<\/p>\n
An\u00a0AI jobs apocalypse may not be the biggest threat to US workers in the next decade. The larger challenge could be helping millions of people move into new jobs, according to a\u00a0study by consulting firm McKinsey & Co.<\/p>\n
Roughly 11 million American workers, or about 7% of the current workforce, may need to change jobs by 2035 because of artificial intelligence-related displacement, according to the report released Tuesday.<\/p>\n
That means the number of US workers who change occupations each year \u2013 historically around 215 000 \u2013 may triple over the next decade. The transition will be tough for many, with six of seven workers facing substantial retraining and loss of income, according to McKinsey\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n
Read: AI adoption is driving hiring, but mostly for senior roles<\/p>\n
Workers aren\u2019t \u201cinterchangeable units\u201d, the report\u2019s authors note. \u201cJob opportunities can be abundant and yet leave millions of workers without work if those positions require different skills, credentials, locations or pay structures than current jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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The McKinsey study found that full-time employees most likely to have to change jobs are concentrated in three groups, office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics.<\/p>\n
That includes jobs such as customer-service representatives, cashiers and warehouse workers. Many are low-income workers, whom the report projects will be almost\u00a0eight times as likely as higher earners to have to change jobs.<\/p>\n
Like many projections of its kind, the analysis hinges on factors that are difficult to predict, including how quickly companies adopt AI and how that affects demand for workers across industries.<\/p>\n
The research also accounts for broader trends shaping labour demand, including the country\u2019s ageing population. Given that uncertainty, the authors estimate that anywhere from 6 million to 16 million workers may need to switch occupations.<\/p>\n
Read:
AI\u2019s lucrative jobs boom is leaving women behind globally
Recruiters shift focus to specialised AI jobs to stay relevant<\/p>\n
The report outlines several ways federal, state and local governments could help workers make those transitions, including providing more detailed and timely labour-market data and funding retraining programs.<\/p>\n
Earlier labour market transformations such as America\u2019s move away from agriculture unfolded far more gradually. But there is precedent for this pace of change: The rate of projected job changes is similar to what US workers experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Tanguy Catlin, a senior partner at the McKinsey Global Institute and one of the report\u2019s authors.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe did it during Covid for two years,\u201d he said. \u201cYou would need to presume that we can sustain it for about 10 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
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One factor the report didn\u2019t consider,\u00a0Catlin\u00a0said,\u00a0is whether demand for workers could fall faster in some occupations than it rises in others.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cWe don\u2019t know whether it\u2019s going to be painless,\u201d\u00a0he said.<\/p>\n
The report outlines several ways federal, state and local governments could help workers make those transitions, including providing more detailed and timely labour-market data and funding retraining programmes.<\/p>\n
Read: Tech and finance sectors losing 28 000 jobs monthly show AI impact on labour<\/p>\n
\u201cThe education system has been developed over time really to focus mostly on youth,\u201d Catlin\u00a0said. \u201cBut what can be done to continue to upskill the existing workforce, people who need to change occupations? Those are the questions we wanted to tee up for public debate.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
#mayforce #11m #workers #jobs #McKinsey<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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