![](\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/GettyImages-2265943579-e1773782528588.jpg?w=2048\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
As the Iran war drags deeper into its third week, one seemingly obvious solution for more energy is crude oil from Venezuela after the Trump administration seized former leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and pressed for the reopening of the nation\u2019s oil sector.<\/p>\n
The glaring problem is more oil from Venezuela\u2014or any other source around the world\u2014represents only metaphorical drops in the global supply bucket compared to the massive losses each day from the Persian Gulf and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a math problem,\u201d said Fernando Ferreira, director of the geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group. \u201cHormuz flows about 20 million barrels [of oil] a day. Venezuela is currently producing about 1 million [barrels daily].\u201d<\/p>\n
The issue is there simply are no alternatives to the de facto closure of the passageway that sees about 20% of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas trek through it each day.<\/p>\n
\u201cVenezuela helps; every little bit helps. But, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn\u2019t change the equation,\u201d Ferreira told Fortune. \u201cThere is no medium-term solution other than reopening the straits. Nothing else is going to solve the crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n
Arguably the best-case scenario for Venezuelan oil production is it grows from producing nearly 1 million barrels of oil a day late last year to churning out about 1.2 million barrels daily by the end of 2026, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m expecting less than 250,000 barrels added over the whole year, if at all. That is of course significant for a country that produces just 1 million, but it\u2019s nothing for the world market. It\u2019s less than 0.3%,\u201d Monaldi said, considering the world consumes about 103 million barrels a day. \u201cIn particular, it\u2019s very insignificant compared to the disrupted market.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the White House is aiming to build a coalition of allies to control the strait and escort tankers. The U.S. is also temporarily lifting sanctions on some Russian oil\u2014but that only impacts the destination and prices, not the volumes of oil. And member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to release a record-high, 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S.<\/p>\n
Pulling that oil from storage will take at least four months however. And while the planned emergency releases are helping keep oil prices from hitting all-time highs, crude oil benchmarks are still hovering near $100 a barrel\u2014up almost 70% from the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n
The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.80 and rising in the U.S.\u2014up nearly 40% since its January low\u2014but that\u2019s nothing compared to the Asian nations suffering from much higher prices and long lines for fuel, closed schools, and shortened work weeks because of their greater reliance on Middle Eastern oil and Qatari natural gas.<\/p>\n
The most successful approach thus far is Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates redirecting as much of their oil flows as they can away from the Strait of Hormuz via the Saudi Arabia East-West Pipeline and the UAE\u2019s Habshan\u2013Fujairah pipeline.<\/p>\n
Still, close to 14 million barrels of oil per day remain blocked, according to energy analysts.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf those pipelines are attacked, then it could be even worse,\u201d Monaldi said.<\/p>\n
An Iranian drone attack hit Fujairah on March 16\u2014though not the pipeline itself\u2014triggering the temporary suspension of oil-loading operations.<\/p>\n
Positive momentum in Venezuela<\/p>\n
Even if Venezuelan supplies won\u2019t help solve the global energy crisis, the country\u2019s oil and gas industry is making notable gains quite quickly, analysts said.<\/p>\n
And the growth of oil and gas in South America overall eventually can help the world reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern supplies, Monaldi said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn the very long term, it does derisk the oil markets if Venezuela produces much more,\u201d he said, citing other key oil-producing countries. \u201cVenezuela and Brazil and Guyana and Argentina are far away from these geopolitical conflicts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Venezuela is still home to the world\u2019s largest proven oil reserves on paper. But the dilapidated industry peaked decades ago with an output of nearly 4 million barrels and needs well more than $100 billion in investments to even approach its past glory. Doing so would take several years to bring to fruition.<\/p>\n
\u201cProduction is moving up, but it\u2019s moving up gradually. There isn\u2019t a secret pool of oil that Venezuela can tap into and immediately unlock hundreds of thousands of barrels a day,\u201d Ferreira said. \u201cThe potential is there, but this is years\u2019 worth of work.\u201d<\/p>\n
Momentum is building with Venezuela passing new laws to open the industry to outside investment. Chevron, which was the only U.S. producer that didn\u2019t abandon the country during periods of asset expropriation, has agreed to expand its largest project in Venezuela\u2019s oil-rich Orinoco Belt.<\/p>\n
Also, Shell plans to develop gassier regions of Venezuela\u2014both onshore and offshore, which would be closer to Trinidad.<\/p>\n
Exxon Mobil plans to send a small team to Venezuela to assess the situation, although CEO Darren Woods drew President Donald Trump\u2019s ire in January when was said Venezuela was currently \u201cuninvestable\u201d until major reforms were enacted.<\/p>\n
The ongoing political transition with acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodriguez is going about as well as it possible could thus far, Ferreira said. Changes should continue and eventually usher in elections.<\/p>\n
\u201cFolks that have been to Caracas say it\u2019s open for business,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
#Venezuela #worlds #largest #proven #oil #reserves #solve #Strait #Hormuz #math #problem<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As the Iran war drags deeper into its third week, one seemingly obvious solution for…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[245],"tags":[3868,604,517,518,1804,504,376,373,708,303,823,3869,1317,2339,503,870,461],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1665"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1665\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}