<\/p>\n
The Great U.S. blockade of shipping in and out of Iran is ending its first day, and you would be correct if you’re seeing little effect on your daily life. <\/p>\n
That’s neither good news nor bad news. It was only the first day. <\/p>\n
The drama still lies ahead.<\/p>\n
If you got gason April 13, your fill-up might have cost you $4.10 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.com. That is a couple cents more than you paid on, say, April 12.<\/p>\n
It’s 38% more than you might have paid on Feb. 27, the day before the United States and Israel jointly launched air and missile attacks on Iran.<\/p>\n
Light sweet crude, the benchmark U.S. crude, was trading at $96.47 per barrel late on April 13. That works out to about $2.30 per gallon. That means the refiners, marketers, and retailers add about $1.74 to the price of gas.<\/p>\n
So, if crude oil drops to $96 and all the additional costs remain steady, the price of your gasoline should be around $4.03 a gallon. That would save you about 7 cents a gallon. Or 75 cents on a 10-gallon fill-up.<\/p>\n
That’s in theory \u2014 and only in theory.<\/p>\n
You might be tempted to say, “Big whoop.” But be happy for all small breaks.<\/p>\n
President Trump’s Iran update cheered oil investors<\/p>\n
You got a break during that first day of the blockade. When President Donald Trump confirmed the blockade on Sunday, crude oil jumped to as high as $105.63 a barrel. <\/p>\n
The price fell back to a close of $99.08 as the president claimed Iranians have contacted the White House to say they want “very badly” to negotiate a deal to end the conflict.<\/p>\n
Stocks, especially technology stocks, rallied. Energy stocks were mostly flat. Exxon Mobil was up slightly. Chevron rose 1.7%.<\/p>\n
But Iran has not publicly said they really want a deal.<\/p>\n
The unknown unknowns on gas prices<\/p>\n
Given this uncertainty, no one knows where oil prices and gasoline prices are headed.<\/p>\n
“There’s no predicting where prices will be in a week, let alone six months,” said GasBuddy Head of Petroleum Analysis Patrick DeHaan in an email. “It could be $3 in 6 months or $6 in 3 months.”<\/p>\n
More Oil and Gas:<\/p>\n
The world\u2019s biggest gas field matters just as much as oil right nowGoldman Sachs reveals top oil stocks to buy for 2026U.S. economy will show resilience, despite rising oil prices<\/p>\n
GasBuddy started 2026 forecasting that the average price of gasoline in the United States would fall to $2.97 per gallon from a 2025 average price of $3.102.<\/p>\n
The forecast was qualified with warnings that prices could be subject to “familiar bouts of volatility tied to seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, hurricane season and ongoing geopolitical risks.”<\/p>\n
As we know now, “ongoing geopolitical risks” are alive and well. <\/p>\n
Waiting for Iran<\/p>\n
The blockade that President Trump declared over the weekend came after peace talks ended on Saturday, April 11. The talks came only a few days after he pulled back on a threat to destroy all of Iran’s infrastructure.<\/p>\n
The blockade is supposed to apply only to cargoes leaving from \u2014 or arriving at \u2014 ports big and small on the Iranian side of the Persian Gulf. <\/p>\n
The U.S. Navy has been ordered to stop ships from leaving and stop ships from arriving at Iranian ports. The only aid that will be allowed to go through is verified humanitarian aid. The ships will be inspected and crews questioned and detained if the answers don’t work, a USA Today report said. <\/p>\n
The blockade also means Iran can’t impose tolls to guarantee passage through the Strait. The tolls were reported to be as much as $2 million on a giant oil tanker \u2014 payable in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.<\/p>\n
And Iran will struggle to sell and ship its oil to its key customers across Asia, especially China.<\/p>\n
A tanker unloads liquid petroleum gas in Mumbai, India.<\/p>\n
Indranil Aditya/Getty/Images<\/p>\n
Another Strait risk emerges<\/p>\n
But there is a threat that, so far, has not worked its way into the public domain. Iran could convince its Houthi allies in Yemen to block the Bab al-Mandeb\u00a0Strait at the south end of the Red Sea.<\/p>\n
The loser in that scenario: Saudi Arabia, which has an oil-exporting port on the Red Sea. That business would be crippled if the Bab al-Mandeb\u00a0Strait were closed.<\/p>\n
Maybe cooler heads will prevail and real talks will develop.<\/p>\n
Related: Exxon Mobil’s future rests on massive play (it isn’t Venezuela)<\/p>\n
#Big #risks #hover #Strait #Hormuz #blockade<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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