<\/p>\n
You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.<\/p>\n
SIMON BROWN: I\u2019m chatting now with Viv Govender of Rand Swiss. Viv, always appreciate the time. You and I haven\u2019t chatted AI in far too long. I want to touch on models first. We\u2019ve got the Chat-GPT5.4, Nano Banana\u00a02 from Gemini, which is Alphabet. We\u2019ve got the Anthropic Claude Opus 4.6.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m reminded of a conversation maybe two years ago where we were wondering how good these models would get. I would wager that they\u2019ve become really good. Yes, there are still flaws, they still make stuff up, but by and large we are seeing massive improvements.<\/p>\n
Read: What AI can do (and what it can\u2019t)
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VIV GOVENDER: Yes, most certainly. Not to insult anybody out there, but if you are in the position that the models have kind of stalled, it\u2019s more a case of the capacity, rather, to determine how good the models are.<\/p>\n
That seems to be the case because we\u2019ve had cases in which people like mathematicians have come out and \u2026 started to use\u00a0 AI to aid them in discovering new mathematics, new physics, et cetera.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ve seen the emergence of \u2026 which apparently, has this, levels like Opus \u2026 above Opus which apparently is too powerful to even be released to the public because it can look at any piece of software and determine new hacks, new what they call \u2018exploits\u2019 to the software.<\/p>\n
Read: Alibaba, Tencent shares lose $66bn as AI vision falls flat
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And then it can even take one piece of software, find multiple exploits. Each of them may not be on its own powerful, but they combine and make like a combo punch that can give you access to certain sensitive data or allow you to do things that you are not supposed to do, et cetera. That\u2019s just basically in the last four weeks.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re still waiting for \u2026 spun from Gemini OpenAI the new Gemini, the new Grok to come out. And quite frankly, the progress of these is as fast as has been predicted, if not slightly faster.<\/p>\n
People who think it has hit a wall or any kind of barrier \u2013 that\u2019s not true. In fact, it\u2019s getting to a point where we just don\u2019t have the tests anymore to determine how good these things are.<\/p>\n
Read: Meet the new AI coworker who won\u2019t stop snitching to your boss
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SIMON BROWN: That\u2019s actually a great point, and I will attest. Opus 4.6 has just boggled my brain. And to be clear, I was quite happy with my AI before, but the new one was really great. To be clear, I\u2019m using Anthropic. They currently get my $20 a month. I\u2019m using Opus\u00a04.6. Their problem is frankly capacity.<\/p>\n
They don\u2019t have enough compute power, and I can see it in my [computer] throttling.<\/p>\n
Even just two months ago, I was running wild with Claude and now there are restrictions left, right and centre. This is proving a giant challenge.<\/p>\n
VIV GOVENDER: Yes. Again, your $20 a month is not where you\u2019re making their money.<\/p>\n
Simon Brown: No, no, no.<\/p>\n
VIV GOVENDER: Because what\u2019s happened is with the emergence, especially of things like the really deep thought, the recursive kind of thought this thing goes through, as well as agents. Genesis one \u2026 \u00a0at least [with] the same amount of money you\u2019re spending on an engineer are these tokens, you pretty much are wasting the engineer.<\/p>\n
Read: Winklevoss twins attempt pivot after Gemini loses money and employees<\/p>\n
We talked about people spending thousands of dollars a day on these tokens. Some of the bigger companies out there [spend] hundreds of millions of dollars a year and, in fact, at current projections I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if we approach $80-100\u00a0billion in recurring revenue for Anthropic by the end of this year. Okay, it\u2019s about $30\u00a0billion at the moment.<\/p>\n
This is the fastest growth we\u2019ve ever seen in a company of this size. And with Anthropic, the thing is that they don\u2019t have the money that OpenAI does; they \u00a0don\u2019t have the money Gemini does. They have some special source.<\/p>\n
Whether or not it\u2019s their philosophy of safety first, their principal philosophy, which attracts more workers to come and work for them, we\u2019ve seen, for instance with Elon Musk, Grok\u2026 his philosophy. He has \u00a0\u2026 \u00a0created by his workers. And therefore you\u2019ve seen basically every single founder of Grok leave. The same thing with OpenAI. People have left that.<\/p>\n
Read: OpenAI doubles annualised revenue to $3.4bn, The Information reports
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Musk sues Apple, OpenAI, saying they hurt AI competition<\/p>\n
But Anthropic seems to be able to retain workers, and therefore that\u2019s why they\u2019re doing so well with much, much less money \u2026 the guys out there.<\/p>\n
But the way the system is working at the moment is there\u2019s actually an interesting podcast by a guy called Rakesh Patel, in which he was basically questioning Diya Modi \u2013 this was a couple of months ago \u2013 and he said, \u2018Isn\u2019t it obvious that you\u2019ve underspent on computer?\u2019 Diya Modi was saying, \u2018Yes, but if I overspend, it\u2019s much, much worse. It\u2019s like basically, I\u2019ll go bankrupt.\u2019 \u2026 everything.<\/p>\n
But in this case, it\u2019s definitely underspent and it just means that the chip companies out there, the memory companies \u2013 even though they\u2019ve been hurt by some recent developments by Google \u2013 are probably still a pretty good bet at the moment.<\/p>\n
SIMON BROWN: I take your point on that. The data out overnight is that Anthropic is doing a raise, and it looks like they\u2019re going to clock the $800 billion valuation \u2013 which, as you say, is insane fast growth.<\/p>\n
Nvidia \u2013 year to date there\u2019s been a war and the like. Nvidia is up some 5%; it is doing fine. Meta, although they\u2019re not really chips, \u00a0have AI. They are flat for the year. Alphabet, Amazon are both in the chip game. Aside from other businesses, the Mag Seven, apart from Microsoft and Tesla, are actually doing quite fine over the course of the year, notwithstanding that we\u2019ve had, what, six weeks of war in Iran.<\/p>\n
Read\/Listen: Tencent seizes momentum in China\u2019s AI race against Alibaba
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AI frenzy draws hordes to private markets in industry gold rush<\/p>\n
VIV GOVENDER: And Tesla is up 5% today. I just looked at it. And Microsoft \u2013 apparently, what\u2019s hurting them is that they basically kind of chickened out on the AI spend. That\u2019s probably what they did \u2013 they pulled back and that was a mistake.<\/p>\n
They were aggressive at the start, but they chickened out and they probably saw a bit of a wobble in Open AI\u2019s prospects.<\/p>\n
And we saw some of the big cloud companies, for instance, under pressure because what happened there was we saw that OpenAI may not have the money. And therefore people were thinking maybe these cloud companies are not going to get the money coming through.<\/p>\n
But it has seemed that\u2019s not the case. Part of it is, like I said, the \u2026 stuff has come out in the last, say, six months or so. Part of it has been the fact that the models are continuing to get better and better, the applications are getting better and better, and so people are still willing to spend the money.<\/p>\n
Read: Tesla valuation looks unsustainable to Wall Street analysts
Microsoft signs $9.7bn AI cloud deal with IREN<\/p>\n
But yes, I think Microsoft \u2013 the issue there was they were not as aggressive in AI and that\u2019s what hurt them. It\u2019s kind of the Apple situation.<\/p>\n
SIMON BROWN: Yes, absolutely. And in fact, they proudly said a year ago or so, some time last year, that they were pulling back on compute. That is absolutely hurting them.<\/p>\n
Viv Govender, Rand Swiss, as always, I appreciate the time.<\/p>\n
Listen to the full MoneywebNOW podcast every weekday morning here.<\/p>\n
#advancements #artificial #intelligence #models<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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