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Oil declined to $109 per barrel after Israel\u2019s Benjamin Netanyahu said his forces would no longer target Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure. Netanyahu also said Iran\u2019s ability to enrich uranium had been destroyed\u2014a key war goal. \u201cThis war [is] ending a lot faster than people think,\u201d he said. S&P 500 futures were down 0.71% this morning prior to the open in New York. The index fell 0.27% yesterday. Markets in Europe and Asia are largely down this morning, again, with the exception of India\u2019s Nifty 50 (up 0.49%) and South Korea\u2019s KOSPI (up 0.31%).<\/p>\n
Oil<\/p>\n
TradingEconomics.com<\/p>\n
ONE BIG THINGSupermicro founder arrested in chip-smuggling probe<\/p>\n
Federal agents on Thursday arrested Yih-Shyan \u201cWally\u201d Liaw, a prominent Silicon Valley executive deep in the AI ecosystem who co-founded Supermicro in 1993 and is a close confidante of CEO and chairman Charles Liang. The stock tumbled roughly 12% in after-hours trading following the news, Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut reports. According to a stunning release from the Department of Justice, an indictment was unsealed in Manhattan federal court on Thursday charging Liaw, 71, and two others with allegedly working in secret to divert billions in Supermicro AI servers to China in violation of U.S. export control laws. The two alleged co-conspirators charged alongside Liaw include Supermicro\u2019s Taiwan general manager Ruei-Tsang \u201cSteven\u201d Chang, who remains a fugitive, and a third-party fixer named Ting-Wei \u201cWilly\u201d Sun, who was also taken into custody on Thursday.<\/p>\n
IRANThe likely next phase is a ground war<\/p>\n
We\u2019re starting to get a clearer picture of the next phase of the war: An assault on Iran\u2019s assets around the Strait of Hormuz. Some U.S. lawmakers like Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., are fearful that will require putting troops inside Iran. \u201cSome of the objectives that he continues to espouse simply cannot be achieved without a physical presence there \u2014 securing the uranium cannot be done without a physical presence,\u201d he told the Associated Press.<\/p>\n
President Trump denied he would engage in a ground war in Iran, but also left open the door to that same scenario: \u201cI\u2019m not putting troops anywhere,\u201d Trump told The New York Times. \u201cIf I were, I certainly wouldn\u2019t tell you.\u201d<\/p>\n
The reality is that there are 2,200 U.S. Marines aboard the amphibious assault ship U.S.S. Tripoli on their way to the region and they will receive backup from A-10 Warthog jets and Apache attack helicopters. Those assets can be used to provide close air support for ground troops, Fortune\u2019s Jason Ma\u2014an ex-Marine\u2014tells me.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The White House confirmed to Reuters that it had discussed using ground forces but that no decisions have been made.<\/p>\n
There is, in fact, a safe route through Hormuz<\/p>\n
The strait isn\u2019t blocked\u2014it is controlled by Iran, which selectively allows friendly ships through the seaway that normally supplies one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil. Eight ships this week have successfully navigated the 24-mile gap between Iran and Oman, according to the Financial Times. They have pursued an unusual route, the paper says, by heading around the north side of Larak Island, hugging the coast of Iran, before moving south again. It looks like this:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The cost of safe passage is $2 million per operator, Lloyds of London reported. Any \u201cenemy\u201d ships face a sea potentially full of mines, drone strikes, or attacks from fast-moving speed boats. Using U.S.-allied planes and helicopters to clear the strait will take weeks, the Wall Street Journal says.<\/p>\n
The logistics of using military escorts to safeguard ships in the strait are formidable: Two destroyers are needed for every two to four tankers, the Financial Times says.<\/p>\n
\u2018Demand destruction\u2019: The high price of oil is changing everything<\/p>\n
It\u2019s day 21 of the war against Iran. In the last 24 hours, Israel struck sites in Syria and Lebanon, and Iran targeted Kuwait\u2019s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, and places in Dubai and Bahrain. 4,200 people have been killed so far, according to Bloomberg.<\/p>\n
With no sign of the conflict ending soon, the cost of long-term $100-per-barrel oil is forcing companies and governments to rethink everything. The worst-case scenario is outright \u201cdemand destruction,\u201d according to a research note by energy research company Wood Mackenzie, seen by Fortune. While the global economy can work around high oil prices by buying less, operating more efficiently, or deploying alternatives, a \u201cdemand destruction\u201d scenario implies a complete cessation of certain types of activity because the price of oil rules it out. Some examples:<\/p>\n
CHART OF THE DAYThe French really are thinner than the rest of us<\/p>\n
In the U.S., 12% of adults use GLP-1 weight loss drugs. The rate is just 2% in the E.U. and U.K., according to ING. The market for these drugs could reach $100 billion in 2027, according to ING\u2019s Thijs Geijer and Diederik Stadig.<\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY$200 billion<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the budget the Pentagon requested to continue fighting the Iran war. It might fund the U.S. military for just 140 more days, according to Fortune\u2019s Jake Angelo. The war is costing roughly $11.3 billion per week, per Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere.<\/p>\n
MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n
Lamborghini CEO says \u2018disappointing\u2019 EV charging infrastructure contributed to no demand for the luxury automaker\u2019s all-electric line, by Sasha Rogelberg<\/p>\n
Meet Mark Zuckerberg\u2019s college roommate. He\u2019s an Olympian-turned-VC exec who now invests in your favorite celebrity businesses, by Jacqueline Munis<\/p>\n
Jack Schlossberg says his grandfather JFK would be \u2018alarmed\u2019 by how far America has fallen on the world stage, by Rachel Ventresca<\/p>\n
The graduate who racked up the biggest student loan in U.K. history owes more than $420,000\u2014pricier than the average British home, by Orianna Rosa Royle<\/p>\n
How an MBA internship led Mitsubishi to e-commerce platform Yami\u2014and into the U.S. snacks market, by Nicholas Gordon<\/p>\n
Craigslist founder says his inspiration for donating $450 million started in Sunday school: \u2018I should treat people like I want to be treated\u2019, by Sydney Lake<\/p>\n
China is becoming a \u2018factory to the factories,\u2019 powering global manufacturing in places like Southeast Asia even as U.S. trade declines, by Angelica Ang<\/p>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n
U.S. says Cuba is prohibited from taking Russian oil as two tankers head to island – CNBC<\/p>\n
Denmark was ready to blow up Greenland runways if US invaded – FT<\/p>\n
Will Saturday Night Live work in the UK? – FT<\/p>\n
Scoop: Anthropic meets with House Homeland Security behind closed doors – Axios<\/p>\n
The Long Farewell to Mark Zuckerberg\u2019s Metaverse – NYT<\/p>\n
ONE MORE THINGCountry club memberships alive and well in the C-suite<\/p>\n
Perk watch: A few large-cap companies still pay CEOs and other top execs to network and schmooze at country clubs, Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut says. J.B. Hunt Transport Services covers country club and airline\/rental car club memberships and dues. Payments at the company range from $3,285 at the low end to $17,119 for the executive chairman. Same story at Valero Energy, which paid $16,087 for chief operating officer Gary Simmons in 2025. SLB, U.S. Bancorp, Fifth Third Bancorp, and Coca-Cola also disclosed covering club memberships for execs.<\/p>\n
#U.S #gears #potential #ground #war #Iran #oil #threatens #demand #destruction<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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