{"id":3646,"date":"2026-04-11T20:25:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T20:25:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=3646"},"modified":"2026-04-11T20:25:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T20:25:27","slug":"the-petrodollar-faces-increased-risk-but-a-petroyuan-is-far-fetched-strategist-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=3646","title":{"rendered":"The petrodollar faces increased risk, but a petroyuan is ‘far-fetched,’ strategist says"},"content":{"rendered":"

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President Donald Trump\u2019s war on Iran has raised doubts about America\u2019s superpower status and currency dominance as the Strait of Hormuz remains under Tehran\u2019s control.<\/p>\n

But Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, isn\u2019t buying predictions about a U.S. decline: \u201cDon\u2019t Believe The Hype (Yet).\u201d<\/p>\n

In a note on Friday, he acknowledged that if Iran\u2019s regime is left standing while retaining some control over the strait, it would represent a \u201cstrategic setback\u201d for the U.S. and humiliation for Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bigger question is whether this marks the end of American superpower status, dollar dominance, and the petrodollar. More possible if Iran ends up with control of the SoH, but we would not bet on it,\u201d Alamariu added.<\/p>\n

He also shot down comparisons to the Suez Crisis in 1956, when the U.S. pressured Britain and France to abandon their attempt to regain control of the Suez Canal, signaling the end of their reign as great powers.<\/p>\n

Alamariu pointed out that the two European countries had effectively lost their empires by then after being bankrupted by World War II. \u201cThe U.S. does not resemble that.\u201d<\/p>\n

In addition, the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War also gave rise to declarations of American decline, but it was instead the Soviet Union that ended up collapsing, he noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cSimilarly, the petrodollar faces some increased risk, but the GCC has more reason than ever to keep ties with Washington close, given Beijing\u2019s perceived closeness to Iran,\u201d Alamariu wrote, referring to the Gulf Cooperation Council. \u201cThe idea of a petroyuan or petroeuro replacement remains far-fetched.\u201d<\/p>\n

For now, Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz, selectively allowing a trickle of ships through in exchange for payments in yuan or cryptocurrency, the U.S. Navy is preparing to clear mines from the narrow waterway.<\/p>\n

Wall Street analysts have highlighted that dollar dominance is anchored by the greenback\u2019s use as the standard currency in the global oil trade. <\/p>\n

But the yuan\u2019s ascendence during the Iran war could establish a petroyuan as the U.S. security shield and guarantee of free navigation weaken amid drone attacks that have evaded American air defenses.<\/p>\n

For his part, Alamariu is also skeptical about Iran\u2019s attempt to de-dollarize the oil trade with its current toll booth arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf anything, the GCC appears poised to resist Iran (with U.S. help) and accelerate bypass pipeline construction, should Iran retain control of the SoH,\u201d he said. \u201cLastly, even Iran\u2019s proposals for yuan or crypto-denominated Strait tolls are not meaningfully dollar-bearish; most stablecoins are effectively dollar-denominated instruments.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even if the petrodollar weakens, dollar dominance still rests on other factors that other currencies can\u2019t match, according to Paul Blustein, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<\/p>\n

Those include the depth, breadth, and liquidity of U.S. financial markets as well as the freedom to move money across U.S. borders virtually unimpeded, he wrote in a Fortune op-ed last month.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt accounts for well over half of foreign currency reserves held by central banks, and a similar share of export invoices for cross-border trade, as well as international bank loans and bond issuance,\u201d Blustein added. \u201cNetwork effects entrench its status; everybody has an incentive to use the dollar because so many others do.\u201d<\/p>\n

#petrodollar #faces #increased #risk #petroyuan #farfetched #strategist<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump\u2019s war on Iran has raised doubts about America\u2019s superpower status and currency…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[245],"tags":[2638,712,8095,8094,376,303,4450,6008,749,3879,6368],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3646"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3646"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3646\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}