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Activist investor Bill Ackman has his sights set on Universal Music Group, and he\u2019s launched a complex $64 billion proposal for the label behind Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, Paul McCartney and a long list of other superstars.\u00a0<\/p>\n
To get his hands on the prize though, Ackman will first have to contend with another big personality: Vincent Bollor\u00e9, the 74-year-old secretive French billionaire who controls 28% of Universal through a complex web of holdings.<\/p>\n
Known as the \u201cFrench Murdoch\u201d for building a $14 billion, right-leaning media empire stacked with family members and loyalists, Bollor\u00e9 is a shrewd businessperson whose ascent to the top tiers of power is an object of fascination and awe in France and throughout Europe.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cNine times out of 10 when people are speculating about what Bollor\u00e9 will do, they get it wrong,\u201d said Nicolas Marmurek, a London-based analyst who specializes in M&A.<\/p>\n
Bollor\u00e9\u2019s stake in Universal Music Group (UMG), which effectively gives him veto power over any deal, sets the stage for a potentially epic showdown between two of the most powerful figures in the business world. Ackman is famous for fighting his way through deals, launching aggressive campaigns that invest in companies and force management to adopt measures like cutting costs or spinning off assets. Past targets have included Wendy\u2019s and Canadian Pacific Railway but he\u2019s softened his approach in recent years, and he complimented UMG\u2019s management when he launched his bid to merge and relist the company in the U.S.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Adrian Edwards\/GC Images<\/p>\n
In bidding to revamp UMG, which owns 30% of the world\u2019s recorded music, Ackman is testing a new playbook. Rather than influencing affairs through pressure tactics Pershing intends to lead a structural recapitalization, buying more shares, putting allies on the board, and re-listing the company in New York while existing management operates the company. It\u2019s all part of Ackman\u2019s broader vision of transforming Pershing into a diversified holding company in the image of Warren Buffett\u2019s Berkshire Hathaway.<\/p>\n
That makes winning over the unpredictable Bollor\u00e9 mission critical for Ackman.<\/p>\n
\u201cWithout Bollor\u00e9, we don\u2019t have a transaction,\u201d Ackman told investors on April 7 when he unveiled the details of his proposal. Ackman said his \u201cfirst phone call\u201d the day before announcing the deal, was to Bollor\u00e9 Group, and he reportedly spoke with current chairman and CEO Cyrille Bollor\u00e9, Vincent Bollor\u00e9\u2019s 40-year-old son. Ackman said he gave the younger Bollor\u00e9\u00a0 a \u201chigh-level summary of the transaction.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd I guess the words I got back were, \u2018These are music to my ears,\u2019\u201d Ackman said. \u201cThey are, I would say, intrigued,\u201d he added later. \u201cBut of course, the devil\u2019s in the details.\u201d<\/p>\n
A complex deal and a long tail<\/p>\n
Ackman\u2019s proposed deal is structured as a merger between UMG and a Pershing Square special-purpose acquisition rights company. Pershing Square\u2019s cash commitment is \u20ac2.5 billion euro, and a combination of new debt, cash on UMG\u2019s balance sheet, and asset sales will be used to finance the rest of the transaction. But the deal is highly complex and could end up being consummated in several different ways depending on whether UMG shareholders elect to swap their shares for cash or stock in the new entity, or a combination.<\/p>\n
If shareholders approve the deal, the new U.S.-listed entity would have a $64 billion equity value once the finances are completed, plus $5.8 billion in new debt on UMG\u2019s balance sheet. Artists would also get what Ackman described as \u201ca nice \u20ac750 million euro check\u201d which would come from the sale of UMG\u2019s stake in Spotify.<\/p>\n
Yuriko Nakao\/Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/p>\n
Universal\u2019s board confirmed the proposal the same day as Ackman\u2019s unveiling, describing it as \u201cunsolicited and non-binding.\u201d The UMG board said directors would review it \u201cin accordance with fiduciary duties\u201d and said it had \u201ccomplete confidence in UMG\u2019s strategy and the leadership of Sir Lucian Grainge.\u201d Grainge has been CEO since 2011, when he led UMG\u2019s acquisition of EMI\u2019s recorded-music catalogue.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ackman also pitched refreshing UMG\u2019s board with two new members and naming Hollywood giant and Creative Artists Agency co-founder Michael Ovitz as chair. Ovitz has been friends with UMG CEO Grainge for four decades, Ackman has told investors (Ackman also noted that he\u2019s been friends with Ovitz for 31 years).\u00a0<\/p>\n
The appeal of UMG for Ackman is in the shift the music industry has undergone throughout much of the past decade. As streaming has transformed the way consumers listen to music, the value of deep catalogs like Universal\u2019s\u2014which includes Billie Eilish, Drake, and Kendrick Lamar\u2014has increased and changed the economics.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe tail has become fatter and fatter and fatter,\u201d said Tom Toumazis, MBE and global senior advisor at AlixPartners, describing music that\u2019s more than 10 years old but continues to generate revenue. \u201cA teenager running up that hill with Kate Bush\u201d today is discovering music that didn\u2019t exist a generation ago, he said, referring to the massive resurgence of Bush\u2019s 1985 song \u201cRunning up That Hill\u201d following its use in the Netflix show Stranger Things. Every major label has a Kate Bush in its catalogue, he said. The result, said Toumazis, \u201cis an intrinsic reset over a decade that says, this music just keeps on going, and keeps on going, and keeps on going.\u201d<\/p>\n
The trend caught Ackman\u2019s eye a few years ago. Pershing previously acquired a 10% stake in UMG in 2021 around the time the label was spun out of French conglomerate Vivendi SE. But Pershing gradually pared its position to 4.5%, and last year, Ackman left UMG\u2019s board as his efforts to convince UMG to list its shares in New York hit a wall. The current deal would see that stake grow to 11.7%.<\/p>\n
Because of its Dutch listing, UMG has never had the dedicated analyst coverage that U.S.-listed rival Warner Music Group has and the stock is out-of-bounds for investors with mandates that don\u2019t allow investments in non-U.S. stock, Ackman said in his pitch to UMG. The Dutch listing also keeps UMG outside of major U.S. index funds that buy S&P 500 stocks. He said relisting the company on the New York Stock Exchange would address some of those issues.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The new structure would generate about $3 billion in incremental cash for Bollor\u00e9 Group, and the family would retain its UMG stake. According to Ackman, the deal also addresses what he said is part of the reason behind UMG\u2019s recent 39% stock drop from its peak two years ago: The market was uncertain about what the Bollor\u00e9 family was planning to do with their stake.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cA very important catalyst was Cyrille Bollor\u00e9, the representative from Bollor\u00e9 Group, surprised the market by resigning from the Universal board,\u201d Ackman told investors in a call this month. \u201cThat sort of put in question their intentions with respect to whether they were going to hold their stake.\u201d<\/p>\n
The \u2018little prince of cash flow\u2019<\/p>\n
Fred TANNEAU \/ AFP) (Photo by FRED TANNEAU\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
While much of Ackman\u2019s proposal makes plenty of sense\u2014listing UMG in the U.S., getting passive investment from index fund holders, opening the stock up to investors who can only invest in U.S.-listed entities, no one can predict how Vincent Bollor\u00e9 will respond, said Marmurek, the M&A analyst. Bollor\u00e9 is one of the savviest and most secretive investors in France, and trying to gauge how he\u2019ll react is pure speculation, Marmurek said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s building a legacy and built a crazy amount of wealth over the space of one generation\u2014he wants that wealth protected,\u201d he said. \u201cTrying to second guess Bollor\u00e9 is very dangerous.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bollor\u00e9 earned his reputation as an operator after he took over an almost-bankrupt paper mill in the north of France in 1981 at age 29 and turned it into a diversified industrial group including logistics, batteries, ports, and African shipping. The cornerstone of his style as a corporate raider is to take a small stake in an undervalued business and then grind his way to having more and more control.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Bollor\u00e9\u2019s stake in Vivendi, for instance, dates back to 2012 when he picked up a 1.3% stake in the media giant when it bought two of his television stations for less than 500 million Euros. He gradually upped his stake by buying Vivendi shares on the open market, going to 5% in 2012 and 14% in 2015, all the while reaping ever larger dividend payments from Vivendi, according to Le Monde. The French newspaper has given him various nicknames during the past four decades, tracing the arc of his public reputation. In 1988, the paper called him \u201cthe little prince of cash flow.\u201d A decade later he was dubbed \u201cthe blond angel.\u201d In 2013, the paper called him \u201ca predator.\u201d<\/p>\n
Like News Corp founder Rupert Murdoch, Bollor\u00e9 has infused his collection of media properties with right-leaning, and sometimes controversial, voices. And like Murdoch\u2019s, the Bollor\u00e9 empire is run like a dynasty. In 2022, Vincent Bollor\u00e9 passed the leadership baton to his sons Yannick and Cyrille, and stepped down as chairman at age 70. While the patriarch of the family holds no official title at Bollor\u00e9 SE, behind the scenes his power remains undiminished thanks to\u00a0 a complex five-layer web of family holdings.<\/p>\n
According to Bollor\u00e9\u00a0 SE\u2019s 2025 financial filings, the family\u2019s control runs through a cascade of holding companies with various ownership levels. At the top is Compagnie de l\u2019Odet, where the Bollor\u00e9 family holds 93% of the shares and Vicent Bollor\u00e9\u00a0 serves as CEO and chairman. In turn, Compagnie de l\u2019Odet owns 71.6% of Bollor\u00e9 SE, which holds stakes in Vivendi SE, Louis Hachette, Canal+, Havas N.V., and UMG. Through Bollor\u00e9 SE, the family holds about 18.4% of UMG directly and Vivendi, in which Bollor\u00e9 is the largest shareholder with a 29.3% stake, owns a further 9.9% of UMG. Combined, their 28% control is large enough that Vincent Bollor\u00e9 can make or break Ackman\u2019s deal.<\/p>\n
And given Bollore\u2019s track record, many observers expect him to drive a hard bargain.<\/p>\n
\u201cI struggle to see why Bollor\u00e9 would jump at the offer without getting something else from Bill Ackman himself,\u201d said Marmurek. \u201cIn my view, Bollor\u00e9\u00a0 will want something more. I\u2019m not saying the deal is not going to happen, but it\u2019s a very uncertain deal at this point.\u201d<\/p>\n
What does Vincent want?<\/p>\n
Negotiations could center around one particular aspect of the complex deal that allows certain shareholders to receive an all cash-payment at a lower valuation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
According to Le Monde, the deal calls for Pershing Square to spend about \u20ac2.5 billion euro on the \u20ac9 billion euro cash portion of the deal, but there\u2019s an all-cash route specifically with Bollor\u00e9 in mind that includes up to \u20ac7.5 billion euro at \u20ac22 euro per UMG share. That means Bollor\u00e9 would have to accept a discount in exchange for liquidity, which is a lever he might like to pull, analysts said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A potential counteroffer by UMG and its shareholders, including Bollor\u00e9, could include a larger cash component, a research note from Paris-based financial services firm Oddo Bhf states. \u201cA consortium could form and propose a higher cash component (50%?) and an equivalent structure with a\u00a0 listing in the U.S.,\u201d wrote analyst J\u00e9r\u00f4me Bodin.<\/p>\n
At this point, however, \u201cthe market considers it unlikely that the current offer will go through and that Bollor\u00e9 will accept it,\u201d Bodin\u2019s note states. He described the deal as a \u201cmassive share buyback financed by UMG\u2019s balance sheet, combined with a relocation of the primary listing to the U.S.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
To get the deal over the finish line, Ackman will need to draw upon the right combination of charm, persuasion, and resolve\u2014a job that may require exercising new muscles for the 59-year-old hedge fund manager who has made headlines for his brash posts on X, where has 2.1 million followers, and for his adventures on the tennis court (he famously competed in 2025 pro tournament, to mixed reviews).<\/p>\n
The big question is whether Bollor\u00e9, who has spent his career building an empire, is ready to relinquish some of his control over a prized asset\u2014and if Ackman\u2019s entreaties persuade him that it\u2019s time to cash out or simply convince Bollor\u00e9 to pursue Ackman\u2019s vision for UMG himself.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Desmond Kingsford, whose Highwood Value Partners owns shares in Bollor\u00e9 and Compagnie de L\u2019Ode, questioned why Bollor\u00e9 would support Ackman\u2019s proposal \u201cwhen he could push management to do everything Ackman proposes and not dilute any control or ownership?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cSurely he could sell a few shares at a higher price after management takes those actions if he liked the liquidity aspect of the deal, perhaps in a relisting,\u201d wrote Kingsford in an email.<\/p>\n
#secretive #tycoon #called #French #Murdoch #holds #key #Bill #Ackmans #billion #bid #UMG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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