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A strong El Ni\u00f1o is already worsening droughts and floods that are pushing up food prices and fueling wildfires. The event is now expected to make 2026 the hottest year on record, overtaking 2024, according to a monthly analysis released Thursday by the research nonprofit Berkeley Earth.<\/p>\n
Another scientific body, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasts that 2026 is still\u00a0unlikely\u00a0to supplant the 2024 heat record but will come a close second.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 a natural feature of global weather marked by occasional heating of the eastern tropical Pacific \u2014 temporarily exacerbates human-caused global warming by pushing more ocean heat and moisture into the atmosphere for months. The current pattern\u00a0is similar to previous, historically strong El Ni\u00f1os\u00a0in 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016, which brought dryness to Indonesia and the Philippines and parts of the Americas, and wet conditions to the US South and West. Only now, it\u2019s hotter.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s some evidence that the Pacific hasn\u2019t produced such conditions in a millennium, said Zeke Hausfather, research scientist at Berkeley Earth, citing a topic that climate researchers have\u00a0recently debated.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt may well be possible that this could be the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event in a thousand years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Berkeley Earth is one of several scientific organizations that maintain global temperature datasets, all of which tend to report findings that fall within a tenth of a degree of each other. The European Union\u2019s\u00a0Copernicus Climate Change Service, with data through September, shows 2026\u00a0as the\u00a0second hottest\u00a0year to date.<\/p>\n
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Berkeley Earth in January assigned a 12% probability that 2026 would surpass 2024 as the hottest year, and the chances\u00a0had dropped by May. But the strength of the El Ni\u00f1o took many by surprise as it developed. The onset\u00a0in June quickly flipped the\u00a0odds, which are now 96%, and the El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0may not peak until December.<\/p>\n
Because atmospheric temperatures lag El Ni\u00f1o, scientists are confident 2027 will be even hotter than this year.<\/p>\n
Last month was the second warmest September globally, at 1.65C\u00a0above the pre-industrial norm. That\u2019s just a negligible 0.06C\u00a0behind 2023, when the global average temperature was so abnormally high that Hausfather memorably dubbed it \u201cabsolutely gobsmackingly bananas.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is still quite hot, even if it\u2019s not quite that bananas,\u201d said Robert Rohde, the group\u2019s chief scientist.<\/p>\n
September 2026 also registered the highest departure from the norm for any month other than September 2023 and August 2026. Fifty-three countries set national heat records. Southwestern Europe, including Spain, Portugal and Italy, were particularly hard hit by aberrant late summer temperatures. Singapore, United Arab Emirates and Burkina Faso were among eight countries that broke national records by more than 0.5C.<\/p>\n
The El Ni\u00f1o itself, which is measured as the sea-surface temperature in a particular eastern tropical Pacific region, surpassed monthly marks reached previously only in 2015 and 1877.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
#Odds #becomingthe #hottest #year #surge #higher #Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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