{"id":6774,"date":"2026-05-20T19:01:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T19:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=6774"},"modified":"2026-05-20T19:01:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T19:01:32","slug":"the-one-number-that-will-actually-move-nvidias-stock-wednesday-night","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=6774","title":{"rendered":"The one number that will actually move Nvidia&#8217;s stock Wednesday night"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img src=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/GettyImages-2243750289-e1779301792806.jpg?w=2048\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nvidia has another blockbuster earnings report after the bell Wednesday, and Wall Street, as per usual, is readying the fireworks.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts expect revenue of $78.8 billion, almost 80% higher than just a year earlier. Earnings per share are projected at $1.77, nearly double last year. There\u2019s ample reason to believe Nvidia will meet those lofty goals: according to data from The Motley Fool, the chipmaker has beaten Wall Street\u2019s estimates in 21 of the last 23 quarters, totaling to five years of outperformance.<\/p>\n<p>So the reason Nvidia\u2019s earnings are so closely watched isn\u2019t because anyone expects it to suddenly fail. A beat is almost a given. It\u2019s because Nvidia is still the big winner of the AI boom, the company at the center of every hyperscaler\u2019s capital spending plan and every investor\u2019s portfolio anxiety. Its last earnings report in February was a 7% beat on earnings per share. The stock fell 6% that day, and was down 11% a month later, according to 24\/7 Wall St.<\/p>\n<p>CEO Jensen Huang has bemoaned that no-win dynamic\u2014 a stock that can do everything right and still get punished \u2014 and it\u2019s why why investors won\u2019t be watching the headline revenue number. They\u2019ll be watching a less famous line, called gross margin.<\/p>\n<p>What is gross margin?<\/p>\n<p>Gross margin is the percentage of every sales dollar a company gets to keep after paying to make its product. So if Nvidia sells a chip for $100 and it costs $25 to make, the gross margin is 75%. The remaining $75 goes toward everything else\u2014 profits, salaries, taxes\u2014but the 75% itself shows how much pricing power a company actually has.<\/p>\n<p>For context of how large that gross margin is, a grocery store runs on gross margins around 25%. Walmart hovers near 24%. Apple, often considered one of the most profitable hardware companies in the world, sits near 46%. Microsoft, which at this point sells mostly software, sits at around 70%.<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia, which sells physical chips, runs at 75%, a number you almost never see in the physical economy. It exists because Nvidia\u2019s customers\u2014the hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and the frontier model providers like Google, OpenAI\u2014currently have no real chip alternative. Nvidia is the first mover in the most important part of the AI supply chain; but that doesn\u2019t mean competitor aren\u2019t building.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Why it matters tonight<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia told investors in February to expect a non-GAAP gross margin of about 75%, give or take half a percentage point, for the current quarter. There are a few ways it could miss.<\/p>\n<p>The first is pricing pressure. Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta have been Nvidia\u2019s most reliable customers, but they have also been the loudest about wanting alternatives.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Google now sells access to its in-house TPU chips and recently signed a multi-gigawatt deal with Anthropic. Amazon released its Trainium3 chip in late 2025 and claims customers can save 30% to 40% versus Nvidia, according to AWS executive Dave Brown. Microsoft unveiled its Maia 200 chip in January and is already deploying it inside Azure data centers. Meta announced four generations of its own AI processors in March, and in April,they agreed to buy millions of Amazon\u2019s custom AI CPUs\u2014chips that compete directly with Nvidia\u2019s own Vera CPU. The day the deal was announced, Amazon shares hit a near record.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean the hyperscalers can afford to abandon Nvidia\u2014they can\u2019t. But its leverage that can squeeze on the price of Nvidia\u2019s chips.<\/p>\n<p>The second is the cost of building Nvidia\u2019s current chips. Blackwell, the 2024 chip architecture that drove roughly 70% of Nvidia\u2019s data center compute revenue last quarter, is more complex and more expensive to manufacture than its predecessor. If those costs are rising faster than expected, the margin shrinks.<\/p>\n<p>The third is product mix. If a bigger share of revenue this quarter came from Nvidia\u2019s lower-margin products, which it used to be known for\u2014gaming cards, older chips\u2014the average comes down.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts\u2019 consensus sits at 74.5%, slightly below Nvidia\u2019s own guidance. A preview from CoinDCX put the stakes well: \u201cA gross margin print below 74.5% would be the single most bearish data point in this Nvidia earnings report regardless of headline revenue.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>#number #move #Nvidias #stock #Wednesday #night<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia has another blockbuster earnings report after the bell Wednesday, and Wall Street, as per&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[245],"tags":[291,1308,2626,881,12568,1812,813,233,1455,848,335,1813,91,2001,6736],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6774"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6774\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}