<\/p>\n
Donald Trump\u2019s bid to block Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz chokes a key Chinese energy supply and risks a showdown with Xi Jinping a month before the two leaders are set to meet in Beijing.<\/p>\n
Xi broke his near seven-week silence over the Iran war on Tuesday, warning the world order is \u201ccrumbling into disarray,\u201d while pledging to play a \u201cconstructive role\u201d in the Middle East. Ramping up its own rhetoric, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing blasted the US president\u2019s naval blockade imposed this week as \u201cdangerous and irresponsible.\u201d<\/p>\n
Read: US and Iran wrangle over talks<\/p>\n
The stronger language out of Beijing underscores how Trump\u2019s war in the Middle East is testing a fragile detente between the world\u2019s biggest economies. US threats to intercept, divert or capture ships violating its blockade risks a confrontation between Chinese aligned vessels and American Navy ships, potentially putting Beijing in a difficult spot even if it wants to avoid directly challenging the blockade.<\/p>\n
The fate of one such vessel, a US-sanctioned tanker linked to China but unaffiliated with the government, showed the potential risks of miscalculation. That ship \u2014 the Rich Starry \u2014 sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday before appearing to U-turn as it entered the Gulf of Oman, tracking data show.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the US seeks to use this badly bungled war to harm China\u2019s interests, I believe China has many cards to play that would ensure the US gains far less than it loses,\u201d Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of China\u2019s nationalist tabloid Global Times, wrote on Monday in a blog post.<\/p>\n
Read: Trump leaves allies and foes guessing on endgame for Iran<\/p>\n
So far, there\u2019s no sign that Trump\u2019s visit to Beijing planned for mid-May will be delayed. On Tuesday, he met with David Perdue, the US ambassador to China, to prepare for the trip, which would be the first to the nation by a US president since he last visited in 2017.<\/p>\n
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But the mood is darkening. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has blasted China as an unreliable partner to the world by \u201choarding\u201d oil, while US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week warned that Beijing\u2019s ties with Iran were complicating the relationship.<\/p>\n
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday that two nations have \u201cmaintained communications\u201d over Trump\u2019s visit.<\/p>\n
Trump has also threatened 50% tariffs on countries arming Tehran, after reports China was planning to give its longtime diplomatic friend Iran anti-missile weapons \u2014 claims Beijing called a \u201csmear\u201d campaign. While China generally avoids supplying weapons to overseas wars, it has provided Russia with dual-use components.<\/p>\n
Read: Trump ditches appeal for help in Iran war, slamming allies<\/p>\n
Any decision to impose tariffs or otherwise hurt China\u2019s interests threatens to upend a one-year truce \u2014 a move that would almost certainly prompt China to again retaliate by cutting off rare earths. Beijing controls around 90% of permanent magnets made with the minerals crucial to American manufacturing. Last year, China imposed sweeping exports on those metals to counter Trump\u2019s tariffs and could quickly tighten restrictions.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
As the conflict drags, it\u2019s also possible Trump hopes hitting China\u2019s oil imports will encourage Beijing to pressure Tehran to come to the table, said Bloomberg Economic\u2019s Jennifer Welch, after peace talks over the weekend in Pakistan ended in failure. The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of negotiations before an April 7 ceasefire expires.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe risk, if that is Trump\u2019s plan, is that China cushions higher oil costs at home, and strikes back with its own sanctions,\u201d added Welch. China could also hit back by restricting soy bean purchases, broad imports of which fell to a one-year low in the month after the war began.<\/p>\n
But for some in Beijing, Trump\u2019s latest moves to pressure China suggest he\u2019s boxed in by the war in Iran.<\/p>\n
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Read: Trump gets chilly response from allies over demand on Hormuz<\/p>\n
\u201cThe US is passing the bucks onto China as it is incapable of reopening the Strait of Hormuz,\u201d said Wang Yiwei, a former Chinese diplomat and director of Renmin University\u2019s Institute of International Affairs. \u201cWhen Washington can\u2019t win the war with Iran, it blames Beijing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Diplomatic flurry<\/p>\n
China\u2019s leader is welcoming a host of dignitaries in Beijing this week, as he portrays China as a force for stability to countries around the world responding to an energy crisis.<\/p>\n
Xi pledged to play a \u201cconstructive role\u201d in the Middle East during a Tuesday meeting with Abu Dhabi\u2019s Crown Prince \u00a0\u2014 widely seen as the next leader of the United Arab Emirates. He also sat down with Russia\u2019s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov and Vietnamese chief To Lam on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
While China has emerged as among the most resilient Asian economies, thanks to its vast oil reserves and a robust renewable energy sector, the US blockade of Hormuz has broader implications about freedom of navigation.<\/p>\n
\u201cChina has long feared that its access to energy might be blocked at the Strait of Malacca, especially by the US in the context of a war,\u201d said Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.<\/p>\n
Indonesia\u2019s Prabowo Subianto last week touted his country\u2019s leverage over that shipping artery, highlighting in a speech that approximately 70% of East Asia\u2019s energy and trade passes through Indonesian waters. \u201cDo we even realize how important Indonesia is?\u201d he asked.<\/p>\n
Read: Trump threatens Xi summit delay if China doesn\u2019t help in Hormuz<\/p>\n
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The free passage of vessels through choke points like Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca is protected under principles laid out in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. While the US never ratified the treaty, it played a key role in the document\u2019s drafting and its almost 300-ship navy has served as chief enforcer of the rules.<\/p>\n
One Chinese scholar warned of dangerous precedents being set in global shipping, saying even Iran\u2019s use of the yuan for Hormuz toll payments shouldn\u2019t be seen as a win for China, given the risk of secondary sanctions. The US Treasury Department warned on Tuesday that it\u2019s ready to take actions against foreign financial institutions that support Iran.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom the perspective of international law and the grand narrative of great power competition, China\u2019s optimal strategy in the Hormuz crisis is by no means to maximize local renminbi settlement gains,\u201d Ye Yan, a scholar on international law at Southwest University of Political Science and Law, wrote in a journal article.<\/p>\n
With weeks to go until Trump\u2019s trip to Beijing, much uncertainty remains over what will be on the agenda \u2014 and how the world will look.<\/p>\n
Trump already delayed his meeting to game the Iran war, said Renmin University\u2019s Wang.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll these gambits are aimed at serving his negotiations,\u201d added Wang. \u201cTrump had hoped to visit China as a winner of the war, but now the war has become his Waterloo.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n
#Trump #Hormuz #blockade #risks #showdown #China #summit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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