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The U.S. and Israel are locked into a longer-than-expected war that may extend through April before Iran\u2019s military is sufficiently neutered to begin shifting toward a \u201cdefensive\u201d posture and reopening oil and gas flows to a world thirsting for cheaper energy, military and energy analysts said.<\/p>\n
With or without a ceasefire agreement and likely short of regime change, the main military objective is to stay the course until Iran is exhausted of much of its remaining missile, drone, and fast-boat inventories, meaning it can no longer effectively block tankers from the critical Strait of Hormuz choke point, they said.<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump hinted at it on Friday, when he posted on social media that he is considering \u201cwinding down\u201d military operations in the Mideast, saying the U.S. is near its objectives of degrading Iran\u2019s missile capability, defense industrial base, armed forces, and nuclear program.<\/p>\n
The war has caused oil prices to surge about 75% since the beginning of the year, threatening inflationary spikes worldwide and regional energy shortages. The campaign has already cost the U.S. many billions of dollars, and the Pentagon has request $200 billion more. Much of the Iranian leadership is killed and many of its military supply chains are decimated. But that hasn\u2019t stopped Israel from escalating matters by targeting Iran\u2019s domestic power supplies through its South Pars gas field\u2014an action Trump criticized, asking Israel to stop hitting oil and gas production\u2014or Iran responding by attacking the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors, most notably Qatar\u2019s liquefied natural gas facilities.<\/p>\n
So what\u2019s the end game now that the war has concluded its third week? After all, the conflict is almost certainly extending beyond the initial four weeks that Trump cited. And limited operations for U.S. boots on the ground remain on the table, whether to seize nuclear sites or Iran\u2019s oil-exporting hub, Kharg Island.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can leave the regime intact but, if it is neutralized militarily, President Trump could claim that the Iranian military does not pose a threat to shipping through the strait. That would certainly be an important victory,\u201d said Thierry Wizman, a top economic strategist for the Macquarie Group.<\/p>\n
The U.S. is currently targeting Iranian fast-attack vessels and drones near the strait, relying on A-10 Warthog fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the U.S. claims victory and there is no formal surrender, and then you have an attack by Iran on a [tanker] vessel, then that would look very bad for the U.S.,\u201d Wizman said, warning of a too-early \u201cmission accomplished\u201d celebration. \u201cIt really must be airtight. That\u2019s why, in the absence of a formal agreement, this can last a long, long time because you have to basically get everything that\u2019s out there.\u201d<\/p>\n
But an end is within reach, even if the timeline is extended an extra month or so, said Richard Goldberg, senior advisor for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies neoconservative think tank.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether it\u2019s four weeks or eight weeks\u2014whatever is planned\u2014this is not an endless conflict,\u201d said Goldberg, who previously served as Iranian counteroffensive director on Trump\u2019s National Security Council. \u201cWe would not want to stop until they can\u2019t keep opening fire. Then we can manage the situation with or without a ceasefire. Otherwise, Iran has a victory of sorts where they can continue to extort the West and threaten to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the narrow passageway controlling 20% of the world\u2019s oil and exported natural gas remains effectively closed, representing the greatest energy supply shock ever, although some oil barrels are rerouted and Iran is allowing a few select tankers through. When and if the strait is reopened, it will take months to resume normal oil flows and, although prices will dip from their highs, they would remain elevated because of the heightened risks and insurance costs. And nearly 20% of Qatar\u2019s gas-exporting facilities will remain offline with an announced repair timeline of three to five years.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery day that passes, your supply shock is getting wider and wider, and to get out of that is getting harder and harder,\u201d said Sara Hakim, director of natural gas for ICF energy consultants.<\/p>\n
Differing opinions<\/p>\n
The U.S. and Israel could have continued negotiations toward a nuclear compromise, but they opted for a surprise strike on the Iranian leadership on Feb. 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many others. His son now holds the same role.<\/p>\n
Since then, the conflict has escalated beyond most expectations to include the entire Gulf region and the stoppage of energy flows, dramatically disrupting the global economy, said Jim Krane, energy fellow and Middle East expert at Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would take a lot of spin at this point to still call it a victory. It would require the U.S. to eat some crow really,\u201d he said. \u201cThe U.S. is supposed to be the Gulf\u2019s security provider, not the instigator of regional warfare that stops the oil flow.\u201d<\/p>\n
The \u201cenergy-for-security\u201d relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia along with much of the region dates back 80 years to President Franklin D. Roosevelt.<\/p>\n
\u201cNow we don\u2019t have either one. We don\u2019t have any oil; we don\u2019t have any security,\u201d Krane pointed out. \u201cThis is a 180-degree reversal of its original intent. It\u2019s getting hard to watch.\u201d<\/p>\n
It will now take years to rebuild both the relationships with the Gulf states and to rebuild the damaged energy facilities, he added.<\/p>\n
And Israel killing Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council, who was acting as a day-to-day leader for Iran during the war, made a negotiated peace more difficult as the militant Revolutionary Guard takes more control. Krane likened Larijani to Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, now the interim president after the U.S. arrested former leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in January.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe had a pretty good track record of negotiating in good faith, so killing him I think was a big mistake. That makes it a lot harder,\u201d Krane said of Larijani. \u201cI don\u2019t see an easy off-ramp.\u201d<\/p>\n
Since then, Trump has lashed out at allies as \u201ccowards\u201d for not assisting militarily in reopening the strait, calling NATO a \u201cpaper tiger\u201d without the U.S. And Iran\u2019s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran would show \u201czero restraint\u201d if its energy infrastructure was struck again.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the White House is pulling every lever to keep prices, especially prices at the pump, from getting out of control. There\u2019s the 172 million barrels of oil slated for release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve\u2014almost half of the 400 million barrels scheduled to come out of reserves worldwide\u2014the loosening of sanctions on Russian oil, the potential loosening on waterborne Iranian crude, the 60-day Jones Act waiver to allow for foreign tankers to move oil and products domestically, and more.<\/p>\n
Still, the U.S. average for the cost of a gallon of regular unleaded oil has spiked 45% from January lows and counting, even though U.S. oil prices remain lower than the rest of the world and U.S. natural gas costs are largely unchanged. The national average could exceed $4.00 a gallon by the end of the weekend.<\/p>\n
Are boots needed?<\/p>\n
Then there\u2019s the question of whether the war will require so-called boots on the ground in Iran, not for a full ground invasion, but for select, but dangerous, special operations. Trump has said he does not want to deploy troops on the ground in Iran, but he\u2019s left some wiggle room.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s a tangential view you can\u2019t do all this by air power. At some point you may have to put boots on the ground. Maybe that\u2019s the case,\u201d Wizman said.<\/p>\n
Troops could be used selectively on the shoreline of the Strait of Hormuz, at nuclear sites, or even on Iran\u2019s Kharg Island, which the U.S. has already bombed but avoided hitting energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s missile and drone defenses would need to be further crippled first, Goldberg said. \u201cIf you were to put boots on the ground on Kharg, they\u2019d be vulnerable to drones, they\u2019d be vulnerable to other threats,\u201d he said. \u201cOne missile into the power plant shuts down the export terminal without destroying the oil.\u00a0That to me seems like a better solution.\u201d<\/p>\n
Regardless, the top priority is reopening the Strait of Hormuz and safely escorting tankers through.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re able to conduct the escort missions and defeat any threats that are still posed by the regime, then the [Iranian] regime probably has lost at that point,\u201d Goldberg said.<\/p>\n
#weeks #Iran #war #seeking #billion #heres #success #Trump<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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