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Iran and the White House both declared the valuable Strait of Hormuz choke point \u201ccompletely open\u201d on April 17, and benchmark crude oil prices plunged below $90 per barrel for the first time since early March. But Iran is still asserting its control over the strait, and President Donald Trump maintained that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports continues for now.<\/p>\n
Translation: Virtually nothing has changed yet, and the markets overreacted to the announcements, although peace talks are seemingly making notable progress, energy and geopolitical analysts told Fortune.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe strait remains closed for now,\u201d said Matt Reed, vice president of geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports. \u201cThe Iranians made clear that nothing has really changed yet. They still want ships to follow their orders. That means being rerouted. It means maybe paying tolls.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen Iran said that the strait was completely open, it came with an\u00a0asterisk.\u201d<\/p>\n
Despite the confusion on Friday, Reed said, there is clear progress being made in the negotiations.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf there if there is a breakthrough to be had, it might not be for a few more days,\u201d Reed said. \u201cWe are clearly inching in the right direction, but there\u2019s still a long way to go. The problem for oil markets is that every day the strait remains shut the market is starved.\u00a0And it is still closed for now.\u201d<\/p>\n
Historic supply shocks<\/p>\n
The world has continued to suffer its greatest supply shock ever for nearly seven weeks with the closure of the strait and the halting of roughly 20% of global crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, and petrochemical trade flow.<\/p>\n
Although Trump declared the strait \u201ccompletely open and ready for business and full passage,\u201d he emphasized that the naval blockade on Iran\u2019s exports will remain \u201cin full force and effect\u201d until a peace deal is \u201c100% complete.\u201d He said the process should be completed \u201cvery quickly\u201d because most points are already negotiated. Trump added that Iran is in the process of removing sea mines from the strait, which has not been confirmed.<\/p>\n
No immediate changes in traffic through the Persian Gulf were apparent April 17, said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa. \u201cIn practical terms, that likely means shipowners, charterers, and insurers will still want operational clarity before changing voyage decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n
German maritime shipper Hapag-Lloyd still has six vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf. The company\u2019s crisis committee is meeting and trying to determine when it might be safe to traverse the strait, said spokesman Nils Haupt in email exchanges. But they remain in a holding pattern for now.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are still some open questions on our end, but they might be resolved within the next 24 hours,\u201d Haupt said. \u201cTop priority for the passage is safety and security for the seafarers, the vessel, and the cargo of our customers. If all open issues are cleared (i.e., insurance coverage, clear orders of Iranian government\/military about the exact sea corridor to be used, and the sequence of ships leaving), we would prefer to pass the strait as soon as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n
Likewise, the Norwegian Shipowners\u2019 Association said the tenuous situation \u201cremains unresolved\u201d with issues of sea mines, Iran\u2019s conditional orders, insurance, and more still unclear for now.<\/p>\n
It seems as if the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced April 16 was a key step toward moving the U.S. and Iran closer on a potential deal. Iran drew a line in the sand against Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon. Trump said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not tied to Lebanon, but Trump added on social media, \u201cIsrael will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!\u201d<\/p>\n
Matt Reed now sees an interim peace deal\u2014not a more in-depth permanent one\u2014as possible as soon as this weekend.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe good news is that we\u2019re headed in the right direction. The bad news is that we haven\u2019t achieved a breakthrough yet,\u201d Reed said. \u201cWe could see Iran ease its grip on traffic going through the strait, but it won\u2019t want to give up its leverage too soon.\u201d<\/p>\n
#Iran #White #House #Strait #Hormuz #completely #open #remains #closed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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