<\/p>\n
John Swinney has a commanding lead (pic: DB Media Services)<\/p>\n
A new poll has confirmed the SNP\u2019s commanding lead in the Holyrood elections, with Reform UK moving ahead of Labour into second place.<\/p>\n
The YouGov survey predicts John Swinney\u2019s party will win 67 seats \u2014 two more than it requires for a majority \u2014 with Reform UK becoming the main opposition with 20. <\/p>\n
Reform had just one MSP in the last parliament, Graham Simpson, who defected from the Conservative party.<\/p>\n
If the poll is replicated on 7 May Labour would be reduced to 15 MSPs and Mr Swinney would use his majority to\u00a0demand a new referendum on independence. He has said this should take place in 2028, though he has not explained how he would achieve this as the UK government would reject such a request.<\/p>\n
The Scottish Tories, currently the main opposition, would suffer a bigger ignominy than Labour, seeing its representation fall to just seven seats, behind the Liberal Democrats on nine and the pro-independence Scottish Greens with an all-time high of 11.<\/p>\n
On some modelling, Labour could fail to win a single first-past-the-post constituency seat and would be reliant on the regional list for all of its Holyrood members.<\/p>\n
Anas Sarwar, who will launch his party\u2019s manifesto on Monday, continues to insist he can defy the polls \u2013 as he has on several occasions \u2013 and secure the keys to Bute House. <\/p>\n
However, pollsters say Labour would require a 14% swing from the SNP and this looks unlikely with less than a month to polling day. The most optimistic predictions suggest Labour would win 17 or 18 seats.<\/p>\n
An Ipsos poll earlier in the week suggested Dame Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour\u2019s deputy leader, will lose the Dumbarton constituency, confirmed by the YouGov poll. She has held the seat since the resumption of the Scottish Parliament in 1999.<\/p>\n
Jackie Baillie could lose her seat (pic: DB Media Services)<\/p>\n
One potential setback for the SNP is the possibility of former minister Angus Robertson losing his Edinburgh Central seat to ex-Greens co-leader Lorna Slater in what would be the party\u2019s first constituency success.<\/p>\n
Mr Swinney has been able to surge ahead in the polls despite serious failings by his government, and the Peter Murrell scandal.<\/p>\n
The poll appears to confirm that three issues are driving voters: a desire for independence, anger at Sir Keir Starmer\u2019s UK\u00a0government and the cost of living.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The SNP is also benefiting from the emergence of Reform which has split the unionist vote by taking support from the Conservatives and Labour.<\/p>\n
The Greens have been polling strongly, but suggestions they will form the main Opposition are wide of the mark as the party is only standing in a handful of constituencies. Its supporters are thought likely to vote SNP rather than for other parties.<\/p>\n
YouGov polled 3,925 Scottish voters between\u00a023 March and\u00a08 April.<\/p>\n
\t #SNP #majority #Reform #rises #Daily #Business<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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