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Global markets were mixed this morning as investors woke up to the news that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to involve live fire, and Iranian officials declined to confirm whether they would attend peace talks today. Oil is at $95 per barrel, up from a low of $86 three days ago. S&P 500 futures were down 0.46% this morning prior to the open in New York. The index closed up 1.2% in its last session at an all-time high of 7,126.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Asia was mostly up. China\u2019s CSI 300 was up 0.61%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was up 0.6%.\u00a0
\nBut Europe flinched. Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 was down 1% in early trading. The U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was down 0.6%.\u00a0
\nBitcoin was at $75K.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Chart via TradingEconomics.<\/p>\n
ONE BIG THINGIs Kalshi a bookmaker? The Supreme Court may decide \u2014 and the answer could reshape U.S. gambling<\/p>\n
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are massive sports betting platforms: Sports wagers account for over 85% of all bets on Kalshi. But the platforms have long claimed that they are not bookmakers but \u201cevents contracts\u201d providers, which are classified as swaps under federal law. Kalshi, for instance, has a Designated Contracts Market license, which allows it to offer derivatives under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. State regulators aren\u2019t buying that, and some have sued the companies claiming they operate unlicensed betting operations. Two federal appeals courts are poised to offer clashing rulings\u2014teeing the cases up for the U.S. Supreme Court to seal their fate, Fortune\u2019s Jeff John Roberts reports.<\/p>\n
IRANNo deal: Iran pulls out of peace talks after U.S. seizes cargo ship in the Strait<\/p>\n
The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is due to end Wednesday, and this morning hopes for peace dwindled following a U.S. attack on an Iranian cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The ship was trying to evade the blockade and was disabled, boarded, and taken into \u201ccustody\u201d by U.S. forces. The Strait remains blocked both by U.S. Navy patrols and Iranian forces. The Iranian state news agency said Tehran would not send negotiators to peace talks as long as the U.S. continued to interfere in the Strait.<\/p>\n
How Trump sees it: \u201cWe\u2019re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don\u2019t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!\u201d he posted on social media.<\/p>\n
THE OPTIMISTDon’t panic, yet: CBO chief thinks the U.S. can fix its $39 trillion debt \u2014 if Congress acts<\/p>\n
Dr. Phillip Swagel is the director of the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan agency that offers independent economic analysis to Congress, often in the form of gloomy reports about U.S. debt and the $1 trillion-a-year in interest payments required to sustain it. But Swagel is optimistic that a systemic crisis can be avoided. \u201c[My optimism] is rooted in my experience,\u201d Swagel told Fortune\u2019s Eleanor Pringle. \u201cFirst being at Treasury during the financial crisis and seeing very difficult times and the country coming together with an effective response\u2014not saying it\u2019s perfect, lots of controversy\u2014but it was effective. \u2026 The policymakers that are thinking about these things are thoughtful and effective,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n
Federal government launches broad probe into mysterious disappearances and deaths of top scientists. \u2018We haven\u2019t found anything alarming yet\u2019 – Jason Ma<\/p>\n
Starting Monday, businesses can claim refunds for Trump\u2019s unconstitutional tariffs. But it will take 60-90 days to get paid – The AP<\/p>\n
Elon Musk bans r\u00e9sum\u00e9s and cover letters in hiring for his chip team. These are the 3 bullet points he\u2019s looking for instead – Jake Angelo<\/p>\n
Thousands of CEOs admit AI had no impact on employment or productivity\u2014and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago – Sasha Rogelberg<\/p>\n
Gen Z is \u2018Chinamaxxing\u2019\u2014and it\u2019s less a love letter to Beijing than an indictment of America – Nick Lichtenberg<\/p>\n
CHART OF THE DAYNew data shows AI may finally be eating jobs \u2014 not just threatening to<\/p>\n
This chart is important because it shows, for the first time, that AI might actually be starting to destroy jobs in sectors sensitive to AI replacement, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics\u2019 Samuel Tombs. Those sectors are in tech and admin. It comes from Pantheon\u2019s April U.S. chartbook. The caption says, \u201cAI is a marginal drag on employment growth for now.\u201d The previous month it said, \u201cAI is not replacing many people\u2019s jobs yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY$9 trillion<\/p>\n
The size of the Fed\u2019s balance sheet at its peak in 2022, equivalent to 35% of U.S. GDP. Since it topped out, the balance sheet has been reduced by a further $2 trillion or more. Incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants it to drop further.<\/p>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n
Can Tinder win back women? – FT<\/p>\n
How private credit\u2019s cracks are threatening to deepen private equity\u2019s woes – CNBC<\/p>\n
What to know about tariff refund site that launches Monday – Axios<\/p>\n
U.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifeline – WSJ<\/p>\n
Hamas Officials Say Group Is Ready to Hand Over Some Weapons – NYT<\/p>\n
ONE MORE THING<\/p>\n
Your delivery robot just became a guide for blind pedestrians<\/p>\n
Coco Robotics, a Los Angeles-based startup operating roughly 10,000 delivery bots across the U.S. and Europe, continuously logs every obstacle its bots encounter\u2014errant trash cans, fallen bicycles, construction work, and so on. Now the company will feed that data to BlindSquare, an app that gives blind people live audio warnings about junk littering the sidewalk. Fortune\u2019s Catherina Gioino has the details. <\/p>\n
#U.S #stock #futures #tumble #Iran #refuses #Trumps #deal #Strait #stays #shut<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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