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On the morning after the election, Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the major reason for the dramatic loss for Republicans was the American public\u2019s opposition to the war. \u201cEveryone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,\u201d he wrote, in reference to the ongoing conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes against Iran in late February 2026.<\/p>\n
While it is rare for a vice president to make such a critical proclamation about their own administration\u2019s policy, President Donald Trump later stated that he did not disagree with Vance\u2019s appraisal of the role that frustration with the Iran war played in voters\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n
But whether this changes Trump\u2019s view on next steps in the ongoing conflict remains unclear. Reporting over the past few weeks has indicated that the U.S. military has been actively preparing options and increasing capabilities in the Persian Gulf region in the event the president directs a resumption of hostilities.<\/p>\n
As an expert on Middle East affairs and a former senior official at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, I\u2019m aware that months of conflict have failed to bring Iran to its knees, force regime change or militarily defeat a perceived threat to U.S. assets and allies. Escalating now is unlikely to change those realities \u2013 and it carries the additional risk of further damaging Republicans in the eyes of Americans voters as they turn toward the 2028 presidential race.<\/p>\n
Even if Trump were to ratchet up the conflict, moreover, it\u2019s unclear how much wiggle room he\u2019ll have come January facing a Democratic Congress almost uniformly opposed to the war.<\/p>\n
Sunk costs<\/p>\n
Part of the issue facing Iran war hawks in Washington now is that the conflict has caused serious setbacks for the regime in Tehran without satisfying the officially stated strategic reasons for going to war.<\/p>\n
They argue that pulling back now \u2013 as welcome as that might be for Americans struggling with the associated rising cost of fuel \u2013 may allow Iran to rebuild before the conflict is \u201cwon.\u201d Moreover, it would render the military and reputational costs already sunk by Washington as wasted.<\/p>\n
Among the achievements of this war touted by the Trump administration has been the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khameini, along with the killing of scores of senior leaders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \u2013 including individuals like the former head of Iran\u2019s National Security Council Ali Larijani. Significant elements of Iran\u2019s air defense and radar network, ballistic missile and drone production, and storage and launch sites have also been destroyed. And Iran\u2019s already outdated navy and air force has been further degraded.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the U.S.-imposed naval blockade against Iranian-linked shipping in the Persian Gulf cut off a crucial lifeline for Iran\u2019s economy. And additional sanctions and economic penalties imposed by Washington have served to further devalue Iran\u2019s currency and deprive Iran of additional financial links to the international banking system.<\/p>\n
Down but not out<\/p>\n
Yet for all the U.S. successes in degrading the Iranian military by limitless aerial bombardment and the significant financial pressure against the Iranian economy, an obvious endgame remains elusive.<\/p>\n
Despite weakening the Iranian government \u2013 now led by Ali Khameinei\u2019s son, Mojtaba, and a new echelon of senior IRGC commanders \u2013 the Islamic Republic remains intact. Moreover, it still possesses enough ballistic missiles and drones to hold the region at risk, while continuing to impose significant control over its population.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, U.S. military spending continues to rise. In September, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office assessed that the military costs of the Iran War had already totaled US$38 billion. Since then, that number has only increased. And that is to say nothing of the associated global economic costs that have resulted from Iran\u2019s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 a key shipping route for oil and gas.<\/p>\n
Should Trump decide to change course on Iran, he \u2013 and others \u2013 may think that the money, effort and lives of 19 American servicemen killed in the conflict would have been spent with no obvious objective achieved. Yet continued military expenditure with no strategic endgame could only magnify those same costs.<\/p>\n
To Iran, the midterm results have not changed its public position. Mojtaba Khameini has issued statements directing the IRGC to widen the conflict in the region and perhaps beyond should the U.S. and Israel attack again. At the same time, a statement attributed to him indicates that hostilities between the United States and Iran will persist regardless of the balance of party political power in Washington.<\/p>\n
This raises questions about the prospects for diplomacy. During the summer, the U.S. and Iran agreed to an initial 14-point memorandum of understanding that, if finalized, could have brought a permanent end to the hostilities. But since the 60-day clock on that agreement lapsed, no parallel diplomatic agreement has emerged.<\/p>\n
No practical solution<\/p>\n
Even with the major shift in the U.S. political landscape, it remains unclear whether Trump will resume operations against Iran before the new Congress is sworn in. The messy election result in Israel \u2013 which has left the pro-war, and potentially outgoing, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyanu with potentially more reason to double-down in Iran \u2013 only complicates matters.<\/p>\n
The U.S. military certainly appears to be ready to engage in a new round of attacks against Iran if so directed, and Iran is ready to retaliate. But given the shortcomings in the U.S. inventory \u2013 with munitions and missile and air defense capabilities depleted by eight months of war \u2013 escalation is something Trump and his inner circle will have to consider with caution.<\/p>\n
Iran might force the issue by engaging in asymmetric attacks in the region or beyond that they have not attempted already. Or it could launch a coordinated offensive with its partners in the region \u2013 notably the Houthis in Yemen, who have become more active in their own conflict with Saudi Arabia in recent months.<\/p>\n
But save an event that the Trump administration perceives is giving it cover to act, there are no clear indications emerging from Washington as to which way it will move.<\/p>\n
Vance diagnosed a widely perceived political problem for Republicans: Voters don\u2019t want more war. But what he noticeably didn\u2019t mention was a practical solution. The Middle East conflict \u2013 and the United States\u2019 role in it \u2013 are, as such, locked in a stalemate.<\/p>\n
America and Iran have both borne significant political, military and economic costs. A decision not to pursue an endgame would leave those sunk; doing so may only increase them.<\/p>\n
Javed Ali, Associate Professor of Practice of Public Policy, University of Michigan<\/p>\n
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.<\/p>\n
#lost #Vance #wrote #Iran #war #cost #billion #U.S #lives<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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