<\/p>\n
Ken Langone, the Home Depot co-founder, bought shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) in 1977. At 91, he has never sold a single share, and he said he sees the stock doubling in three years, as I reported. This has stuck with me because of the patience behind it, and what he said about LLY.<\/p>\n
I know plenty of stocks where I see investors rush to buy or sell after a single earnings report, so seeing someone hold for nearly five decades and still expect more upside is remarkable.<\/p>\n
He has been patient, and it has actually paid off over the years, and still is. Lilly is up 59.93% over the past 1 year, 121% over the last 3 years, and 451.38% over the past 5 years, according to Yahoo Finance. <\/p>\n
The business backs it up. Second-quarter revenue was $23 billion, up 48%, driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound volume, after full-year 2025 revenue of $65.2 billion, up 45%, Lilly reported. <\/p>\n
CEO David Ricks said Lilly is building for the future with retatrutide, new manufacturing capacity and acquired assets, and that its future “has never been brighter.” As I reported Sept. 22, he also said one-third of new oral GLP-1 patients are choosing Foundayo, Lilly’s once-daily pill.<\/p>\n
However, when expectations run this high, a beat alone may not be enough.<\/p>\n
Also Read: Eli Lilly CEO reveals astonishing shift in GLP-1 pill market<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly stock rises into a beat everyone expects<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs expects another beat-and-raise when Lilly reports Oct. 29. The firm says magnitude is the focus. The Buy-rated note shared with me at TheStreet lifts LLY’s 12-month price target to $1,413 from $1,371.<\/p>\n
Lilly’s own full-year revenue guidance is $85 billion to $87 billion, Q2 results noted. Consensus is already about $88.6 billion, and Goldman is at $89.8 billion, according to the note. Goldman’s investor conversations suggest the top end of a raise would need to clear consensus to satisfy bulls.<\/p>\n
More Healthcare Stocks:<\/p>\n
BofA sees Eli Lilly’s overseas obesity sales topping the U.S.<\/p>\n
Eli Lilly’s Foundayo pill wins first European approval<\/p>\n
Novo Nordisk CEO resets expectations for Wegovy’s growth<\/p>\n
Shares are up 18% this year versus 12.4% for both the S&P 500 and Goldman’s drug-industry benchmark, after two straight beat-and-raise quarters. Goldman expects third-quarter revenue of $23.1 billion, about 2.8% above consensus.<\/p>\n
Do not be fooled by the earnings line. Goldman expects adjusted EPS of $5.63 against $7.03 consensus, because a $4.2 billion pretax charge for acquired research cuts earnings by $4.57 a share and is not fully in consensus. A headline miss could mask a strong quarter.<\/p>\n
What’s driving Lilly’s numbers<\/p>\n
Zepbound is the engine. Goldman estimates $5.3 billion (US $5.2bn), 5% above consensus, with prescriptions up 78% from a year ago to about 9.8 million. The Medicare program began July 1 and has reached 1.1 million patients, accounting for approximately 10% of Zepbound prescriptions.<\/p>\n
Patients are paying less per prescription, not more. Medicare volume comes at $245 a month, while cash-pay prices run $299 to $449. Revenue per prescription should slip to about $526 from $565, but Goldman says volume should more than offset it. Commercial prescriptions grew 24%, while vials fell 59% as patients moved to the KwikPen.<\/p>\n
When I look at Zepbound‘s pricing, I can’t help thinking about the people who actually need the treatment. A pill might sound more convenient than a weekly injection, but I imagine affordability matters just as much. After all, convenience means little if patients can’t afford to stay on treatment.<\/p>\n
Related: Eli Lilly’s Foundayo delivers diabetes surprise in late-stage study<\/p>\n
Outside the U.S., Mounjaro may be the bigger surprise. Goldman estimates $5.6 billion, 7% above consensus, which assumes just 1%-2% sequential growth. The note says IQVIA prescription data shows mid-teens growth in July and August. U.S. Mounjaro prescriptions reached 11.1 million, up 37%.<\/p>\n
Foundayo is the one to watch. U.S. prescriptions jumped to about 535,000 from 169,000 last quarter, after a June commercial access unlock, the Medicare program, and a Sept. 1 price cut to $149, $149, and $199 for its three doses. <\/p>\n
Goldman puts Foundayo’s share of new prescriptions at about 30% against Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill. It estimates $228 million in revenue, slightly below the $246 million consensus, with U.S. lower and international higher at $85 million versus $63 million, helped by launches in Saudi Arabia, the UK and Mexico.<\/p>\n
One-third of new oral GLP-1 patients are choosing Foundayo, Lilly’s once-daily pill.<\/p>\n
Peter Dazeley \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n
Goldman sees $1,413 if the raise is big enough<\/p>\n
Next comes the Dec. 7 investor event. Two Phase 3 readouts are due next year: EMBER-4 in breast cancer and TRAILBLAZER-3 in preclinical Alzheimer’s. Lilly says 2027 guidance will come on its January call. Management has also highlighted larger acquisitions, including Centessa’s $7.8 billion acquisition deal.<\/p>\n
Goldman’s target uses 28x forward earnings, based on quarters five through eight. It now models EPS of $32.77, $46.08 and $51.68 for 2026 through 2028.<\/p>\n
For investors, expectations are high, but strong demand provides a solid foundation. If Lilly raises guidance toward Goldman’s $89.8 billion and gives a clear read on 2027, Goldman’s view is that the beat may be enough. If not, the stock rewarded for beating may start asking for more.<\/p>\n
More Stocks NewsPost-it Notes maker 3M eyes AI gold rush in major Amazon dealIBM’s ‘true ROI’ comment hits shares, exposing ETF risksLockheed is spending its own money before Washington signs offApple and Alphabet are sending Wall Street different signals#Goldman #Sachs #resets #Eli #Lilly #12month #stock #price #target #earnings<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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