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Urgently limiting greenhouse gas emissions is essential to avoiding the worst effects of climate change. South Africa is a party to the 2015 Paris Agreement. This required countries to set targets for greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to limit global warming to 1.5\u00b0C-2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. The targets set by most countries, however, are not sufficient and global emissions are still rising. Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C is very likely within the next decade.<\/p>\n
The Paris Agreement only works if each country is doing its fair share. Even though South Africa produces about 1% of the world\u2019s greenhouse gases, the Climate Action Tracker has rated South Africa\u2019s targets as \u201cinsufficient\u201d, projecting that if every country followed the same approach, warming would pass 2\u00b0C and could reach 3\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The tracker states that South Africa should cut its emissions by 40% between 2022 and 2035 to do its fair share of limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C. The current target range represents a 16% to 29% cut.<\/p>\n
Reaching targets<\/p>\n
South Africa\u2019s estimated net 2024 greenhouse gas emissions \u2013 of about 444-million tonnes (Mt) \u2013 fall within the range of the 2025 targets, according to the latest draft national inventory. While 477Mt were emitted, 33Mt were absorbed by the \u201cland sink\u201d (forests, thickets, grasslands, etc.).<\/p>\n
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The country\u2019s emissions peaked in 2008 and have been decreasing unevenly since. This is not because of intentional greening efforts: the Presidential Climate Commission suggests the drop in emissions is likely due to economic stagnation and load shedding.<\/p>\n
Since load shedding eased in 2024, energy sector emissions have increased as Eskom burned more coal. Total emissions fell only because the land is estimated to have absorbed more carbon. That estimate is uncertain. The inventory notes that some of the land changes it records may reflect rainfall rather than real change.<\/p>\n
The energy sector alone emitted 375Mt in 2024, which is more than the whole lower target for 2030 (350Mt). In order to reach the top of the 2030 range, emissions must fall by another 24Mt. To reach the bottom of the range, they must fall by 94Mt.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not guaranteed that this will happen. The government\u2019s electricity plan, the IRP 2025, retires 8GW of coal by 2030, but only if 6GW of new gas power is running by then, which is uncertain. It also considers keeping five big stations open ten years past their 50-year life. Eskom has already moved the closure of five coal stations to 2030 due to delays in getting private power online.<\/p>\n
Low bar<\/p>\n
The country published its target for 2035 last year. The lower end of the 2035 target is 320Mt. Research by UCT, commissioned by the government, found that implementing existing policies, including the Renewable Energy Masterplan, could bring emissions to between 289Mt and 359Mt by 2035.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe targets are so unambitious that we could hit them by doing what industry and government have already promised to do, without lifting a finger further,\u201d said D\u00e9na Jansen, an analyst at Just Share. The upper end of 380Mt, she said, \u201cis what tends to become the real operating target in practice\u201d.<\/p>\n
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\u201cA target that doesn\u2019t ask anything of you isn\u2019t anything more than a formality.\u201d<\/p>\n
Jansen points out that if South Africa cannot prove that it is serious about transitioning to clean energy, the country risks losing out on international finance and may be hit with carbon tax from importing countries.<\/p>\n
Chart produced by The Outlier in partnership with GroundUp<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 GroundUp. This article was first published here.<\/p>\n
#reach #emissions #targets #easy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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