<\/p>\n
As the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its third week, pressure is growing on the person in the best position to end it: Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
But the US president\u2019s ever-shifting explanations for why he went to war leave friends and adversaries at a loss to forecast when he\u2019ll be ready to stop. And even if he does, Iran has shown little willingness to go along. Trump has gone from declaring the war over soon to calling on European and Gulf allies to help. They\u2019re reluctant, and the likes of Russia are benefiting.<\/p>\n
The state of play was exemplified by a recent call with Group of Seven leaders where Trump was repeatedly pressed by European counterparts about his endgame, according to people familiar with the exchange. He said he couldn\u2019t discuss the war\u2019s objectives on the call, but told the leaders he had several in mind and wanted the conflict to end soon.<\/p>\n
The past 48 hours have only deepened the confusion among once-stalwart allies.<\/p>\n
Conversations with several officials since Trump told Fox News that the war would end when he felt it \u201cin my bones\u201d paint a picture of bewilderment and shock. No one seems ready to rally to his call to deploy scant resources to help reopen the virtually shut Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of global \u200boil and a large share of liquefied natural gas.<\/p>\n
Read:
Iran vows revenge for Larijani as Trump says war may end soon
Trump seeks de-escalation after Iran, Israel strike gas hubs<\/p>\n
A White House official said the US\u2019s objectives are to destroy Iran\u2019s missile capability and navy, in addition to ensuring that the country can never obtain a nuclear weapon. The US is also seeking to make sure that the Iranian regime can no longer fund proxy groups in other countries. The coalition-based operation will continue until Trump determines those objectives have been met, the official said.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, backchannels to Iran are proliferating as countries from India to Turkey seek safe passage for ships through Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Even Japan, which rarely wants to appear out of lockstep with the US, said through a senior official that efforts to escort ships face \u201chigh hurdles.\u201d That amounts to a polite \u201cno\u201d that reverberates across countries the US failed to consult on the war that it launched 28 February and is now set to last several weeks.<\/p>\n
Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that he may delay a planned summit with China\u2019s Xi Jinping if it doesn\u2019t help the US open up Hormuz and that European allies need to step up in particular.\u201cIf there\u2019s no response or if it\u2019s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO,\u201d he told the paper.<\/p>\n
He subsequently told reporters on Air Force One that it would be interesting \u201cto see what country wouldn\u2019t help with a very small endeavor\u201d to get oil tankers flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Trump also took direct aim at the UK prime minister, saying he told Keir Starmer that the US \u201cwill remember\u201d if it gets support for the war or not.<\/p>\n
Trump told reporters that the US is in talks with \u201cabout seven countries\u201d about forming a coalition to secure the strait and escort ships through the corridor.<\/p>\n
Tehran\u2019s forces fire missiles and drones daily at targets across the Mideast despite punishing US and Israeli attacks \u2013 and Trump\u2019s claims of victory. Iran\u2019s stranglehold on shipping in the strait has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel, shaking economies worldwide and threatening Trump\u2019s political prospects at home.<\/p>\n
Even one of Trump\u2019s own advisors went public Friday, calling on him to declare victory and end the fighting.<\/p>\n
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The latest escalation in US military activity may represent the peak of the campaign \u2013 an intense surge designed to degrade remaining Iranian capabilities, according to European officials speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss their governments\u2019 views.<\/p>\n
While they discount as exaggerated Trump\u2019s claims that the strikes have destroyed Iran\u2019s military capabilities, the European officials see that rhetoric as potentially laying the groundwork for Washington to declare the operation complete.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are strong motivators on all sides to conclude the military phase of the mission expeditiously,\u201d said Victoria Coates, a former Trump deputy national security advisor now at the Heritage Foundation. It is Trump who has \u201cdominant leverage to set the terms of any negotiations\u201d, she added.<\/p>\n
Israeli authorities work at the site of a blaze caused by fragments from an Iranian projectile in Tel Aviv on 15 March.<\/p>\n
A senior Arabian Gulf official warned that it would ultimately only be the sustained rise in oil prices that would force Trump to stop fighting and claim victory, leaving regional allies to deal with the residual threat from a wounded and angry Iran.<\/p>\n
For the moment, Trump is vowing to continue the campaign, claiming he\u2019s not ready for a deal \u2013 though Iran is. Officials in Tehran remain convinced they can outlast the mercurial US leader, but the damage is mounting.<\/p>\n
Trump pivoted sharply over the weekend to calling for other countries to join the fray to reopen the strait \u2013 a possibility seen in those capitals as ranging from questionable to fanciful.<\/p>\n
Read:
Oil and gas jump as Iran widens energy threat
Trump gets chilly response from allies over demand on Hormuz<\/p>\n
From his Florida golf course, Trump sent a string of mixed messages on social media, calling for support in a war he\u2019s said repeatedly he\u2019s won, and for help in a strait his administration has insisted remains open. He claimed Saturday that Iran wanted a deal, which Iran dismissed.<\/p>\n
But Trump\u2019s attempt to wave away concerns with declarations of swift military victory and economic recovery has been stretched thin, with at least 13 Americans killed so far and Trump forced to scramble to ease oil price spikes that further imperil Republicans\u2019 fortunes in a midterm election year.<\/p>\n
So far, administration efforts to ease the oil-market impact haven\u2019t led to a lasting drop in prices.<\/p>\n
Over the weekend, the White House reiterated that the campaign was planned to last four to six weeks but is ahead of schedule. \u201cWe expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over,\u201d National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told CBS\u2019s Face the Nation.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s own political coalition is showing signs of strain. David Sacks, Trump\u2019s AI czar, said on a podcast published Friday that he agreed \u201cwe should try to find the off-ramp\u201d, saying Iran\u2019s military has been degraded.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a good time to declare victory and get out, and that is clearly what the markets would like to see,\u201d he said, warning the conflict could spiral further.<\/p>\n
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And Vice President JD Vance, an avowed skeptic of foreign incursions, has neither embraced the endeavor fully nor criticised it publicly.<\/p>\n
Troops on the ground<\/p>\n
Still, Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump ally and proxy, praised the president\u2019s decision to bomb parts of Kharg Island, ending a social media post Saturday with the words of the motto of the US Marine Corps \u2013 a nod to the possibility that the US may soon deploy troops on the ground. The US is sending a Marine Expeditionary Force to the region, officials said Friday.<\/p>\n
The US struck military targets on the island, but left intact its oil facilities, which carry the bulk of Iran\u2019s exports.<\/p>\n
The International Energy Agency has warned the war may already represent the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.<\/p>\n
US gasoline prices have already risen sharply \u2013 about 65 cents a gallon since the war began. Public support for the war also appears limited, with recent polls showing Americans divided or leaning against the conflict.<\/p>\n
Read\/Listen:
Trump touts oil supply moves, vows to finish the job in Iran
Oil prices surge as Iran conflict escalates: What it means for SA
Oil and gas prices jump as strikes on gulf facilities escalate<\/p>\n
\u201cHe was hoping this would be a very quick war,\u201d Vali Nasr, an Iran specialist and former Obama administration official who is now a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Bloomberg\u2019s Mishal Husain.<\/p>\n
\u201cNow this war has gone out of his control. It\u2019s longer, messier and is exacting a cost.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some Gulf officials say they have little visibility into Washington\u2019s plans and privately express frustration that the war was launched without meaningful consultation.<\/p>\n
They say the conflict has underscored how little influence Gulf governments currently have over decisions driving the war, despite their efforts to court the Trump administration with pledges of investment.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Gulf states want normalcy: peace and calm to refocus on their national transformation plans,\u201d said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor at Kuwait University and an associate fellow at Chatham House.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat requires a major reset to their security arrangements with Western partners and it also requires dialog with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
The war may prove difficult to end for a simple reason: Washington and Tehran are measuring victory by different standards.<\/p>\n
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Read:
Iran escalates attacks on Dubai and shipping, sending oil higher
Emirates flying near-empty jets to Dubai as locals depart<\/p>\n
For all the US success in striking Iranian military targets, Tehran still has ways to hit back. Even with much of its conventional power damaged, Iran can impose costs through proxy attacks, harassment of shipping and disruption to regional energy flows.<\/p>\n
Israeli authorities work at the site of a blaze caused by fragments from an Iranian projectile in Tel Aviv on 15 March.<\/p>\n
Iran does not need to defeat the US militarily to claim success: Surviving the war may be enough.<\/p>\n
\u201cTheir calculation is that this is about who has a higher threshold of pain,\u201d said Nasr, the Iran specialist.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey think the United States and Israel can dash a lot faster, but they\u2019re not really long-distance runners.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iranian officials have also made clear they are not seeking a quick ceasefire. Senior leaders have framed the conflict as a moment to restore deterrence against the US and Israel and ensure Iran cannot be attacked again.<\/p>\n
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said last week the country\u2019s goal was to continue an \u201ceffective defense that makes the enemy regret\u201d its actions. \u201cWe will extract reparations,\u201d he said in a written statement.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey may well think they\u2019ve crossed a Rubicon in terms of their ability to inflate the world oil price with relatively simple means,\u201d said Simon Gass, a former UK ambassador to Iran.<\/p>\n
Still, countries including Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are exploring channels to reduce tensions and stabilise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while European governments are trying to keep back channels open with Iranian intermediaries, officials said.<\/p>\n
So far, the efforts remain tentative. European officials say Iran has focused its early messages on two demands: compensation for wartime damage and guarantees against future attacks. Both are likely to be non-starters with the White House.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the battlefield could still widen. Israel has expanded operations in Lebanon, while Iraqi militias have signaled a new phase of attacks on US and other foreign targets \u2013 leaving any diplomatic opening fragile.<\/p>\n
An end to the fighting may also come without negotiations, if Trump decides he\u2019s achieved his goals \u2013 or had enough pain.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe president has destroyed most of Iran\u2019s military and naval power and set back its nuclear programme for years,\u201d said Elliott Abrams, who served as the Trump administration\u2019s special representative for Iran. \u201cHe could stop any time he decides to do so and claim a victory.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
#Trump #leaves #allies #foes #guessing #endgame #Iran<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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