<\/p>\n
John Swinney at the SNP manifesto launch (pic: DB Media Services)<\/p>\n
The polls point to John Swinney returning to Bute House, but is there any substance behind the manifesto pledges, asks TERRY MURDEN<\/p>\n
He arrived in Bute House more by accident than design, a result of the experiment with Humza Yousaf being proved unworkable or maybe just badly timed. Whatever is read into the chaos that engulfed the SNP following the departure of long-serving First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, the party shunned young blood in the shape of Kate Forbes or other upcoming star and instead looked into its back catalogue and installed \u201cexperienced\u201d John Swinney as its new leader, almost without opposition. <\/p>\n
Branded as the \u2018unity\u2019 candidate, Swinney\u2019s pact with Forbes ensured a minimum of in-party conflict, though at the same time it denied those who had championed his erstwhile rival as the voice of reason, who understood the limits of nationalist fervour, but ultimately lost the internal battle against the dreamers.<\/p>\n
Swinney now flies the flag for independence, making it a centrepiece of his election campaign with the promise of a referendum in 2028, even though hardliners remain suspicious of his dedication to the cause and of his claims that he has a plan to deliver it. In the meantime, he\u2019s adopted the role of the nation\u2019s Good Samaritan, offering salvation to the poor.<\/p>\n
While siding with the under-privileged is hard to criticise, some say his left-leaning tendency has saddled Scotland with a juggernaut full of benefits and freebies that has run up unsustainable spending commitments. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said the\u00a0SNP\u2019s election manifesto pledged additional spending \u2013 an estimated \u00a31.4 billion a year by 2031\u201332 \u2013 without credibly saying how it would pay for it.<\/p>\n
No matter, with an election to win, the party leader says it\u2019s about ideas and, on that score, he believes the SNP takes top billing. Take, for example, the latest pledge to put a cap on the price of essential food items such as milk, bread and eggs.<\/p>\n
\u201cAn election campaign is about bringing forward proposals and that is exactly what I have done and it is a proposal that addresses the challenges faced by members of the public in relation to the price of their shopping, and I want to do all that I can to support those individuals,\u201d he says at a rally to promote his commitment to tackling the cost of living.<\/p>\n
But after getting a mauling from retailers, does he regret not consulting with them first? \u201cOf course, I have made it clear that in the early days of an SNP government we will have a dialogue about taking forward that policy proposal but it is important that election campaigns have got bold and imaginative policy proposals and I am delighted that only the SNP has done that.\u201d<\/p>\n
He later admits there may be considerable obstacles before he can force Tesco, Asda and the other big grocers into implementing his price cap which has proved difficult to apply in other parts of the world. Then there is the UK government\u2019s Internal Market Act, a piece of post-Brexit legislation which forbids unfair competition among the four UK nations. And, of course, the lawyers who are licking their lips in anticipation of the proposal spending years in the courts.<\/p>\n
Without appearing to backtrack, he tells a gathering of sceptical journalists that he\u2019s taken all this into consideration. \u201cI recognise the points raised,\u201d he says, \u201cand I would prefer a voluntary agreement that would get quicker progress.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve got public health powers I can use, but there\u2019s a lot of ways we can make progress by agreement. And I think it\u2019s in everyone\u2019s interests to do that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Well, everyone\u2019s apart from the supermarkets\u2019 which are not to be treated as charitable organisations. Mr Swinney has already told me that there is no claim on the public purse, which means the retailers will not be compensated for reducing prices. It\u2019s pointed out that they would make up for the lost revenue by simply sticking a few pence on to other items, thereby rendering little gain for those the scheme intends to help.<\/p>\n
The food price cap is one of a number of policies that fall into the broad category of \u201cwelfare\u201d. Whether it\u2019s committing to free tuition fees and prescriptions, or a \u00a32 cap on bus fares, he appears more comfortable talking about the benefits he can dispense rather than the wealth he can create. To that extent he may be seen as a soft touch for the Greens who are eyeing a return to government if Mr Swinney fails to win a majority of seats. <\/p>\n
While the economy creates the means for financing the SNP\u2019s freebie culture, the business community remains exasperated at the failure to help them drive the growth that will enable these giveaways. Compared with his poor relief, Swinney\u2019s response to questions on energy and business rates, for instance, appear feeble and lacking in conviction.<\/p>\n
Asked how he would fulfil his pledge to cut electricity bills by a third, he says: \u201cBy making sure that the people of Scotland are able to appreciate the wealth that they have at their disposal\u2026 we have set out the basis on which that would happen by decoupling the price of electricity from the price of gas and by taking other measures.\u201d<\/p>\n
He does not elaborate on \u201cother measures\u201d, nor how the SNP would decouple electricity and gas. The UK government may not be on his dinner party guest list, but it is surrounded by energy specialists who have only just come up with a \u201cfixed price\u201d scheme that, at best, looks like a bridge to a solution some way down the road. Yet Mr Swinney claims he has the formula. He\u2019s just not ready to share it. <\/p>\n
John Swinney says he\u2019ll lead Scotland to independence (pic: DB Media Services)<\/p>\n
\u201cI have set out the steps we would take in that endeavour to make sure the energy wealth of Scotland is used for the benefit of the people of Scotland,\u201d he says, unconvincingly.<\/p>\n
What about business rates? He has previously shared concerns with the business community about the revaluation and has set up a review. What\u2019s happened to it?<\/p>\n
\u201cThere has been dialogue and consultation before the most recent revaluation,\u201d he says. \u201cThe government has seen the effect of the revaluation and has put in place transitional relief support.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut we are looking at the business rates system and I am open to proposals that can make the business rates system more affordable and appropriate for the needs of businesses in Scotland. That work has started and it will be an ongoing priority should an SNP Government be re-elected.\u201d<\/p>\n
In other words, there has been no substantive progress, probably not so much as a focus group, and nothing will happen for some time, and certainly not this year. In the meantime, is there any chance of an immediate cut to help those businesses that are struggling?<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have set out our budget proposals,\u201d he says. \u201cWe have reduced the headline rate and put in place transitional relief and a variety of other reliefs so that the burden and effect of business rates has been ameliorated for many businesses across Scotland.\u201d<\/p>\n
Well, to a point. There are many smaller businesses that pay very little, that much is true. However, there is no incentive to invest and expand as a rate rise lies in wait to cut down anyone daring to do so.<\/p>\n
Surely the SNP\u2019s tax policies are anti-business?<\/p>\n
Naturally, he disagrees, He could recite progress on appointing a chief entrepreneur, creating a string of innovative tech scalers and introducing an AI Scotland strategy. But wait a minute, they were all attributed to Kate Forbes who\u2019s now left politics.<\/p>\n
Perhaps he thinks he\u2019s being interviewed by the income tax-obsessed Times Scotland, so he trots out the stock answer about who\u2019s being taxed most. <\/p>\n
\u201cOur tax policies reflect the ability to pay and ensure more taxpayers in Scotland pay less tax than if they lived in the rest of the UK,\u201d he says. <\/p>\n
What\u2019s that got to do with creating wealth?<\/p>\n
He goes on: \u201cWe have also seen a net inflow of taxpayers during the period of these policies being in place. So I think these policies are in the right place for the development of public finances and the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Well, we finally got to the economy, but it will not be the deciding factor in who gets to Bute House. Like other party leaders, Swinney has spoken about putting growth at the heart of his manifesto, helping enterprise and creating the conditions for investment. <\/p>\n
However, it all sounds a little hollow when the focus is actually on spending taxpayers\u2019 money on services the country struggles to afford.<\/p>\n
Terry Murden was Scotland Editor and Business Editor at The Sunday Times, Business Editor at The Scotsman, and Business and City Editor at Scotland on Sunday. He is now Editor of Daily Business<\/p>\n
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