![](\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/.image\/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200\/NDA6MDAwMDAwMDAyOTMyOTQw\/goldprice_mf_04052026.jpg\")
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Gold had a rough March, to say the least, but UBS isn\u2019t backing down.
The Swiss bank reiterated its bullish call on the king metal, doubling down on gold, with prices averaging $5,000 per ounce in 2026, holding near $4,800 in 2027 and $4,250 in 2028.<\/p>\n
However, even after a steep drop in March, UBS sees substantial upside ahead. That\u2019s a notable call, given how quickly the market\u2019s sentiment has shifted.<\/p>\n
Gold fell roughly 14% in March, weighed down by rising bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and renewed inflation concerns amid skyrocketing oil prices. Naturally, these kinds of moves raise questions about whether the rally has run its course.<\/p>\n
UBS views it differently, though.<\/p>\n
The bank feels that the long-term story hasn\u2019t changed, and the recent market weakness is more of a buying opportunity than a warning sign.<\/p>\n
How has gold performed so far in April?<\/p>\n
The safe-haven metal had its work cut out for it in April, after posting its worst month since 2008 in March as hopes for rate cuts faded, Reuters noted.<\/p>\n
For context, Reuters market data snapshot (April 4) revealed that spot gold traded at $4,675.67.<\/p>\n
Gold entered the month with aplomb, rebounding 3.2% on March 31 at $4,652.31 an ounce. It then jumped again on April 1 to $4,784.22, the highest it has been since March 19, as the U.S.dollar continued weakening and hopes for Middle East de-escalation picked up.<\/p>\n
Related: Veteran analyst sends message to Tesla investors after Q1 miss<\/p>\n
However, that move didn\u2019t hold up as cleanly as investors had hoped.<\/p>\n
Gold tanked on April 2 as the dollar firmed, oil spiked rose above $100, and inflation worries crept back up after President Donald Trump offered no clear timeline for wrapping up the Iran conflict, MarketScreener indicated.<\/p>\n
So far, April has felt like a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and higher-for-longer rate fears.<\/p>\n
Gold and silver returns over time<\/p>\n
Gold 30 days: -8.25%Gold 6 months: +17.73%Gold 1 year: +53.20%Gold 5 years: +168.00%Gold 20 years: +691.88%Silver 30 days: -10.99%Silver 6 months: +49.69%Silver 1 year: +145.96%Silver 5 years: +193.55%Silver 20 years: +520.28%
\nSource: GoldPrice.org
\nUBS doubles down on gold\u2019s long-term case<\/p>\n
UBS lays out the case for leaning into the weakness.<\/p>\n
In a recent note to the client, the bank made it clear that the recent pullback doesn\u2019t change the bigger picture.<\/p>\n
\u00a0\u201cThe risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising,\u201d UBS said, pointing to a macro setup that still favors the shiny yellow metal.<\/p>\n
Related: IRS adds Palantir tech to find tax cheats<\/p>\n
The bank argues that if see any signs of sluggishness in global growth, that may trigger fiscal or monetary stimulus, which would most likely translate into robust gains for gold.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Lower real rates and robust liquidity will push investors toward non-yielding assets, such as bullion.<\/p>\n
Moreover, the recent dip is more of a positioning reset, according to UBS.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe think any pullbacks present opportunities for investors to build positions,\u201d UBS added, underscoring the view that such dips need to be bought, rather than feared.<\/p>\n
Consequently, UBS hasn\u2019t walked back on its broader outlook expecting gold to jump to new highs this year, even after cutting its 2026 average price forecast slightly.<\/p>\n
UBS argues gold\u2019s pullback misses a bigger story developing beneath recent price weakness.<\/p>\n
Raa/NurPhoto/Getty Images<\/p>\n
Wall Street’s targets on gold<\/p>\n
Gold\u2019s recent sluggishness hasn\u2019t shaken Wall Street\u2019s long-term conviction in the shiny yellow metal.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The top banks still see significant upside, even amid short-term volatility that keeps investors on edge.\u00a0<\/p>\n
J.P. Morgan (2026 year-end): $6,300Deutsche Bank (2026): $6,000Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale (year-end): $6,000Goldman Sachs (end-2026): $5,400HSBC (first half of 2026): $5,000What the gold flow data are saying<\/p>\n
Gold\u2019s macro backdrop is still impressive, though we\u2019ve seen the speculative crowd cool off a bit.<\/p>\n
The latest numbers suggest that official-sector demand remains in the green, while ETF buyers continue to add exposure.<\/p>\n
Futures traders are still trimming their bullish bets, but overall, it appears more like a sentiment reset than a break in demand.<\/p>\n
Central banks are still buying, according to Gold.org. The banks scooped up a net 19 metric tons of gold in February, after netting 5 tons in January. That is tracking behind the previous 12-month average of 27 tons, underscoring that the broader reserve-diversification trend remains intact.\u00a0ETF money is still coming in, Gold.org indicated. Global physically backed gold ETFs added $5.3 billion in February, taking their streak to nine straight months of inflows. On top of that, holdings jumped by 26 tons to a record 4,171 tons, while assets under management surged to an all-time high of $701 billion.Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) positioning has cooled off, but remains bullish. In COMEX gold futures, non-commercial traders held 207,602 long contracts and 44,400 short contracts as of March 31, leaving a net long of 163,202 contracts. Though that was below the 5,125 contracts from the previous week, the market clearly de-risked.\u00a0Next big tests for gold<\/p>\n
Gold\u2019s next macro check-in will be coming in the next few days.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The results matter because they show how the data affect rate-cut odds, yields, and the dollar.<\/p>\n
Fed minutes, April 8: The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in March. If the minutes point to the committee leaning more hawkish, that could potentially pressure gold by bumping yield expectations.Consumer Price Index (CPI), April 10: The latest CPI report pointed to headline inflation at 2.4% year over year and core inflation at 2.5% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated. If we see a softer March print, that would lead to renewed easing hopes, paving the way for stronger gold performance.\u00a0Jobs report, May 8: March payrolls rose 178,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. A cooler labor report will naturally support gold.<\/p>\n
Related: Powell sends message on U.S. economy and AI-related job loss fear<\/p>\n
#UBS #surprising #message #gold #investors #weakness<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gold had a rough March, to say the least, but UBS isn\u2019t backing down.The Swiss…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[259],"tags":[158,92,574,379,2098,7250],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3194"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3194"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3194\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}