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With U.S. crude nearly doubling in price since the beginning\u00a0 of the year, and with the Strait of Hormuz still more-or-less blocked, the cost of almost everything from cars to flights to even those reliant on plastics or semiconductors (to power phones or that new AI technology everyone\u2019s raving about), April is shaping up to be a very cruel month, indeed.<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump will address the nation at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday to deliver what the White House has called \u201can important update on Iran\u201d\u2014his first primetime remarks since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Feb. 28. The address will air across all four major broadcast networks, forcing scheduled programming to move to the side, including the season finales of The Masked Singer and a special episode of Survivor.<\/p>\n
The address comes as gas prices cross the $4 a gallon threshold on average in the U.S., and Trump\u2019s approval rating has sunk below 40% in recent polling while he continues to advance a war that the majority of Americans say\u00a0 they oppose. Politically, for Trump, the pressure to explain the war\u2014the who, what, why and when\u2014has become unavoidable<\/p>\n
What Trump might say<\/p>\n
Based on Trump\u2019s own comments and White House leaks, the broad strokes are already visible. Over the last day, Trump has repeatedly told reporters that he has a 2-3 week plan to end operations, consistent with his remarks to Reuters earlier Wednesday that the U.S. will be \u201cout of Iran pretty quickly\u201d and could return for \u201cspot hits\u201d if needed. The framing appears to be a victory lap: Trump has already claimed \u201cfull regime change,\u201d though Iran does not, in fact, have a new government, and said U.S. action has ensured Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n
Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group who covers Iran and oil, noted on X that the administration appears to be coalescing around a specific justification: that Iran was building a \u201cshield\u201d of missiles and drones behind which it planned to secretly rebuild its nuclear program, and that the U.S. had to act before it was too late.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe may declare that the strait is wide open and there\u2019s no problem,\u201d Tom Kloza, a veteran oil analyst and advisor to Gulf Oil, told Fortune. \u201cYou just don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n
The ceasefire picture is muddier than the public posturing suggests. Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran\u2019s president had requested one, but Tehran\u2019s public response was quick and scathing: \u201cNo attention is given to the delusions and falsehoods of criminals,\u201d a spokesperson for President Masoud Pezeshkian\u2019s office wrote on X. Behind the scenes, however, a real diplomatic track appears to be in motion. Vice President JD Vance spoke with Pakistani intermediaries as recently as Tuesday, delivering what a source described as a \u201cstern\u201d message that Trump was \u201cimpatient\u201d and that pressure on Iranian infrastructure would increase until a deal is reached, Bloomberg reported. Vance was tasked by Trump to privately communicate that the U.S. is open to a ceasefire as long as certain demands are met.<\/p>\n
In a sign of counter-programming, Iranian state media reported Wednesday that Pezeshkian will release an \u201cimportant\u201d letter addressed directly to the American people, expected shortly.<\/p>\n
Even the word \u201cceasefire\u201d is slippery in this context, Kloza warned. \u201cOne man\u2019s ceasefire is another\u2019s cauldron of boiling war,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not mathematical language. It\u2019s very equivocal.\u201d<\/p>\n
Confusion over the Strait of Hormuz<\/p>\n
It\u2019s unclear what exactly Trump\u2019s preconditions even are. On Tuesday, he told European allies to \u201cgo get your own oil,\u201d and said securing the Strait of Hormuz wasn\u2019t America\u2019s problem anymore. Wall Street cheered that on. By Wednesday,\u00a0 Trump wrote on Truth Social that he wanted the Strait of Hormuz be \u201copen, free, and clear\u201d before ceasefire talks could begin.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The United Arab Emirates responded by asking the UN to authorize measures, including the use of force, to reopen the strait, a sign of increasing desperation among Gulf states dependent on passage through it. That may be the most consequential development for markets: the strait is the single variable the oil market cares about most, and Trump has effectively washed his hands (then dirtied them again) of it.<\/p>\n
The speech arrives against a backdrop of continued escalation. An Iranian missile struck a fuel oil tanker in Qatari waters Wednesday morning, while Houthi rebels launched a third barrage of missiles toward Israel. More than 3,000 people have been killed across the Middle East, including 13 U.S. service members. And an American journalist was kidnapped in Iraq on Tuesday by suspected Iranian-backed militants.<\/p>\n
The International Energy Agency has called the Hormuz disruption the largest supply disruption in history. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Wednesday that April will be significantly worse than March, because oil shipments already in transit when the war began have now been delivered.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn April, there is nothing,\u201d Birol said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Marko Papic of BCA Research estimates the world has lost 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply, but warns that number will double by mid-April as strategic reserves run dry. The cumulative loss of crude, refined products, and petrochemicals is approaching half a billion barrels, Kloza estimated.<\/p>\n
\u201cI have a hunch that whatever he says, it\u2019s not going to have the desired impact of really reversing all of these high prices,\u201d Kloza said. \u201cI think we\u2019ve started something now that can\u2019t be stopped in its tracks.\u201d<\/p>\n
The strategic petroleum reserve release\u2014400 million barrels across IEA member countries, the largest on record\u2014has helped, but Kloza put the math in perspective: \u201cWhen you think about losing 10 to 20 million barrels a day and releasing 1.3 million, it\u2019s pretty obvious that it\u2019s a pop gun against howitzers.\u201d<\/p>\n
#Trump #address #nation #Wednesday #Iran #war #Wednesdayheres #expect<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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