<\/p>\n
Donald Trump\u2019s second big shock to the world economy since he returned to the White House looks increasingly likely to force central banks into a new round of tightening.<\/p>\n
The US president\u2019s war on Iran has already produced an initial bout of inflation, with further energy-related pressure in the pipeline, putting global policymakers on alert for possible interest-rate hikes. That contrasts with this time last year, when his so-called \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariffs left officials bracing for a synchronized hit to growth.<\/p>\n
A notably higher trajectory for near-term monetary policy is clear from the aggregate measure of advanced-economy interest rates compiled by Bloomberg Economics \u2014 it now is up about 35 basis points at year-end from what the same measure showed three months ago.<\/p>\n
Policymakers around the world are increasingly realizing that damage to energy production capacity in the Middle East is extensive enough to make a lingering supply shock probable. That\u2019s consequential for inflation, and monetary policy.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The impact is still set to be asymmetrical, with central banks such as European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada seen hiking, while others \u2014 such as the Bank of England \u2014 now in the hold column instead of the cutting bracket.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg Economics still sees the US Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs, though January\u2019s call for four cuts is now down to two.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says\u2026<\/p>\n
\u201cSharply higher oil prices, head-spinning uncertainty, and \u2014 for the Fed \u2014 changing leadership and political pressure for low rates, add up to a challenging environment for central banks. We think the war keeps most in wait-and-see mode in the second quarter. Right now, it\u2019s hard to look much further ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Tom Orlik, global chief economist<\/p>\n
As usual, predicting the path for rates in the era of Trump is harder than it once might have been. And the binary nature of the Middle East war, leading to different outcomes depending on how long hostilities last, makes it even more difficult.<\/p>\n
With those provisos, here is Bloomberg\u2019s quarterly guide to monetary policy for 23 of the world\u2019s most important central banks \u2014 accounting for a combined 90% of the global economy.<\/p>\n
GROUP OF SEVEN
\nFederal Reserve<\/p>\n
Current federal funds rate (upper bound): 3.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 3.25%
\nMarket pricing: Swaps imply around a 30% chance the Fed will lower rates a quarter-point this year and a full reduction by the end of 2027.<\/p>\n
Jerome Powell<\/p>\n
For many economists and investors, war in the Middle East has upended already tentative forecasts for one or two rate cuts in the US by the end of the year.<\/p>\n
Chair Jerome Powell put it plainly in his news conference following the Fed\u2019s March 17-18 policy meeting when asked how the war might change things: \u201cThe economics effect could be bigger, they could be smaller, they could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n
On rates, Powell and other officials have said they\u2019re content to keep policy on hold as they wait for the conflict\u2019s economic impact to play out. Much depends on how long the war lasts.<\/p>\n
So far, with a leap in gasoline and diesel prices, near-term inflation expectations have jumped. But officials have emphasized it\u2019s too early to tell how energy costs will feed into other prices or whether they might put a damper on consumer spending. On the labor market side, data has been volatile, but the most recent jobs report, for March, was encouraging, with employers adding the most to payrolls since December 2024.<\/p>\n
The Fed\u2019s pending leadership drama, meanwhile, continues. Powell\u2019s term as chair expires May 15, but the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh, Trump\u2019s pick to replace him, is blocked by lawmakers upset by a criminal investigation into a building renovation project at the Fed.<\/p>\n
If Warsh isn\u2019t confirmed in time, Powell may continue in both of his key roles. He says he\u2019ll serve as chair pro tempore in any interim, and he also appears likely to continue as head of the Fed\u2019s rate-setting panel until a new Fed chair is sworn in.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Fed is likely to stay on hold at upcoming meetings amid elevated uncertainty and competing risks to its inflation and employment goals. But as the year goes on, BE expects it to cut rates in the fourth quarter as inflation resumes porgress toward 2% and unemployment drifts higher.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Chris G. Collins<\/p>\n
European Central Bank<\/p>\n
Current deposit rate: 2%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 2.25%
\nMarket pricing: Money markets are betting on between two and three 25-basis-point hikes this year with the first coming in June.<\/p>\n
Christine Lagarde<\/p>\n
The ECB is set to raise its deposit rate by a quarter-point as early as this month as policymakers seek to prevent surging energy costs from setting off another inflation spiral. With price growth accelerating at the steepest pace since 2022, longer-term expectations drifting higher and memories of the previous shock still fresh, officials are on high alert.<\/p>\n
Many argue that even if the Iran war ended quickly, its economic repercussions would linger. So far though, they\u2019ve stopped short of committing to a response. President Christine Lagarde has stressed that the ECB won\u2019t act without sufficient data \u2014 but also that policymakers won\u2019t be paralyzed by uncertainty.<\/p>\n
The ECB\u2019s latest staff projections highlight the risks: In a severe scenario, inflation in the 21-nation euro zone would surge past 6% \u2014 triple the target \u2014 while the economy slips into recession this year. A baseline forecast, which sees price pressures averaging 2.6% in 2026 already appears out of date.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe ECB is keen to avoid a repeat of 2022 and has signaled that it will act if energy prices remain elevated. Our baseline scenario is that the Governing Council will increase rates by 25 basis points in June to limit the rise in inflation expectations. In addition, we see the risks as skewed toward a follow-up move in September. However, an enduring ceasefire could reduce its worry, taking monetary tightening off the table.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014David Powell<\/p>\n
Bank of Japan<\/p>\n
Target rate (upper bound): 0.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 1.25%
\nMarket pricing: Traders are betting on two quarter-point hikes this year with the first hike coming by July.<\/p>\n
Kazuo Ueda<\/p>\n
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda faces high pressure as markets are pricing in the strong chance of a rate hike this quarter, with traders placing better-than-even odds of action as soon as this month.<\/p>\n
On top of the rising inflation risks due to Middle East tension, the yen trading at levels already near multi-decade lows complicates the BOJ\u2019s decision, as any dovish tilt could further weaken the currency and intensify cost-of-living pressures. At the same time, lackluster consumer spending and the potential economic fallout from the Iran conflict present reasons for caution.<\/p>\n
Ueda\u2019s coordination with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will be closely monitored, as the premier weighs higher borrowing costs against yen stability for households. Attention will also fall on June\u2019s bond purchase review amid ongoing market volatility.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says\u2026<\/p>\n
\u201cThe BOJ faces a clear risk: the oil-price shock will add to an inflation backdrop that\u2019s already firm. Strong pay gains from this year\u2019s shunto wage talks point to stickier service inflation. The BOJ\u2019s Tankan survey of corporate Japan, taken after the Iran war began, shows sentiment remains solid, with pricing behavior and inflation expectations heating up. We expect the BOJ to deliver two 25-bp rate hikes this year, in April and September.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Taro Kimura<\/p>\n
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Bank of England<\/p>\n
Current bank rate: 3.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 3.75%
\nMarket pricing: Traders are wagering on a full 25-basis-point hike by July and see a 60% probability of another to follow by year-end.<\/p>\n
Andrew Bailey<\/p>\n
BOE rate-setters have pushed back against market bets suggesting the UK central bank will hike rates to contain any resurgence in inflation.<\/p>\n
Governor Andrew Bailey warned traders are \u201cgetting ahead of themselves\u201d by expecting the BOE to increase borrowing costs with several officials playing down the threat of a feedback loop in prices triggered by higher energy bills.<\/p>\n
UK policymakers argue they are facing a different economic backdrop to 2022 when they were criticized for being too slow to act on inflation following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. This time, officials are more confident of containing any second-round inflation effects, pointing to a weak labor market and tepid economic growth.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe surge in energy prices presents a challenging trade-off for the BOE. On one hand, inflation will be higher. On the other, an already weak economy is facing fresh headwinds. That lowers the risk that the shock fans domestic cost pressures. We see the BOE staying on hold in 2026, consistent with a 50-bp uplift to our pre-war view. Swift de-escalation could put cuts back on the table. A fresh energy price spike would open the door to hikes.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Dan Hanson<\/p>\n
Bank of Canada<\/p>\n
Current overnight lending rate: 2.25%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 2.5%
\nMarket pricing: Swaps imply one full quarter-point hike by October with a 60% chance of one more to follow in December.<\/p>\n
Last month, the Bank of Canada signaled it was comfortable holding borrowing costs steady as it assesses how the middle east conflict unfolds, saying it would look through the immediate impact of the oil shock. Policymakers added they are prepared to act if higher energy costs begin feeding into broader inflation.<\/p>\n
In a summary of deliberations from the March decision, officials said they \u201cshould not lose sight\u201d of other economic headwinds. Governor Tiff Macklem has emphasized downside risks, including a soft labor market and sectoral and export damage from U.S. tariffs, alongside signs of economic slack such as more subdued core inflation. Canada is a major crude exporter, but the central bank says it\u2019s too early to assess the extent to which higher prices will end up boosting growth.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iran war will boost inflation in the near term, but we think there\u2019s little risk of a rate hike until year-end. Even as higher energy prices risk raising inflation expectations, central bankers seem convinced price pressures are contained. With the trade conflict with the US depressing Canadian sentiment and weighing on growth, we think the BOC will keep policy rates modestly accommodative. We expect the central bank to hold the overnight-rate target for most of the year. We expect a quarter-point rate hike near year-end as trade-policy uncertainty wanes and the outlook for the war becomes clearer.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Stuart Paul<\/p>\n
BRICS CENTRAL BANKS
\nPeople\u2019s Bank of China<\/p>\n
Current 7-day reverse repo rate: 1.4%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 1.2%<\/p>\n
The PBOC signaled it\u2019s keeping the \u201cmoderately loose\u201d monetary policy stance unchanged in the first meeting of its monetary policy committee after the Iran war broke out. While acknowledging China is facing \u201cexternal shocks,\u201d the central bank reaffirmed that it will keep liquidity ample and financing costs low.<\/p>\n
Officials have taken a cautious approach to big easing steps in recent years. The PBOC hasn\u2019t cut rates since the height of the trade war with the US last May. It\u2019s unlikely to tighten monetary policy, because sluggish consumer demand will likely prevent factories from fully passing on higher costs. Still, a growing number of economists at institutions such as Bank of America are predicting no further rate cut this year due to higher inflation.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe oil shock won\u2019t knock the PBOC off an easing path. For the PBOC to avoid rate cuts, two things must happen: a robust, self-sustaining recovery in domestic demand, and durable, demand-driven reflation. We see neither. We expect the PBOC to deliver two 10-bp rate cuts this year, one in 3Q26 and the other in 4Q26, as well as 50 bps of reductions in the RRR.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014David Qu<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank of India<\/p>\n
Current RBI repurchase rate: 5.25%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 5.25%<\/p>\n
Sanjay Malhotra<\/p>\n
India\u2019s central bank kept the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged this month and its stance at neutral, opting to wait for the full economic impact of the Iran war to unfold in an economy heavily reliant on imported energy.<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that elevated oil prices and supply chain disruptions could weigh on both inflation and growth. Even so, the RBI expects the economy to expand 6.9% in the fiscal year that began this month. If macroeconomic stability holds after the ceasefire talks, \u201cit is quite possible that low rates will continue for a long time,\u201d Malhotra said.<\/p>\n
Headline inflation is projected at 4.6% for the fiscal, comfortably within the RBI\u2019s 2% to 6% target band. For the first time, the central bank also issued a core inflation forecast of 4.4%.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019s recent curbs on speculative activities by banks in the currency markets, which pulled down rupee sharply against the dollar will not stay in place \u201cforever,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe RBI\u2019s April hold signals a focus on rupee stability over growth, aiming to contain second-round inflation from currency weakness. Our base case \u2014 assuming oil at $90 in fiscal 2027 \u2014 is for an extended hold, with inflation staying within the target range at 4.6% and growth slumping to 5.9%. If a ceasefire collapse intensifies the energy shock, we expect the RBI to double down on inflation control and rupee stability and deliver 50-bps of hikes starting in 4Q26.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Abhishek Gupta<\/p>\n
Central Bank of Brazil<\/p>\n
Current Selic target rate: 14.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 13.25%<\/p>\n
Brazil\u2019s central bank started a long-awaited easing cycle in March with a modest, quarter-point rate cut to 14.75%. The reduction came after both the local economy and inflation cooled.<\/p>\n
Still, the war in the Middle East has prompted Brazil economists to lift their inflation estimates further above the country\u2019s 3% target, complicating the outlook for future rate decisions. Central bankers led by Gabriel Galipolo have said their next steps will depend on incoming data, including information on how the conflict affects consumer prices over time.<\/p>\n
Separately, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has moved to limit consumers\u2019 pain at the pump ahead of October\u2019s elections by cutting fuel taxes, introducing a levy on crude exports and also pressuring for governors to lower state taxes.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cBarring an even steeper rise in oil prices, the BCB is all but certain to keep cutting rates this year \u2014 albeit more slowly than before the war. Governor Galipolo argues that ultra-tight policy buys time to assess the outlook calmly. But his repeated references to central banks\u2019 slow response to \u201ctransitory\u201d inflation in 2022 suggest less willingness to look through an oil price spike than the textbook implies. Fewer cuts abroad will also constrain easing at home. A successful, lasting ceasefire could push rates below 12% by year-end, while a sharper rise in oil prices could keep rates on hold.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Adriana Dupita<\/p>\n
Bank of Russia<\/p>\n
Current key rate: 15%
\nMedian economist forecast for end of 2026: 12.25%<\/p>\n
Elvira Nabiullina<\/p>\n
The Bank of Russia is set to cautiously cut its key rate over the coming months, while closely monitoring new risks stemming from the war in the Middle East. Annual inflation likely eased to about 5.8% in March, according to estimates, prompting the central bank to signal that further policy easing will be considered at upcoming meetings.<\/p>\n
Still, Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that uncertainty linked to external conditions has increased sharply. A prolonged confrontation of the US and Israel with Iran could fuel inflation in energy-importing economies and disrupt global supply chains, risks that could spill over into higher prices in Russia.<\/p>\n
South African Reserve Bank<\/p>\n
Current repo average rate: 6.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 6.75%<\/p>\n
Lesetja Kganyago<\/p>\n
The South African Reserve Bank has signaled that raising rates may be warranted if the Iran war drags on and oil prices stay high.<\/p>\n
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Policymakers held rates steady in late March but cautioned that inflation could rise to a short-term peak of 4.3%, putting a quarter-point rate hike on the table if the conflict lasts another two months and more if it goes longer.<\/p>\n
Governor Lesetja Kganyago said officials typically look through a temporary spike in oil prices, but \u201cwhat you can\u2019t do when you are faced with a shock is to sit and wait until inflation has risen and then only respond at that time.\u201d<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe SARB will likely respond to the surge in oil prices by holding rates at 6.75% through 2026. Moderately restrictive policy gives it more room to absorb the shock than in 2022, when policy was loose. The central bank is likely to act only if second-round effects emerge through broader pressures on transport and input costs.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Yvonne Mhango<\/p>\n
OTHER G-20 CENTRAL BANKS
\nBanco de Mexico<\/p>\n
Current overnight rate: 6.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 6.5%<\/p>\n
Mexico\u2019s central bank lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter-point in a split decision in March. Policymakers also opened the door to an additional borrowing cost cut in coming months, though without giving details on the timing.<\/p>\n
Banxico, as the central bank is known, has shown greater tolerance to recent price increases as it sees headline inflation converging to its 3% target in the third quarter of 2027. Officials say their current stance is adequate to face the challenges posed by a possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, ongoing weakness in the local economy should help keep inflation in check.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cWith rates already near neutral, above-target and rising inflation, along with elevated uncertainty, raise the bar for further easing, pointing to a pause and the risk of hikes if inflation worsens. Still, most policymakers retain a dovish bias, viewing current inflation pressures as transitory and expecting economic slack to drive disinflation over time. Our baseline is that rates stay on hold until the fourth quarter, when policymakers could begin gradual cuts into 2027, on the back of a wide negative output gap.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Felipe Hernandez<\/p>\n
Bank Indonesia<\/p>\n
Current 7-day reverse repo rate: 4.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 4.75%<\/p>\n
Perry Warjiyo<\/p>\n
Bank Indonesia may need to prematurely shelve its rate-cut ambitions as the Iran war fans inflation and heaps pressure on the beleaguered currency. Policymakers are expected to resist rate hikes amid concerns over the soft recovery of Southeast Asia\u2019s largest economy. How long they can hold out, though, will depend on the outlook for the Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n
While the Indonesian government has absorbed most of the oil shock, using its budget to keep the prices of subsidized fuel and electricity steady, its fiscal space is thin and fast running out. President Prabowo Subianto said he will consider lifting the legal limit on the budget deficit in case of a crisis, which could trigger more selloffs and risk a credit-rating downgrade. BI has tightened foreign-exchange rules to stem outflows and shore up the rupiah.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iran war takes rate cuts off the table with inflation set to breach the upper end of Bank Indonesia\u2019s 1.5%-3.5% target in the second quarter. The risk it pivots to rate hikes looks low, for now, with a ceasefire in place and less downward pressure on the rupiah. Soft domestic demand also reduces the chance of second round spillovers and should keep core inflation within the desired range.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Tamara Henderson<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Central Bank of Turkey\u00a0<\/p>\n
Current 1-week repo rate: 37%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 32%<\/p>\n
Turkey\u2019s rate cutting cycle came to an abrupt pause in March on the back of Iran war-driven price and currency pressures, with the central bank switching funding from its policy rate of 37% to the overnight lending rate of 40%. The central bank is set to prolong the pause \u2014 and even consider tightening further \u2014 should oil or currency driven volatility pose significant risk to disinflation efforts. While March inflation came in better than expectations, analysts say the April print might lead to significant pickup.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, a hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay, is set to retire just days before the April rates decision. It\u2019s unclear if his seat will be filled.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iran war is weighing on Turkey\u2019s inflation and rates outlook. Higher energy costs and disruptions to fertilizer trade will slow disinflation, limiting the central bank\u2019s easing space. We expect a pause in April, followed by a cautious easing cycle from June, taking the policy rate to 32% by year-end from 37%. The cease-fire has eased the near-term energy outlook, but uncertainty remains. Further escalation could weaken the lira and trigger temporary tightening to 40% before cuts resume.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Selva Bahar Baziki<\/p>\n
Turkey Eyes Slow-Paced Cuts
\nCentral Bank of Nigeria<\/p>\n
Current central bank rate: 26.5%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 23.5%<\/p>\n
Nigeria is Africa\u2019s largest oil producer but conflict in the Middle East has still caused domestic fuel prices to rise, casting doubt on the central bank\u2019s willingness to keep lowering borrowing costs when it meets in May.<\/p>\n
Officials cut their policy benchmark by 50 basis points in February after judging inflation was on a downward path. Analysts expected the easing campaign to continue, until hostilities clouded the outlook.<\/p>\n
The central bank is now seen putting policy on pause to weigh risks to inflation from the war, as well as political spending ahead of a general election in January. Its next scheduled rate announcement is not until May 20.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Central Bank of Nigeria will likely keep cutting rates from 26.5% through 2026, but at a slower pace. Unlike the last oil spike after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, policy is already restrictive, giving the central bank room to absorb the shock. Even in an adverse oil scenario \u2014 where prices rise to $170 in the second quarter before moderating \u2013 policymakers would not need to tighten as aggressively as in 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Yvonne Mhango<\/p>\n
Bank of Korea<\/p>\n
Current base rate: 2.5%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 2.5%<\/p>\n
Rhee Chang-yong<\/p>\n
The Bank of Korea kept rates on hold at its April meeting as policymakers weighed intensifying external risks from the Iran war. Surging oil prices are adding to inflationary pressure in an economy heavily reliant on energy imports, while growth faces downside risks despite resilient chip exports.<\/p>\n
The central bank has also warned of heightened volatility in currency and financial markets, alongside rising vulnerabilities in weaker sectors.<\/p>\n
Attention now turns to the leadership transition. Governor Rhee Chang Yong presided over his final meeting this week, with incoming chief Hyun Song Shin set to take over. Shin is expected to adopt a cautious but proactive stance, with markets eyeing a potential shift toward tightening if inflation risks build. How the BOK balances monetary policy with expected fiscal support will be a key theme this year.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe BOK\u2019s policy path is clear: tightening. The question is when. Markets expect rate hikes to begin in 3Q. Expectations for tightening have firmed on Iran-driven inflation risks and the nomination of Shin Hyun Song, a pragmatic hawk, to succeed Rhee Chang Yong. We think the BOK can wait until early 2027 unless higher oil prices unanchor inflation expectations. The reasons: soft domestic demand in a K-shaped recovery and the drag from higher oil prices.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Hyosung Kwon<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank of Australia<\/p>\n
Current cash rate target: 4.1%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 4.1%
\nMarket pricing: Money markets are wagering on two full quarter-point hikes this year with a 25% chance of a third.<\/p>\n
Michele Bullock<\/p>\n
The RBA, which became the first major central bank to begin tightening monetary policy this year, is widely seen to raise rates further as it seeks to rein in stubborn inflation.<\/p>\n
The RBA has already delivered back-to-back hikes since February, taking the cash rate to 4.1%. Money markets imply two more moves with the possibility of a third by December, taking the cash rate to 4.85% \u2014 the highest since late 2008.<\/p>\n
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While Australia\u2019s labor market remains near full employment, the export-driven economy faces mounting global headwinds from the war in Iran, raising concerns the RBA risks tightening into a slowdown.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe RBA may have already done enough to counter the Iran war inflation shock. Rate hikes in February and March will hit demand just as fuel import disruptions lift inflation and curb growth. A sharp confidence shock should limit the risk of sustained inflation. Markets are pricing further hikes, but we expect an extended pause as weaker real incomes and elevated uncertainty weigh on demand.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014James McIntyre<\/p>\n
Central Bank of Argentina<\/p>\n
Argentina\u2019s central bank now targets monetary aggregates<\/p>\n
Argentina hasn\u2019t set its policy rate since last June, when it switched to a monetary-targeting framework. Officials still intervene in the overnight repo rate, which remains negative in real terms to support economic activity after a year of uneven growth.<\/p>\n
Monthly inflation has come under increasing pressure since last May. It stood at a higher-than-expected 2.9% in February and will likely accelerate further on an energy shock from the Iran war. Argentina has delayed the start of a revamped inflation methodology and has yet to announce a new time-line for its introduction.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, President Javier Milei\u2019s government has bought more than $4 billion in reserves this year, though debt payments continue to drain those assets.<\/p>\n
G10 CURRENCIES AND EAST EUROPE ECONOMIES
\nSwiss National Bank<\/p>\n
Current policy rate: 0%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 0.25%
\nMarket pricing: Traders\u2019 wagers almost fully price a 25-basis-point increase by year-end.<\/p>\n
Martin Schlegel<\/p>\n
President Martin Schlegel and his colleagues won some reprieve as higher energy prices offset the strong franc weighing on inflation. If a recent uptick in prices is sustained, negative rates look off the table and the focus could even shift to hikes. Still, most economists don\u2019t expect such a move to materialize before 2028.<\/p>\n
Consumer prices are still keeping policymakers on alert: they are predicted to average at just 0.5% this year. Officials will also stay watchful on haven flows from geopolitical flareups after the SNB gave a rare unsolicited statement that their intervention readiness is elevated thanks to the Iran war.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cAfter months of deflation risks, we expect higher energy prices to modestly lift Swiss inflation to 0.5% in 2026 (vs. 0.2% before the war), as the strong franc continues to dampen imported prices despite effective FX intervention threats. The SNB remains focused on rebuilding policy space from its current zero rate policy while staying cautious on near-term price developments. We expect it to stay on hold until a first 25-basis-point hike in December.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Jean Dalbard<\/p>\n
Sveriges Riksbank<\/p>\n
Current policy rate: 1.75%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 1.75%<\/p>\n
Sweden\u2019s Riksbank continues to signal that it will most likely hold borrowing costs over the months ahead as it monitors the effect of the Iran war on price rises and economic growth. Policymakers held rates steady at meetings in January and March, as expected, and continued to signal a hike later in 2027.<\/p>\n
A surprise easing in core inflation to its slowest in more than four years in March has likely reduced pressure on the Riksbank to raise rates in the near term. Still, Governor Erik Thedeen has said that recent years have shown that it is \u201crisky\u201d for a central bank to assume that can \u201csee through supply shocks\u201d.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cSwedish inflation remains subdued despite higher oil prices, reinforcing a soft outlook as upcoming tax relief further dampen price pressures. We see CPIF inflation averaging 1.2% this year \u2014 well below the Riksbank\u2019s 2% target and supporting a prolonged hold at 1.75% from the central bank. Risks are two-sided but skew to the upside. There is room to look through short-lived price pressures, but a sustained rise in energy costs could open the door to tighter policy.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Selva Bahar Baziki<\/p>\n
Market Sees a 2026 Hike \u2014 Our Baseline Says Not
\nNorges Bank<\/p>\n
Current deposit rate: 4%
\nCentral bank guidance for end of 2026: 4.2%<\/p>\n
Norway\u2019s central bank signaled a reversal of earlier easing plans at its meeting last month and now projects at least one rate hike this year. The five-member rate-setting committee even discussed raising rates already in March after the war in the Middle East galvanized officials who were already worried about unrelenting domestic price pressure.<\/p>\n
The Norwegian government\u2019s electricity subsidies mean the consumers are relatively more immune to spiking energy prices than others in Europe, while rising oil and gas prices are set to bolster corporate investment.<\/p>\n
That means the central bank may need to do more to cool the economy as Governor Ida Wolden Bache and her peers expect inflation to slow close to their 2% target only by 2029 \u2014 for the first time since 2020.<\/p>\n
Reserve Bank of New Zealand<\/p>\n
Current cash rate: 2.25%
\nBloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2026: 2.25%
\nMarket pricing: Swaps imply 25-basis-point hikes in July and October with a 75% of one more by year-end.<\/p>\n
Anna Breman<\/p>\n
The RBNZ has held rates so far in 2026, indicating it is in no rush to tighten in face of the fuel price shock. Still, Governor Anna Breman said this month that policymakers will be vigilant to any generalized inflation pressure emerging from wage and price-setters, while also being aware that the nation\u2019s economic recovery still lacks momentum.<\/p>\n
The hawkish tone prompted markets to bring forward their pricing of rate hikes with a strong probability the tightening may start as soon as July.<\/p>\n
Breman, meanwhile, continues to push ahead with ways of improving the RBNZ\u2019s transparency by now holding news conferences after every rate decision, and committing to eight meetings a year, up from seven, from 2027.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cSubstantial spare capacity leaves the RBNZ facing a different challenge than during the 2022 energy-driven inflation surge. A weak recovery, a wide output gap and elevated unemployment limit the risk that the Iran war energy shock feeds into broader inflation. We expect the central bank to look through the inflation spike and maintain an expansionary stance in response to the growth hit through 2Q27.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014James McIntyre<\/p>\n
National Bank of Poland<\/p>\n
Current cash rate: 3.75%
\nMedian economist forecast for end of 2026: 3.5%<\/p>\n
Adam Glapinski<\/p>\n
The Polish central bank left the main rates unchange in April after a series of cuts that brought the borrowing costs to their lowest level in four years.<\/p>\n
The Iran war has led to a flare-up in inflation to its highest level since July, prompting the government to impose a cap to keep fuel prices in check and protect consumers. Despite the two-week truce in the fighting, Governor Adam Glapinski said rates should stay unchaged for the foreseeable future until the impact of the conflict on the economy becomes clearer.<\/p>\n
The shift coincides with the governor\u2019s renewed conflict with Premier Donald Tusk over the central bank\u2019s role in defense financing. Glapinski backed a controversial initiative from President Karol Nawrocki, Tusk\u2019s fierce opponent, to use gold reserves to fund defense. The prime minister has long criticized the governor\u2019s forays into politics and his alleged cosiness with the opposition, which backed him for the job.<\/p>\n
Czech National Bank<\/p>\n
Current cash rate: 3.5%
\nMedian economist forecast for end of 2026: 3.5%<\/p>\n
The Czech central bank signaled it won\u2019t rush to react to surging energy costs, saying the \u201cfavorable starting conditions\u201d with low inflation and robust growth provide time to analyze the impact on consumer prices and economic activity.<\/p>\n
While forward rates indicate bets on more than two quarter-point hikes within one year, central bankers agreed last month that it would be premature to consider raising rates now. Still, Governor Ales Michl said that it\u2019s necessary to keep a tight monetary stance and not underestimate the cost shock. \u201cHawkish policy\u201d is needed, and the board will be ready to tighten conditions if it sees risks of rising core inflation, Michl said at the March meeting.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
#Global #rate #path #veers #higher #wake #Trump #shock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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