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The U.S.-Israeli campaign in Iran has been criticized as a war of choice, one with an unclear strategy and even more uncertain target outcomes. But for one of Wall Street\u2019s leading financial chiefs, the choice to wage war in the Middle East may actually have been an unavoidable one.<\/p>\n
Now in its second month, the war has exposed the extent to which global energy and financial markets rely on stability in the Middle East. Shortly after the incursion began, Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard began warning ships to steer clear of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that once allowed one fifth of globally traded oil and natural gas supplies to leave the Persian Gulf. The strait has been under an effective blockade ever since, sending oil prices surging and leaving markets jittery.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The closure has created \u201cuncertainty\u201d and \u201cshort-term risks\u201d for the world economy, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said during an interview with Axios aired Wednesday. The current state of the campaign may not have been part of President Donald Trump\u2019s original war plan, given that he was reportedly surprised by Iran\u2019s quick move to weaponize the strait. But Dimon also asked a different question, wondering why the U.S. and its allies accepted the risk of a hostile regime controlling the shores of the global economy\u2019s most important chokepoint for as long as they did.<\/p>\n
\u201cHaving those folks, their throat on the Strait of Hormuz, and funding all these proxy wars. Why the western world put up with all these proxy wars for 45 years is kind of beyond me,\u201d Dimon said.<\/p>\n
The Iranian regime has existed since a revolutionary upheaval in 1979 that replaced the U.S.-backed monarchy with a theocratic Islamic republic that currently rules the country. Post-revolution Iran has consistently been an adversary to the U.S. and Israel. The country has habitually funded and supplied weapons to various proxy militias across the Middle East, such as the Houthis in Yemen, which in recent years have regularly disrupted trade and shipping in the Red Sea and around the Horn of Africa.<\/p>\n
Hopes for permanent peace<\/p>\n
The Trump administration has come under fire from overseas allies, Democrats, and even some factions of his own party for engaging in what has been described as a war of choice. Voters at large are unhappy with the campaign as well, with most polls suggesting a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump\u2019s handling of the war and find the administration\u2019s justifications for it insufficient.<\/p>\n
Dimon pushed back against that narrative somewhat. When interviewer Jim VandeHei, Axios\u2019 co-founder and CEO, framed the military campaign as a \u201cwar of choice,\u201d Dimon asked to \u201cstep back on that a little bit.\u201d He said that the dovish position that Iran posed \u201cno imminent threat\u201d to U.S. national security is really saying \u201cthe bad thing hasn\u2019t happened\u201d yet.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019ve been killing people around the world for 45-plus years. They\u2019ve killed a lot of Americans, they\u2019ve funded not just Hamas; Hezbollah, the Houthis. They have terrorist cells here,\u201d Dimon said.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s Hormuz blockade employs a similar strategy to the one deployed by the Houthis on the other end of the Arabian peninsula. In retaliation to Israel\u2019s military incursion in Gaza, the militia began targeting ships with missile and drone strikes in 2024, forcing vessels to transit around Africa instead in a deviation that added up to 30% in transit times. A ceasefire deal was mediated last year, but many ships have continued to steer clear of Houthi-controlled waters, especially since the war in Iran started.<\/p>\n
The banker also pointed out how Iran \u201cnever gave up\u201d on its goal to build nuclear weapons, despite U.S. strikes against Iranian facilities last year and tentative talks between the two countries to secure a deal over the regime\u2019s nuclear program shortly before the current war\u2019s onset.<\/p>\n
In Dimon\u2019s telling, the Iranian threat was real and escalating, and he argued that neutering that risk would likely turn the campaign into a success story to balance out the disruption caused so far.<\/p>\n
\u201cI literally hope it turns out well and that somehow we get peace in the Middle East permanently,\u201d Dimon said.<\/p>\n
An ambitious target<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s goal for stability in the Middle East remains a lofty one. Despite weeks of aerial strikes and crippled leadership, the regime is still standing and continues to exert control on transit through the strait. Experts have also said that ground forces would likely be needed to capture and neutralize Iran\u2019s enriched uranium stores.<\/p>\n
The lack of a clear plan for Iran following the war\u2019s conclusion has also raised questions, with researchers at the Brookings Institution, a think tank, warning last month that the conflict could bring increased refugee flows and prolonged energy disruption long after its conclusion. Some governments have had similar hesitations. Officials in Turkey, for instance, have expressed concern that a regime collapse in Iran could leave a power vacuum empowering other regional movements\u2014such as the Kurdish militia located between Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq\u2014further eroding prospects for stability in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Despite the challenging odds, Dimon laid out a narrow path toward stability. He noted that the weakening of Iran and its proxy actors might lower hostilities for a time. It also helps that multiple stakeholders in the region\u2014Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as the U.S. and Israel\u2014are all more or less aligned in their goals, leading to \u201chigher chance with long-term peace,\u201d Dimon said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Countering calls at home for Trump to exit the conflict, many U.S. allies in the Middle East have reportedly been urging the president to press forward with his goals in Iran. Last week, the New York Times reported that Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia\u2019s de facto leader, has privately cautioned Trump against winding down the war, advising the U.S. president that success in Iran represented a \u201chistoric opportunity\u201d to reshape power dynamics in the region. Other Gulf states, including the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, have reportedly held similar talks pushing for the war to proceed until the Iranian leadership has been overhauled.<\/p>\n
The longer term strategic payoff of a more stable Middle East would likely justify the volatility incurred since the war began, according to Dimon. But over the past month, the Trump administration has taken its crash course in learning just how elusive a foreign policy goal that might be.<\/p>\n
#Jamie #Dimon #Iran #war #inevitable #Middle #East #payoff #worth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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