![](\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/GettyImages-2274028750.jpg?w=2048\")
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The Iran war has pushed fuel prices to record highs, and the head of America\u2019s second-largest oil company says the world has run out of easy ways to absorb the shock.<\/p>\n
\u201cThose are all buffers in the system that have bought us time, but they\u2019ve been drained,\u201d Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC\u2019s Squawk Box Europe on Oct. 7. \u201cAnd so we\u2019re at much lower levels of inventory right now, and it makes the system more vulnerable to disruption.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wirth said the world entered 2026 well supplied. \u201cWe came into this year with high inventories,\u201d he said, pointing to commercial stocks held by companies and strategic reserves held by governments worldwide. Since the war began in late February, those cushions have been steadily depleted: Companies have drawn down commercial inventories, governments have released emergency stocks, and sanctioned barrels have been allowed to reach buyers.<\/p>\n
He called it \u201ca very serious situation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Wirth was blunt that stockpile releases are only a stopgap. They \u201cbuy time,\u201d he said, but the underlying problem is \u201cconstrained flows out of some of the biggest producing areas in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
Diesel relief isn\u2019t coming soon<\/p>\n
Nowhere is the squeeze sharper than diesel, the fuel that moves trucks, trains, and farm equipment. The U.S. average hit a record $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22, according to AAA data cited by CBS News, up from about $3.76 before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in late February. In California, the statewide average has topped $8 a gallon.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t expect that to change quickly. In its October Oil Market Report, released Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said the diesel market will stay tight well into 2027 and hinges on a recovery of fuel supply from the Middle East. Benchmark diesel prices have eased from September\u2019s records above $200 a barrel, but remain nearly double both crude prices and their pre-crisis levels, and the IEA said depleted diesel stocks are unlikely to be rebuilt beyond normal seasonal swings before the second half of 2027.<\/p>\n
The agency expects global oil supply to fall by an average of 5.8 million barrels a day this year, to 100.7 million barrels a day, before rebounding in 2027, and sees the market staying in deficit through year-end. It also forecasts that high prices will cut global oil demand by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, with diesel accounting for about a quarter of the drop.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s scramble for supply<\/p>\n
With the Nov. 3 midterms less than three weeks away, fuel costs have become a political liability for the White House. An AP-NORC poll published Oct. 1 found that Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump\u2019s handling of the Iran war and blame him for higher prices, Fortune reported.<\/p>\n
Trump has tried several levers. In late September, he floated a ban on U.S. diesel exports, telling a Fox News reporter on Sept. 27, \u201cWe\u2019re thinking about it very seriously,\u201d while acknowledging it could push gasoline prices up. Refiners warned the policy would backfire, arguing it could force plants to cut output and ultimately tighten domestic supply. Wirth called the idea \u201cunwise,\u201d telling CNBC that \u201cexport bans, be they in the U.S. or in other countries, actually take supply off the global market and they run the risk of making the situation worse.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump shelved the idea on Oct. 2, after the Group of Seven, following a pressure campaign from his administration aimed at Europe, agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, with a front-loaded diesel release in the first 20 days. \u201cWe\u2019re not going to be doing the export ban,\u201d Trump told reporters that day.<\/p>\n
Three days later, he signed an executive order letting truckers and farmers use red-dyed diesel\u2014normally reserved for off-road equipment and exempt from highway fuel taxes\u2014on public roads. The order defers, rather than eliminates, the 24.4-cent-per-gallon federal excise tax through Dec. 31, without interest or penalties, and directs the Treasury to explore ways to cancel the bill entirely. Analysts were skeptical: The waiver \u201cdoesn\u2019t add supply globally,\u201d GasBuddy\u2019s Patrick De Haan told Fortune.<\/p>\n
Few levers left<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s latest move came Oct. 9, when he announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to global markets in stages. The Treasury Department simultaneously issued a general license waiving sanctions on Russian diesel through April 7, 2027.<\/p>\n
The deal drew bipartisan backlash in Congress and a sharp rebuke from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who wrote on X that \u201callowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.\u201d<\/p>\n
It may not deliver much relief, either. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have gutted the country\u2019s fuel output: Russian diesel and gasoil exports fell to about 144,000 barrels a day in September, a decade low, and some analysts doubt Moscow can deliver the volumes Trump announced. The IEA said in its latest report that easing Russian export restrictions is unlikely to materially change the global diesel balance, because the bottleneck is a lack of working refinery capacity.<\/p>\n
That brings it back to Wirth\u2019s warning. Stockpile releases, sanctions waivers, and tax breaks can buy time, but they can\u2019t replace the oil and fuel that isn\u2019t flowing out of the Middle East. And with the buffers already spent, there\u2019s little left to cushion the next disruption.<\/p>\n
#Chevron #CEO #warns #oil #buffers #cushioned #Iran #war #shock #drained<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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