<\/p>\n
You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: South Africa could be heading into one of its toughest agricultural summers in years. Despite encouraging early rains and healthy dam levels, the Agriculture Minister, Willie Aucamp, is warning that a powerful El Ni\u00f1o could bring extreme heat, drought and serious pressure on food production.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s calling for early water restrictions and urging farmers to rethink planting decisions and livestock numbers.<\/p>\n
Read:<\/p>\n
Will El Ni\u00f1o drought hit food prices in South Africa?
\nA stock trader\u2019s guide to navigating a rare \u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019<\/p>\n
But are we facing a genuine agricultural emergency and is government sufficiently prepared if that is the case? Minister Aucamp, a very warm welcome to you, and just how bad could this get? Are we looking at a genuine threat, potentially, to South Africa\u2019s food security?<\/p>\n
WILLIE AUCAMP: Jeremy, the problem with this is we don\u2019t know what the effects are going to be because it is something that you\u2019ve got to predict. You don\u2019t have actual science in your hands to know exactly what the total impact of this would be.<\/p>\n
But precisely, therefore, we must prepare for the worst and hope for a better outcome.<\/p>\n
This El Ni\u00f1o effect will definitely have a huge amount of reduced rainfall and obviously high temperatures that will have a huge effect on especially crop farmers, but also on farmers that farm with animals that need to graze, it will have an effect on grazing.<\/p>\n
If we are not going to have proper summer rains, those grazing farms will definitely battle come the winter of next year and towards the end of winter, because most of the parts where we farm with cattle, sheep and goats in this country are reliant on summer rainfall.<\/p>\n
So if we don\u2019t get summer rainfall, we know we won\u2019t get rainfall in the winter as well, so it will definitely have a huge impact.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: You talk about how difficult it is to predict and I understand that. But, Minister, dams right now are relatively full, soil moisture is good, are you not potentially overstating the danger here?<\/p>\n
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WILLIE AUCAMP: The dam levels will have an effect on people who are [growing] crops and they are irrigating that. But the largest part of crops in this country are [on] dry lands, they are reliant on rain after they\u2019ve been planted.<\/p>\n
So is the grazing that we\u2019ve got for our animals, you do not irrigate grazed farmland, so it will definitely have an effect. The people that will do irrigation will definitely not be affected that much.<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:<\/p>\n
Africa faces a R330bn El Ni\u00f1o shock
\nAfrica faces El Ni\u00f1o with less room to weather shock, IIF says<\/p>\n
Although the higher temperatures might have an effect on plants that have just been planted.<\/p>\n
If you if you really get a high temperature day, it will be able to, in extreme circumstances, burn the plants or have an effect on the [temperature] of the plants that have been planted. So the big problem is with areas that don\u2019t irrigate.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: You\u2019re advising farmers, minister, to plant less productive land more selectively. I understand what you\u2019re saying, but doesn\u2019t that risk reducing food production before the drought even arrives?<\/p>\n
WILLIE AUCAMP: Well, it\u2019s not about the risk of reducing it. If people are going to plant the marginal fields that they\u2019ve got, and they know in the past that specific piece of land did not really yield a proper result.<\/p>\n
If planting that now is going to be worse than previous years, that is something that farmers will have to contemplate in making their decisions. We\u2019re not trying to tell farmers what to do on the land. They know by far the best about what they\u2019ve got to do on their land.<\/p>\n
The advice that we give is if you are facing this drought, maybe look into not planting those marginal areas.<\/p>\n
When it comes to livestock, we are urging farmers to protect their land, protect their grazing, maybe get rid of the production animals that are not in production anymore.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019ve got older animals or a cow or an ewe that did not give you a calf or a lamb in the previous season, that might be an animal that is going out of production, and it will have an effect on the other animals that you keep.<\/p>\n
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We\u2019ve got to make sure that we don\u2019t overgraze the field and make sure that we do rotational grazing with animals.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: And practically, Minister, that does make sense in reducing herds. But isn\u2019t that also asking farmers to sacrifice their livelihoods simply based on a forecast?<\/p>\n
WILLIE AUCAMP: Well, it\u2019s not asking them to sacrifice their livelihoods. It\u2019s asking them to protect their livelihoods.<\/p>\n
Because if people are not going to be proactive on this, it will have an effect on them. I do not believe that all the scientists in the world who predict this, all collectively, will be wrong.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re going to experience something, although we don\u2019t know exactly what, and that is why we\u2019ve got to be prepared for all and everything that\u2019s going to come our way.<\/p>\n
If you do not take any proactive actions, it might come back to bite you, and that is what we are trying to prevent.<\/p>\n
If you look at rainfall patterns, the biggest part of the country, as I said earlier on, is in a summer rainfall.<\/p>\n
Now, we know that dams are full, but if we\u2019re not going to get rain over the December, January, February period, where there are crops that are reliant on it and grazing that needs it to get through the winter, it will become a very desperately long winter season that we\u2019re going to go through for grazing.<\/p>\n
Obviously, if you don\u2019t get water on what you\u2019ve planted, whether it\u2019s maize or whatever it is, you\u2019re going to have a poor result on your harvest, and we need to be prepared for that.<\/p>\n
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JEREMY MAGGS: Minister, if the drought is as severe as you fear, the big concern is how much food prices rise. Is there anything that government realistically can do to protect consumers?<\/p>\n
WILLIE AUCAMP: Well, firstly, Jeremy, we must remember that we are a net exporter of agricultural products, so we don\u2019t have a food shortage in the country.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m definitely sure that we will not even due to this El Ni\u00f1o have a food shortage because we\u2019ve got surpluses available to us, but we\u2019ve got to look at the long term.<\/p>\n
This might have an effect in the long term on food availability if we are not going to manage this properly.<\/p>\n
I believe that our farmers are going to manage this properly. You must remember, Jeremy, that our farmers are not only resilient, they are very proactive. Our farmers have also been through an El Ni\u00f1o before, this is not something new to them. They are prepared for this.<\/p>\n
Then we must look at the effect that technology has had over the years. Farmers are not planting the same types of seeds that they planted 10 or 15 years ago. You get more drought resilient seeds. You get crops that are more drought resilient.<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:<\/p>\n
Local food producers pricing in El Ni\u00f1o worries
\nSuper El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 how it could affect South Africa\u2019s maize\u00a0prices<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take, for example, sorghum. If they\u2019re going to plant sorghum, it\u2019s a much more drought resilient plant that they can do. So there are a lot of things that our farmers know exactly how to do.<\/p>\n
They are experts in dealing with this. I think we will be less affected than other countries that are not used to farming in drought conditions. Our farmers are definitely more used to doing that.<\/p>\n
JEREMY MAGGS: Wille Aucamp, thank you very much indeed, you\u2019re South Africa\u2019s Minister of Agriculture. I appreciate your time.<\/p>\n
#Ni\u00f1o #threat #farmers #urged #prepare #punishing #summer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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