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Markets opened down nearly 1% across the indexes on Monday, but news-aggregating accounts online and on social media picked up a report by New York Post Pentagon reporter Caitlin Doornbos. At 7:46 a.m. Monday, Doornbos had posted on X that Iranian officials were still considering a U.S. proposal to end the war, \u201ccentering around uranium enrichment.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cOne thing affecting why Iran couldn\u2019t make a deal while U.S. was in Islamabad \u2026 Iranians could not call their final decision-maker back in Tehran due to security risks,\u201d she wrote, citing a \u201cPakistani analyst.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Soon, the headline traveled. Brent crude began dropping steeply, down roughly 4% to about $4.50 a barrel, roundtripping hundreds of millions of dollars notionally across the front-month contract. Doornbos received hundreds of replies to her post, calling her a liar, a market-manipulator and a pawn of the Trump regime.<\/p>\n
By 11 a.m., she issued another post\u2014\u201dshe had a responsibility to clarify\u201d\u2014that her original post contained no news, at all. She was just reiterating what was known; that discussions were centered on the nuclear deal, which Vice President JD Vance had already said, and that theoretically Iranians could accept.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis took off unnecessarily,\u201d Doornbos wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Brent crude began climbing again, hitting $103 briefly before again descending on some more typical jawboning news; Trump saying that he\u2019d been called by the \u201cright people\u201d in Iran, that they truly want a deal, etc. Ultimately, the day ended on a high: The S&P 500 had risen 1.02% to 6,886.24, wiping out every single day of losses since the beginning of the Iran war on Feb. 28. The Nasdaq added 1.23%; the Dow tacked on 301 points after being down more than 400 earlier in the session.<\/p>\n
Now, most readers know very well that the war has not ended. In fact, talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend after 21 hours of seemingly genuine effort from both U.S. and Iranian counterparts. President Trump took the risk of enacting a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports at 10 a.m, potentially even stoking another hot war that could drag troops back into conflict. He had spent the afternoon threatening on Truth Social to \u201cELIMINATE\u201d any Iranian ships that approached the blockade. So why, why did markets rally on a short X post from a New York Post reporter? Why would they rally to another high on information from Trump, an obviously biased party? Surely they must imagine that the probability the conflict escalates is higher than the probability it ends tomorrow?\u00a0<\/p>\n
The answer is that Wall Street has been Pavlov-dogged, over 14 months and during at least nine separate de-escalations, to buy the dip on every Trump-era escalation. According to a MarketWatch tally, nine of the 10 best days for the S&P 500 since the beginning of Trump\u2019s second term have been driven by signs of de-escalation\u2014on tariffs or on Iran. A trader who caught only those 10 sessions would be sitting on a 35% compound return, against roughly 13% for the index over the same period.<\/p>\n
Wall Street calls it the TACO trade\u2014\u201cTrump always chickens out,\u201d coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong after Trump abruptly paused his \u201cliberation day\u201d tariffs in April 2025. But what started as a joke has become some hard serious liquidity. Morgan Stanley\u2019s Mike Wilson told clients in a Sunday note that the Iran selloff was a correction inside an ongoing bull market, with earnings accelerating into the oil shock rather than rolling over. The median S&P 500 company is now growing earnings per share at a double-digit pace\u2014the fastest since 2021. \u201cThe market trades in advance of the headlines,\u201d Wilson wrote. \u201cInvestors should do the same.\u201d<\/p>\n
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#Wall #Street #biggest #winner #Iran #warand #turned #positive #year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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