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For the back half of the 20th century (what Fortune founder Henry Luce called \u201cThe American Century\u201d), MBA and law degree programs were a ticket to a great office job and a path to the American Dream. The 21st century is asking the question: What happens when all those office jobs get automated?<\/p>\n
In a conversation with the Financial Times earlier this year, the CEO of Microsoft AI, Mustafa Suleyman, delivered another in a series of\u00a0predictions from AI leaders that white-collar work is on the precipice of a radical transformation thanks to AI. His timeline is 18 months until those law school and MBA grads\u2014and many less-credentialed peers\u2014are out of luck.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Suleyman predicted \u201chuman-level performance on most, if not all professional tasks\u201d being done by AI. Most tasks that involve \u201csitting down at a computer\u201d will be fully automated by AI within the next year or 18 months, he said, naming accounting, legal, marketing, and even project management as vulnerable. Suleyman\u2019s warning echoed the viral essay of the week, a version of which was published at Fortune.com, by AI researcher Matt Shumer, who compared this moment to February 2020, when the pandemic was about to hit America. This will be more dramatic, though, Shumer said.<\/p>\n
Suleyman cited the exponential growth in computational power as a flashing red signal that AI could replace large swaths of professionals. As \u201ccompute\u201d advances, he said, models will be able to code better than most human coders. Shumer and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have both written about their alarm, even sadness, at watching their life\u2019s work rapidly grow obsolete.\u00a0<\/p>\n
If Suleyman\u2019s warning sounds familiar, that\u2019s because it was the tune of early 2025, when many CEOs issued similarly apocalyptic prophecies.\u00a0Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned last May AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs (though recently changed his tune). Ford CEO Jim Farley said AI would cut in half the number of white-collar jobs in the U.S.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In The Atlantic, Josh Tyrangiel argued the U.S. wasn\u2019t prepared for the coming AI disruption, comparing CEOs\u2019 recent silence on the subject to seeing \u201ca shark fin break the water.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
But that drumbeat is beginning again, with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk saying in Davos in January that he thinks artificial general intelligence\u2014AI that matches or exceeds human-level intelligence\u2014could arrive as early as this year.<\/p>\n
AI\u2019s real impact on professional jobs: mixed results so far<\/p>\n
However, as AI experts hypothesize about when, and if, AI will disrupt white-collar work, the technology thus far has made only a small splash in professional services. A 2025 Thomson Reuters report found lawyers, accountants, and auditors are experimenting with AI for targeted tasks like document review and routine analysis. But while the results have shown marginal productivity improvements, they fall short of signaling mass job displacement.<\/p>\n
In fact, in some instances, AI has had the reverse effect: making workers less productive. A recent study from nonprofit Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR) on AI\u2019s impact on software developers found the technology actually made the workers\u2019 tasks take 20% longer.<\/p>\n
Any returns the economy is seeing are largely confined to the tech industry, suggesting that AI disruption has been limited in the real economy. Recent research from Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok found that while profit margins in Big Tech increased by more than 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the broader Bloomberg 500 Index has seen almost no change. A few days earlier, Slok had noted that \u201cinvestors do not believe AI will result in higher earnings outside the tech sector,\u201d citing consensus Wall Street expectations for the S&P 500.<\/p>\n
Still, there are early signs AI is leading to job displacement. About 49,135 job cuts so far this year were AI-related, according to employment consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas. While not citing AI as a reason for cuts, Microsoft last year let go 15,000 workers. In a memo released last July following job eliminations, CEO Satya Nadella said the company must \u201creimagine our mission for a new era.\u201d<\/p>\n
Despite marginal workforce reductions, the markets are reacting violently to the technology\u2019s potential. In February, software stocks suffered a huge selloff out of fears of automation (analysts dubbed it the \u201cSaaSpocalypse,\u201d for the software-as-a-service sector). The selloff came after Anthropic and OpenAI announced the launch of agentic AI systems for enterprises that perform many of the key functions of SaaS organizations.<\/p>\n
Suleyman\u2019s plan to build \u2018superintelligence\u2018<\/p>\n
Suleyman is adamant about the technology\u2019s potential. He thinks organizations will be able to retrofit the technology to perform any required job function, enhancing productivity across white-collar industries. \u201cCreating a new model is going to be like creating a podcast or writing a blog,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is going to be possible to design an AI that suits your requirements for every institution, organization, and person on the planet.\u201d<\/p>\n
Suleyman said his core mission as the steward of Microsoft AI is to achieve \u201csuperintelligence.\u201d The CEO wants to achieve AI self-sufficiency and reduce its reliance on OpenAI, instead prioritizing the construction of the company\u2019s independent models.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis after all is the most important technology of our time,\u201d Suleyman said. \u201cWe have to develop our own foundation models which are at the absolute frontier.\u201d<\/p>\n
A version of this story was published on Fortune.com on Feb. 13, 2026.<\/p>\n
More on AI and white-collar work:<\/p>\n
AI isn\u2019t paying off in the way companies think. Layoffs driven by automation are failing to generate returns<\/p>\n
White-collar workers are quietly rebelling against AI as 80% outright refuse adoption mandates<\/p>\n
The China shock hollowed out factory towns. This professor thinks the AI shock is coming for your urban coffee shop<\/p>\n
#Microsoft #chief #monthsfor #whitecollar #work #automated<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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