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While the U.S. and Iran remain mired in a stalemate of ever-evolving ceasefires, the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint at stake is just one part of a global chessboard in a broader \u201ccold war\u201d against China, geopolitical experts and economists said.<\/p>\n
The Iran war and Hormuz blockade just happen to be the biggest gambit in the high-tempo game thus far. At play are all critical waterways and congestion bottlenecks through which the world\u2019s energy products, agriculture, and supply chain parts flow.<\/p>\n
Despite China\u2019s rapid growth, it still relies heavily on energy imports, and the U.S. continues to claim naval superiority for now. But while the Hormuz clash has dominated the headlines, behind the scenes the U.S. is quickly making moves to greater influence the world\u2019s other shipping and strategic military arteries from the Panama Canal and Greenland to the Strait of Gibraltar between Europe and Africa, and to Asia\u2019s Strait of Malacca\u2014the busiest strait in the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe U.S. is applying pressure, and it\u2019s clearly addressing the weak spots that are reflected in these various nodes\u2014or straits\u2014of global supply chain transit,\u201d said Thierry Wizman, a top economic strategist for the Macquarie Group. \u201cThey\u2019re the sea lanes that China depends on to uphold its economic preeminence.\u201d<\/p>\n
Opening move<\/p>\n
The escalation started soon into Trump\u2019s second term, when he launched his global tariff war, with China as a primary target. China countered by asserting its global supply chain dominance over critical minerals and rare earths. And the U.S. is now responding by targeting strategic choke points and China\u2019s oil-producing allies, including Iran and Venezuela.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe U.S., in recent weeks and months, is trying to assert some dominion over those places, effectively as a way of boxing in China,\u201d Wizman told Fortune. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t have to lead to a kinetic war; it could just be a blocking maneuver. If the U.S. could threaten to cut off China\u2019s energy supply, well then China would think twice about invading Taiwan or making other moves.\u201d<\/p>\n
Even if weakening China is only a secondary goal in the Middle East, it\u2019s easy to see a bigger chess game at play, said energy analyst Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm. And it\u2019s no coincidence that nearly all of Venezuela\u2019s and Iran\u2019s oil exports went to China.<\/p>\n
\u201cBehind everything that\u2019s going on, there\u2019s a China angle as well,\u201d Pickering said of the Iran war. \u201cThe impact on the energy side isn\u2019t great for China, and that\u2019s a fairly important secondary impact. That certainly gets woven into the broader strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Donroe Doctrine in the West<\/p>\n
The White House put a name to Trump\u2019s tactics late last year, informally calling it the \u201cDonroe Doctrine,\u201d and encompassing all the ways in which the U.S. plans to enact greater control over the Western Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
About a month later, the U.S. shocked the world in early January by forcibly arresting Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in the middle of the night\u2014a successful operation that left Trump feeling more confident. But it was far from a global checkmate.<\/p>\n
The president immediately began speaking more about buying or seizing Greenland, further unnerving NATO allies. Apart from Greenland\u2019s potential for oil and critical minerals development, Greenland also offers key economic and military passageways that could be utilized by China and Russia. That includes the key GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom) gap\u2014a vital naval choke point.<\/p>\n
And the more climate change results in ice sheets melting, the more open Greeland\u2019s maritime passages will grow.<\/p>\n
The other key piece of the board in the West is the Panama Canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The U.S. had become increasingly frustrated with China\u2019s rising control over the canal.<\/p>\n
Later in January, amid an intense U.S. pressure campaign, the Trump administration took a major win when the Panamanian Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings\u2019 contract managing the Panama Canal was unconstitutional. The Panama government seized the canal\u2019s ports from the company in February, greatly upsetting China.<\/p>\n
A subsidiary of the Danish group A.P. Moller-Maersk\u2014a U.S.-friendly European player\u2014has assumed interim control of the critical canal until a new contract is awarded.<\/p>\n
Middle East gambit<\/p>\n
Backed by Israel and emboldened by the successful Venezuela campaign, the Trump administration quickly launched a surprise attack of Iran at the end of February after building up its largest naval armada in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion.<\/p>\n
But, expecting a quicker surrender from the shock-and-awe campaign, a weakened and cornered Iran\u2014to borrow another chess term\u2014played a zwischenzug\u2014an unexpected move requiring an immediate response.<\/p>\n
That is, Iran held the Strait of Hormuz hostage by attacking tankers with fast boats and drones and by bombing its Gulf states neighbors and their energy infrastructure. The novelty was surprising to many\u2014even though it was predicted by some analysts\u2014because the strait was always off limits in previous Middle Eastern conflicts.<\/p>\n
The strait and nearly 20% of the world\u2019s flows of oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizer, petrochemicals, and more are largely stuck. The U.S. responded by blockading Iran\u2019s ports, and that\u2019s where we remain today.<\/p>\n
But the U.S. leads the world in both oil and natural gas production, which is why American consumers are dealing with high prices\u2014but not shortages\u2014at the pump, while much of Asia enforces more stringent conservation measures.<\/p>\n
And the U.S. is potentially expanding its influence in the Middle East\u2014while further isolating Iran\u2014even if the war is dragging on longer than planned. OPEC, which includes Iran, is now left weaker with the surprise announcement that the United Arab Emirates is bailing.<\/p>\n
Trump, who has criticized OPEC for its global influence on oil prices and market manipulations, can instead focusing on working more closely with the six monarchies in the Gulf Cooperation Council\u2014Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain, all of which are partnered with the U.S. and all of which were attacked by Iran in retaliation to the war.<\/p>\n
Overlooked April moves<\/p>\n
In addition in April, as the Iran war waged on, the U.S. quietly made new deals with Morocco and Indonesia, potentially impacting both the critical straits of Gibraltar and Malacca, respectively.<\/p>\n
In the middle of the month, the U.S. and Indonesia announced a new military partnership, theoretically giving the U.S. greater influence over the Strait of Malacca\u2014the busiest strait in the world and the primary shipping route between the Indian and Pacific oceans. And, make no mistake, China, which has vocalized the potential \u201cMalacca dilemma\u201d for decades, relies heavily on the shipping route for its imports.<\/p>\n
A few days later, the U.S. and Morocco announced a new military cooperation roadmap. The Strait of Gibraltar is between Spain and Morocco, but more critically it\u2019s the busy maritime passageway between all of Europe and Africa.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese are clear wins for the U.S.,\u201d Wizman said of the Morocco and Indonesia deals, even if they\u2019re more symbolic than anything.<\/p>\n
Speaking at a CNBC conference last week, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the war in the Middle East may just be a \u201cdry run\u201d for a war between the U.S. and China in the Pacific.<\/p>\n
Singapore, which is on the other side of the Strait of Malacca from Indonesia, is well positioned to stay neutral and do business with both world powers, he said. But he fears being caught in the middle of a war if things escalate.<\/p>\n
And, just as Iran aims to implement a paid tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia already are publicly debating the merits of doing so within the Strait of Malacca. Balakrishnan made it clear he\u2019s opposed to the idea\u2014supporting the right of free passage for all.<\/p>\n
Trump blunders and the China perspective<\/p>\n
This is not to say the White House is playing \u201c4D chess\u201d as Trump\u2019s most sycophantic supporters claim. In fact, Wizman said, Trump\u2019s blunders include weakening the country\u2019s NATO alliances and seemingly lacking a clear endgame in the Middle East after Iran\u2019s countermoves.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think this has to do with poor execution more than anything else. It\u2019s not a flaw in the theory of geopolitical competition with China; I think it\u2019s the flaw in the execution,\u201d Wizman said. \u201cIt has a lot to do with the president\u2019s personality and his impulses.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t have an articulate administration in Washington,\u201d he continued. \u201cWe don\u2019t have an administration that can really speak to the underlying issues with clarity and credibility, unfortunately.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the other side of the board\u2014or world\u2014is China watching everything unfold and enjoying watching the U.S. potentially flounder in the Middle East while harming many of its historic friendships?<\/p>\n
Will Trump\u2019s aggressive actions eventually help China justify invading Taiwan and trying to influence the rest of the world?<\/p>\n
Those questions are very much unresolved, Wizman said.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, China\u2014even as it mothballs some petrochemical plants and reduces oil refining activity\u2014has plenty of time to sit and wait because of its world-leading emergency oil reserves.<\/p>\n
By the United States\u2019 own estimations, China has about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil in its reserves\u2014comparable to the rest of the world\u2019s emergency supplies combined. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve ranks second in the world with a distant 400 million barrels.<\/p>\n
China also is leading the world in renewable energy deployment and in electric vehicle manufacturing as it slowly reduces its reliance on foreign oil and gas.<\/p>\n
For the U.S., the renewed focus on shipping channels beyond the Western Hemisphere isn\u2019t necessarily a contradiction of the Donroe Doctrine\u2014it\u2019s an extension, Wizman said.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think the U.S. is playing it both ways,\u201d Wizman said. \u201cThe U.S. is being aggressive with regard to these places are outside the hemisphere.\u201d<\/p>\n
That leaves the potential Western Hemisphere dominance as a redoubt, or fallback situation, he said, if China does manage to keep growing and add more of the Eastern Hemisphere to its purview.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe U.S. still needs to maintain a zone of influence, and the fallback would be the Western\u00a0Hemisphere,\u201d Wizman said, although stronger supply chains must be built up within the Americas. \u201cYou can make a case that it\u2019s self-contained. The Western Hemisphere has all the resources and the population that the U.S. needs without really having to depend on other countries.\u201d<\/p>\n
#Iran #war #turned #worlds #shipping #straits #chessboardand #aims #box #China<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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