<\/p>\n
A deepening conflict in the Persian Gulf has upended oil and gas markets. It may also have provided coal \u2014 the dirtiest fossil fuel \u2014 with its most significant boost in years.<\/p>\n
Climate negotiators have been trying for decades to consign coal to history. That task was already challenging before last month, thanks to expanding energy demand in Asia, a growing focus on domestic self-reliance and faltering programs to wean emerging economies onto greener power.<\/p>\n
Now, however, a second gas supply crunch in just over four years is pushing countries across Europe and Asia to fall back on the black stuff, perceived as a readily available alternative. Add in US political support, and coal\u2019s long goodbye begins to look even more protracted, a reversal that threatens to undo years of progress on curbing harmful emissions.<\/p>\n
Read: Oil jumps on Trump\u2019s war threat, stock rally fades
Fuel costs soar across Africa, governments race to respond
No April Fools\u2019 joke: Diesel still rockets over R7\/l, petrol over R3\/l<\/p>\n
Japan, one of the world\u2019s largest gas importers, on Friday said it would expand the use of less-efficient coal power plants, as it tries to diversify its generation capabilities. In Bangladesh and India, coal plants are already shouldering the burden of shortfalls elsewhere.<\/p>\n
Even in Europe, where plenty of dirty power has been phased out, the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic could all see more coal use if gas prices remain high. Germany is considering reactivating mothballed coal-fired plants as a way to curb electricity prices.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are now seeing a second, very large energy supply shock,\u201d said Samantha Dart, global co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. \u201cIf you\u2019re sitting in Asia, going through this again, it\u2019s possible you change your strategy long term \u2014 rely more on coal for longer, build out your renewables faster and reduce your exposure to natural gas.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Gas has long been sold to the emerging world as a bridge fuel \u2014 a cleaner alternative to coal that is affordable and reliable, and a step on the path to zero-emissions power generation.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
The claim became harder to sustain after the upheaval that followed Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, with the price surge and industrial demand destruction that followed. Then came US and Israeli strikes on Iran and a retaliatory attack on Qatar\u2019s giant Ras Laffan plant that could mean years of disruption.<\/p>\n
Gas prices in Europe and Asia have yet to reach 2022 levels, but they have already soared, pricing many emerging economies out, with industrial clients already severely impacted across Asia.<\/p>\n
Read: Iran war triggers hunt to secure new fuel supplies in Africa<\/p>\n
\u201cHigh energy prices will lead governments, industries and households to look at other options,\u201d said Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised if there were, at least temporarily, upward pressure on the use of coal both for electricity generation, but also for the industry sector.\u201d<\/p>\n
Europe\u2019s push into renewable energy has helped to reduce the need for fossil fuel generation, cushioning the blow. The number of coal plants has also decreased, limiting the switching option. Indeed, since 2015, coal capacity across Europe has decreased by 45%, according to BloombergNEF.<\/p>\n
But with renewables unable to meet the full extent of demand, rising gas prices will still push some consumers to turn to coal. Power analysts with the London Stock Exchange Group estimate European countries could generate around 20% more electricity from coal this summer than last, if the European gas benchmark averages about 50 euros per megawatt-hour. That figure currently stands at around 54 euros.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a bigger disruption than the Russian war,\u201d said Tony Knutson, global head of thermal coal markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd, given the impact on a larger number of countries. Those without enough gas will be forced to pull the coal lever, he added. \u201cI don\u2019t think they have a choice.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
The biggest swing to coal is likely to be in Asia, where a heavy reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East \u2014 and in many cases a limited ability to absorb higher costs \u2014 is already causing acute pain. Newcastle coal futures, the benchmark for the power plant fuel in Asia, has climbed by roughly a third this year, hitting the highest level since 2024 earlier this month.<\/p>\n
Large economies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are major liquefied natural gas importers and also maintain large coal fleets, giving them the ability \u2014 and in some cases the incentive \u2014 to burn more dirtier fuel as LNG supplies tighten. Japan will allow more coal-fired plants in capacity auctions, and South Korea has also said it is considering moving away from its own curbs on more polluting power.<\/p>\n
For top consumers that are also large producers, like India, war-driven fuel shortages strengthen the case for coal \u2014 especially as temperatures begin to climb ahead of the summer, lifting demand.<\/p>\n
Authorities plan to ask coal plants to defer voluntary maintenance shutdowns until peak demand passes and have instructed Tata Power Co.\u2019s four\u2011gigawatt plant in Gujarat, which was shut for months, to operate at full capacity until June, when rains usually begin to cover the country.<\/p>\n
Coal India Ltd., the world\u2019s largest producer of the fuel, saw shares rise to the highest since 2024 earlier this month.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis crisis has given a new leverage to coal in India,\u201d said Anandji Prasad, technical director at Western Coalfields Ltd., a unit of Coal India. \u201cWe have been looking at aggressively developing coal for power generation, but this crisis has brought in focus the need to substitute petroleum products and gas with coal.\u201d<\/p>\n
The country\u2019s cement plants, long reliant on petcoke, a by-product of oil refining, were among those forced to reconsider when prices began to soar.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re stocking up coal for the next 2-3 months, but this can\u2019t be a long-term solution,\u201d said Hari Mohan Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement Ltd., pointing to the lower ash content and higher calorific value of the standard feedstock. \u201cThe cement industry needs petcoke.\u201d<\/p>\n
Neighboring Bangladesh\u2019s new government has been forced to seek $2 billion in loans to be able to import enough fuel to survive the summer. The country is also set to run coal-fired plants at maximum levels in the near-term as LNG prices rise and power shortages deepen, said Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst for the country at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
China, as the world\u2019s largest consumer, is theoretically vulnerable. In fact, it has been reaping the benefit of a long-standing campaign to diversify energy supply and \u2014 after a series of power shortages in 2021 and 2022 \u2014 to double down on domestic coal production.<\/p>\n
Still, the most insulated major economy appears to be the US. Massive shale production, combined with export capacity that was maxed out even before the war, have kept gas prices little changed since the start of the war, providing little fresh incentive to eye coal.<\/p>\n
Even so, political support from President Donald Trump\u2019s administration has given the fuel a boost. Earlier this month, Terra Energy Center announced a $1 billion investment in what would be the first new coal power project in more than a decade in the country.<\/p>\n
Globally, coal demand had been expected to start declining this decade. In December, the IEA said usage in 2025 had edged up to 8.85 billion metric tons and it was forecast to fall 1.4% through 2027.<\/p>\n
That now looks far less likely \u2014 even if the current setback proves a temporary one, on a path that will ultimately push countries toward more clean energy.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy gut tells me that in 2026 it\u2019s certainly not going to decrease in line with projections that were using pre\u2011war assumptions,\u201d said Doug Arent, senior fellow at the WRI Polsky Center for the Global Energy Transition. \u201cThe most important thing is to keep the lights on and your productivity moving.\u201d<\/p>\n
(Michael Bloomberg \u2014 the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News \u2014 committed $500 million to Beyond Carbon, a campaign aimed at closing the remaining coal-fired power plants in the US by 2030 and halting the development of new natural gas-fired plants. He also started a campaign to close a quarter of the world\u2019s remaining coal plants and all proposed coal plants by 2025.)<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
#Iran #wars #gas #supply #shock #pushes #top #consumers #coal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A deepening conflict in the Persian Gulf has upended oil and gas markets. It may…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[3581,909,419,376,3298,1182,424,187,524],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3024"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3024\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}