<\/p>\n
You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Washington has put South Africa in its sights again as the United States opens something called a Section 301 investigation into whether countries, including this one, are doing enough to block imports made with forced labour.<\/p>\n
A move that could sharpen trade tensions and potentially open the door to more tariffs and other restrictions. The probe, as I understand it, was initiated by US Trade Representative (Jamieson Greer).<\/p>\n
Steven Gruzd is the head of African Governance and Diplomacy programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). So let\u2019s wade into this with a little bit more detail.<\/p>\n
Steven, welcome to you. What exactly is South Africa being accused of?<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: Well, South Africa is among 60 countries that are being investigated by the US Trade Representative for alleged child labour and use of products that have come from child labour into our market, amongst other, what the US calls unfair trade practices.<\/p>\n
To me, it sounds like an opportunity to find reasons not to import goods from South Africa.<\/p>\n
On top of, as you\u2019ve said, quite a strict tariff regime, South Africa is receiving some of the highest tariffs of any country in the world.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump seems to have this notion that all his trade partners are getting the better of him, so (the US) is trying to find reasons to impose more restrictions.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: So not really about forced labour at all. It\u2019s a wider trade and geopolitical pressure tactic.<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: That\u2019s what I see it as. Child labour or underage labour or illegal labour has not really been a big issue in South Africa. So it seems to be a smokescreen or an opportunity for looking at other measures that are considered unfair.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Nonetheless, Steven, it is going ahead. So how serious would an investigation like this be in practical terms for South Africa?<\/p>\n
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STEVEN GRUZD: Well, it depends on what it unearths. I think that they\u2019re going to look hard for what they\u2019re looking for. It\u2019s not going to put us in a great position with the US.<\/p>\n
As we know, the relationship has been fraying. It\u2019s been difficult. We\u2019ve had the expulsion of our ambassador (Ebrahim Rasool). We\u2019ve had the new American ambassador (Leo Brent Bozell) here already d\u00e9marched.<\/p>\n
Read:
SA issues formal protest to US ambassador
New ambassador strikes softer tone on SA than Trump<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve had the US boycotting the G20 that South Africa hosted last year. We\u2019ve had South Africa not being invited to the G20 this year, and a number of other indicators that show that the relationship is not in a good position.<\/p>\n
Listen\/read: Belligerent Trump bars SA from US G20 in 2026<\/p>\n
This would just be another log on the fire in the rather poor and tattered relationship that we have with the most important economy in the world. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s good news.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: So those sectors that are maybe standing around this fire, which of those should be most concerned, do you think?<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: Well, I think it\u2019s the same sectors that are getting benefit from getting into the American market through Agoa, the African Growth and Opportunity Act. At one point they were saying South Africa may be excluded. That may still happen. But that arrangement has been extended until the end of the year.<\/p>\n
Listen\/read: Agoa extended \u2013 and SA is included<\/p>\n
The sectors there are the motor industry, the wine industry and the fresh fruit and agriculture industry, all of which have preferential access into the US market through Agoa, and all of which have been affected by these moves on the trade front.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Is it likely then and maybe just explain this in simple terms, will this then spill over into Agoa and broader market access then for our exports?<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: Well, I\u2019m not a trade expert, but I think it will. I think it will have a chilling effect and make it more difficult to get goods into the US market.<\/p>\n
Maybe that\u2019s a good thing, because South Africa will diversify and look for other markets as it has been. It\u2019s been talking to China for a long time.<\/p>\n
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China has granted a whole lot of goods duty free, quota free into its market, but it\u2019s not so easy to switch markets. I just don\u2019t think it\u2019s good news for South Africa, and it\u2019s going to put those and other industries under a lot of pressure.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Tell me, Steven, is there a pre-emptive strategy then, that Pretoria could adopt, before the April submission deadline?<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: We\u2019ve been told that Pretoria has been trying to secure some kind of trade deal with the US since April last year, and that has not been successful. We know that the US has forged new deals with the European Union, the UK and others.<\/p>\n
I think we\u2019re just not a priority for Washington at all, and I\u2019m very far down the list, so I don\u2019t know exactly what we could do pre-emptively, short of trying to find some kind of deal.<\/p>\n
It also doesn\u2019t help that we haven\u2019t had an ambassador in the United States since Ebrahim Rasool was declared persona non grata and kicked out of the country. I think it was in January or February 2025.<\/p>\n
Listen: Rasool\u2019s boot from the USA: Did the ambassador overstep diplomatic boundaries?<\/p>\n
So it\u2019s been a whole year without having our top diplomat in the United States and that\u2019s a problem.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Do you think, bluntly, we\u2019re wasting our time here with this mollifying tactic of trying to secure some kind of deal, and that the reality is, as long as the Trump administration and whatever follows continues, that door is now firmly shut and locked.<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: I don\u2019t think we should give up.<\/p>\n
I think we have to try whatever we can to mend this relationship, to secure markets for our goods and so on. You can\u2019t give up on the most powerful country.<\/p>\n
But boy, it\u2019s going to be difficult in the next three years, as the rest of the Trump administration plays out. I don\u2019t think we should have any illusions.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: And mending that relationship, Steven, and we\u2019re moving slightly away here from trade, but it would also mean Pretoria maybe dialling down the rhetoric a little bit.<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: Well, that\u2019s what the US definitely would like to see. South Africa has remained defiant on things like the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. It says this is a principle about international law and it won\u2019t back down.<\/p>\n
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That\u2019s one of the things that Ambassador Bozell, the new American ambassador, has wanted South Africa to do.<\/p>\n
So it\u2019s difficult to see how this is going to play out.<\/p>\n
But I do think having ambassadors in each other\u2019s capitals is really important and we\u2019ve suffered from not having that for a year on both sides.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: If South Africa mishandled this, and again, the deadline is very close, is there an immediate realistic economic downside, do you think?<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: I don\u2019t know if immediate, but in the medium term, definitely. If the US is then determined that we have unfair trade practices, it can take a whole number of measures, including stopping imports, that will just really damage the economy.<\/p>\n
There are some who say, oh, we don\u2019t need America and they\u2019ve got a right-wing president in the White House, and we must do our own thing, and we must look to Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).<\/p>\n
Read:<\/p>\n
US intensifies criticism of SA after Brics war games
\nTrump\u2019s attacks push India, Brazil and SA closer together
\nSouth Africa eyes more trade with Asia as Trump\u2019s tariffs bite<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not so easy, especially with the historical relationship we\u2019ve had with the US and the size of the imports that go into the United States from South Africa.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: To that end, this this is more than a warning shot. It\u2019s the start of what is obviously a much tougher US line on South Africa. What might come next, do you think?<\/p>\n
STEVEN GRUZD: Well, we\u2019ve heard in Congress for maybe the last couple of years, I suppose, that there is legislation slowly making its way through, requiring a full review of the US\u2019s relationship with South Africa in all aspects.<\/p>\n
Read: Trump\u2019s tariffs have gutted Agoa\u2019s duty\u2011free promise<\/p>\n
If that goes through and that investigation comes up and says, well, South Africa is not acting in the US interest, again, I think that could tear the relationship even further apart and make any kind of reset just that much more difficult.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Steven Gruzd, thank you very much indeed, head of the African Governance and Diplomacy programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs.<\/p>\n
#Fresh #investigation #threatens #SAs #access #key #markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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