. The mullahs are immune to his usual leverage.<\/p>\n
Trump, however, is coming under pressure from the bond market. The supply of corporate bond sales\u2014spurred by capex from AI builders\u2014has flooded the market of late, pushing down prices and pushing up interest rates, making it more expensive for the U.S. to service its debt, according to Fortune\u2019s Jason Ma. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note last week that the 10-year yield climbed 6 basis points to 4.16% at session highs.<\/p>\n
Bank of America analyst Tom Curcuruto yesterday raised his estimate of debt issuance from the five large AI hyperscalers to $175 billion this year, up from $140 billion.
\nDiesel now costs $5 a gallon in the U.S., on average.<\/p>\n
Inconvenient: Trump has pushed back his planned meeting with China\u2019s Xi Jinping because of the war, Fortune\u2019s Angelica Ang reports.<\/p>\n
Boots on the ground, maybe: Macquarie analysts Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry noted that \u201cU.S. amphibious forces (and, possibly, those of allies) were going to the Gulf, presumably to secure Kharg Island and Iran’s oil export terminals on it.\u201d If U.S. forces destroyed the terminals, it would stop the 90% of Iran\u2019s crude oil that flows from that port. Alternatively, the U.S. might attempt to seize the island and preserve its capacity for a post-conflict deal, the Macquarie pair say. That would extend the length of the war: \u201cWhereas we may have thought that major hostilities would end at the end of March (a four-week war), the deployment of US Marines means that it may take longer, perhaps by another one or two weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n
CUBA?!Trump wants to \u2018take\u2019 Cuba next<\/p>\n
Talking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said it would be an \u201chonour\u201d if the U.S. ended up \u201ctaking Cuba, in some form.\u201d \u201cWhether I free it, take it, I think I could do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth. They are a very weakened nation right now,\u201d he said. Cuba\u2019s economy has been severely weakened after the U.S. blockaded it from its Venezuelan oil supplies.<\/p>\n
AINvidia\u2019s Huang crowns himself \u2018token king\u2019<\/p>\n
The 63-year-old, silver-haired Nvidia CEO didn’t break a sweat as he paced the stage and spoke for a continuous two-and-a-half hours on Monday at the company’s GTC developers conference, not even once bringing another exec on-stage to share the burden of presenting all the new products. At one point Huang even raised his hands above his head, fists clenched in a Rocky pose, and proclaimed himself the “token king.” I don’t think anyone would argue with the claim, Fortune\u2019s Alexei Oreskovic says.<\/p>\n
Be careful with those numbers: Huang said he expects $1 trillion in business by the end of 2027. Last year, at the conference, Huang said he expected $500 billion through 2026. The update is not the doubling of demand it may sound like: a close look at the chart Huang projected on stage showed that both the $500 billion and the $1 trillion projections had the same starting point, in 2025. In other words, Huang is really saying that he sees an additional $500 billion in new demand\u2014not $1 trillion\u2014this year. Still, $500 billion is nothing to sneeze at.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Must read: \u2018The Karpathy Loop\u2019: Former OpenAI researcher\u2019s autonomous agents ran 700 experiments in 2 days\u2014and gave a glimpse of where AI is heading by Fortune\u2019s Jeremy Kahn
\nRobot dogs priced at $300,000 apiece are now guarding some of the country\u2019s biggest data centers Fortune\u2019s Jake Angelo reports.<\/p>\n
Chart of the DayHow the war hurt the markets<\/p>\n
The performance of financial assets in U.S. dollars since the war began through Friday March 13th. Oil (and commodities linked to oil) went up but everything else declined. Chart via Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n
STARZ IN THEIR CROSSHAIRSByron Allen just took an aggressive stake in a video streamer<\/p>\n
On March 4, Byron Allen’s family office, Allen Family Capital, bought a 10.7% stake in Starz Entertainment Corp. Allen is now one of Starz’s largest individual shareholders, and his SEC disclosure\u2014spotted by Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut\u2014says he could pursue aggressive activist tactics like board changes, mergers, take-private deals or other corporate transactions. \u201cWith the Paramount Skydance-Warner Bros. impending nuptials in the background, Starz is one of the last premium streamers without a home out there\u2014and Allen just nabbed it,\u201d Gerut tells me.<\/p>\n
Number of the Day40<\/p>\n
The number of basis points by which female investors beat their male counterparts, according to a research note by Joyce Chang and her team at J.P. Morgan. Nonetheless, \u201cwomen currently retire with just 74% of men\u2019s wealth, driven by the gender pay gap and caregiving-related career breaks,\u201d she told clients.<\/p>\n
More From Fortune
\nToday’s Front Pages<\/p>\n
How MBS\u2019s bet on Iran backfired – FT<\/p>\n
Senators tell ByteDance to \u2018immediately shut down\u2019 Seedance AI video app – CNBC<\/p>\n
Trump ramps up press pressure over Iran war coverage – Axios<\/p>\n
How Some Ships Are Sneaking Through the Strait of Hormuz – WSJ<\/p>\n
Blank Street Abandons Tiny Coffee Shops to Take on Starbucks – Bloomberg<\/p>\n
\u2018It\u2019s Just Crazy\u2019: High Car Payments Make Ownership Feel Impossible – NYT<\/p>\n
One More ThingExclusive: How CEOs gamed their own bonuses<\/p>\n
Corporate boards used a range of tactics\u2014more-conservative targets, widened performance curves, and flattened payout ranges\u2014to protect CEO compensation from uncertainties like the chaos of President Trump\u2019s Liberation Day tariffs in 2025, according to exclusive analysis of pay data from 50 public companies by Compensation Advisory Partners. Even among companies with the weakest payouts due to underperformance, CEOs still collected 87% of their target bonuses. And they will likely get more protection this year as CEOs beg their directors to shield their pay from the downsides of the war in Iran, Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut reports.<\/p>\n
#Backchannel #talks #U.S #Iran #offer #Trump #offrampif<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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