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Don\u2019t ignore the macro. Sure, stocks are doing well, Morgan Stanley\u2019s Lisa Shalett says in a recent note. But don\u2019t underestimate the ability of political risk to derail good earnings: \u201cThe Federal Reserve\u2019s unique transitional situation could also foster volatility through 2028, [and] damage to institutions like NATO and OPEC could catalyze new destabilizers. Investors can be forgiven for ebullience around tech earnings and an exciting future, but dismissing macro factors with potentially long-lasting implications strikes us as brash.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cMost investors appear confident that the GenAI-capex story can compound almost regardless of the macro backdrop, while seemingly dismissing variables experiencing clear trend breakouts (oil, inflation, rates, Fed policy, the U.S. dollar) as transitory noise. We aren\u2019t as sure\u2014not because the AI story is questionable, but because the narrative assumes that what is being priced as secular is truly durable, and what is being dismissed as transitory will, in fact, fade quickly. Both assumptions can fail simultaneously. Among those variables labeled \u2018temporary,\u2019 we see potential for headwinds to last longer than discounted, with oil supply disruption a case in point,\u201d she said in her most recent note.<\/p>\n
ONE BIG THINGSupermicro\u2019s earnings call today will take place amid a probe that could be \u2018fatal\u2019 for the company<\/p>\n
Supermicro will report fiscal Q3 earnings today and investors will get a progress report on CEO Charles Liang\u2019s promise that the server manufacturing company could hit $40 billion in revenue this fiscal year, Fortune\u2019s Amanda Gerut reports. But the real drama will be behind the scenes: Six weeks ago, prosecutors charged Supermicro co-founder Yih-Shyan \u201cWally\u201d Liaw and two others with allegedly conspiring to route $2.5 billion in servers studded with Nvidia chips through a front company in Southeast Asia. Prosecutors allege that Liaw masterminded a scheme that allegedly involved filling a warehouse full of thousands of fake servers with shipping labels that could be peeled off to fool auditors when the real buyers were in China.\u00a0<\/p>\n
David Rybicki, co-leader of law firm K&L Gates, said the company\u2019s internal investigation will be closely examined by the DOJ. The worst outcome for Supermicro, said Rybicki, would be an investigation that the DOJ doesn\u2019t trust. \u201cWhen you have these kinds of high profile catastrophic compliance failures, I think it\u2019s fair to say they can be fatal for a company,\u201d said Rybicki.<\/p>\n
IRANBack to war: Fresh missile strikes leave Hormuz more closed than ever<\/p>\n
Iran fired on U.S. Navy vessels in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday after American forces accompanied two ships out of the Strait. The U.S. shot down Iranian drones and missiles while also destroying seven Iranian fast boats. Iran responded by bombing an oil terminal in the UAE. Analysts are describing the ceasefire as \u201cfragile\u201d this morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n
About 2,000 ships remain stuck in the Strait. Many of them have moved further away from the narrow gap controlled by Iran\u2014a sign that Tehran now controls more marine territory than it did before, Bloomberg reports.<\/p>\n
This map from MarineTraffic.com (below) shows the giant traffic jam in the Strait today. The large dot in the middle is the Rich Starry, the Chinese-owned tanker that Fortune has been tracking. It has not moved since mid-April:<\/p>\n
President Trump declined to say that Iran had broken the ceasefire. Notably, he did not post about the war on Truth Social last night. Previously, he had said Iran would be \u201cblown off the face of the earth\u201d if it attacked U.S. ships. Officials told the WSJ he would prefer a negotiated settlement rather than be forced back into a fresh round of strikes on Iran.
\nComing up: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine will hold a press conference today on what the Pentagon will do next.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s drone strike on Fujairah is significant because it is one of the UAE\u2019s most important fueling hubs, according to Peter Sidorov and his colleagues at Deutsche Bank: \u201cThe UAE came under missile attacks for the first time since the ceasefire began on April 8, with a fire also breaking out at its oil terminal in Fujairah following a drone attack. The latter has been of increased importance to oil markets as the UAE has been transporting close to 2mmb\/day of oil via pipeline to the Fujairah port while Hormuz shipping has been disrupted,\u201d<\/p>\n
MIDTERMSPrediction markets now see a Democratic sweep in November<\/p>\n
The rising price of gasoline is one of the main factors hurting the Republicans in polling before the midterm elections in November, according to Sara Godfrey of Oxford Economics: \u201cThe House of Representatives has long been the Democrats\u2019 to lose, but until recently, the Senate was a long shot for them. Prediction markets now see the Senate control as a tossup.\u201d<\/p>\n
MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/p>\n
I watched my father run his business through the Lebanese Civil War. Here\u2019s what it taught me about leading through disruption. – Alain Bejjani<\/p>\n
Starbucks CEO gets roasted for $9 \u2018premium experience\u2019 remarks, but Wall Street toasts his tariff-era turnaround strategy – Catherina Gioino<\/p>\n
China stopped issuing new robotaxi licenses over a glitch. America can\u2019t stop them from rolling into active shooter situations – Catherina Gioino<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s former AI czar says the quiet part out loud on the economy: \u2018Stopping progress in AI would be equivalent to halting the U.S. economy\u2019 – Tristan Bove<\/p>\n
CHART OF THE DAYBig Tech’s $2 trillion inbox<\/p>\n
This chart from Wells Fargo\u2019s Ohsung Kwon shows the \u201cremaining performance obligations\u201d of four big AI hyperscalers, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle. RPOs are sales contracts that are booked for the future but not yet recognized as revenue, because they could fall through.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
NUMBER OF THE DAY74%<\/p>\n
No wonder stocks are going up. Three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q1 earnings (that\u2019s 317 companies) and 74% of them beat expectations on earnings per share, 78% beat sales expectations, and 63% of them beat both. That\u2019s among the best performances since 2021, according to Savita Subramanian of Bank of America.<\/p>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank denies training bankers to manipulate markets – FT<\/p>\n
BYD\u2019s passenger EV sales drop for an eighth month as competition heats up – CNBC<\/p>\n
Trump administration considering safety review for new AI models – Axios<\/p>\n
The Secret Team Blowing Up Ford\u2019s Assembly Line to Make a $30,000 Electric Truck – WSJ<\/p>\n
Ships Cluster Further From Hormuz Strait as Iran Widens Grip – Bloomberg<\/p>\n
ONE MORE THINGRobots are controlling job interviews now, but they\u2019re lousy at it<\/p>\n
Around 63% of U.S. job-seekers have been interviewed by AI, according to a recent report from Greenhouse\u2014a 13% increase from just six months ago. Sharawn Tipton, chief people officer of Greenhouse, tells Fortune\u2019s Emma Burleigh that HR departments are deploying AI interviewers to \u201cfilter the flood\u201d of applications.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s a serious professional turn-off: Around 38% of candidates have already withdrawn from a hiring process because it included an AI interview, and another 12% say they would drop out if they were required to do an AI interview. Even when they go through with it, the outcome doesn\u2019t tend to be fruitful\u2014about 51% of candidates who completed an AI interview were either ghosted or are waiting to hear back.<\/p>\n
#Supermicros #earnings #call #today #takes #place #probe #fatal #company<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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