{"id":692,"date":"2026-03-07T09:22:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T09:22:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=692"},"modified":"2026-03-07T09:22:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T09:22:20","slug":"the-unexpected-92000-drop-in-payrolls-is-a-clue-we-might-be-reading-the-ai-jobs-narrative-all-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=692","title":{"rendered":"The unexpected 92,000 drop in payrolls is a clue we might be reading the AI jobs narrative all wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The shocking news that U.S. payrolls dropped by 92,000 in February\u2014market watchers were expecting a 50,000 gain<\/em>\u2014trained the spotlight on what\u2019s probably today\u2019s most worrisome issue for everyone from money managers to Main Street shareholders to office workers: What\u2019s the looming impact of AI on jobs? The widely accepted view, of course, holds that AI has already started generating gigantic efficiency gains empowering enterprises to do everything quicker and better while deploying far fewer people. But is that what\u2019s really going on? Or is it possible there\u2019s another explanation? <\/p>\n

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We know there\u2019s been a huge jump in global capital spending on AI, a number that Gartner expects to reach $2.5 trillion this year, up 44% over 2025. And that money\u2019s got to come from somewhere. So some experts are starting to theorize that the narrative is backwards: Companies aren\u2019t curbing headcount because AI\u2019s accelerating their processes right now. Instead, they\u2019re offsetting a lot of those lavish AI outlays by tightening the biggest expense item on their income statements, labor costs.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the view of Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan, a firm that manages $25 billion on behalf of such clients as charitable institutions and college endowments. He\u2019s not buying the \u201cAI\u2019s doing all those peoples\u2019 jobs right now or soon\u201d argument. \u201cYou see it at our company,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cWe\u2019ve bought five different AI software products in the past six months. AI is better at little functions, but doesn\u2019t replace people overall. A job does 100 things in a day, and that\u2019s a lot more than a single AI workflow can perform. It replaces activities that are just pieces of jobs. We have programmers who have to de-bug what AI produces.\u201d Conger avows that at his shop, AI\u2019s adoption hasn\u2019t cost a single job.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, he views Jack Dorsey\u2019s explanation for Block\u2019s recent decision to cut 10,000 employees, 40% of the total, as pure camouflage. Dorsey avows that \u201cThis decision comes from a position of strength. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to run a company. A significantly smaller team using the tools we\u2019re building can do more and do it better.\u201d Conger theorizes instead that Block way over-hired by more than doubling its workforce since 2019. \u201cBlock is an incredibly inefficient business,\u201d he argues. \u201cNow they say AI made them more productive and therefore they can lay off people. They had no choice but to pivot. AI\u2019s an excuse for the inevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Conger contends that for the big spenders on the technology, including Block, \u201cAI\u2019s not<\/em> replacing jobs, but job cuts are<\/em> funding AI expenditures.\u201d Several sprinters in the race are indeed implying that workforce reductions help pay for their AI outlays. In unveiling layoffs of 1,700 or 8.5% in February, Workforce CEO Carl Eschenbach declared that the cuts were necessary to prioritize AI investment and free up resources. Between October and January, Amazon announced that it\u2019s slashing 30,000 positions. The cuts coincide with an explosion in the internet giant\u2019s capex, which more than doubled from $53 billion in 2023 to $133 billion last year. In 2026, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is pledging a blowout reaching $200 billion. Beth Galetti, SVP for people experience and technology, stated that Amazon\u2019s \u201cshifting resources to ensure we\u2019re investing in our biggest bets and what matters most to our customers\u201d in a campaign \u201cto be organized more leanly, with fewer layers and more ownership.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other leaders who\u2019ve cut workers big time don\u2019t explicitly cite shrinking payrolls as a way to save cash they can re-channel into AI. Rather, they trumpet that AI is already substituting for people. Microsoft\u2019s mass layoffs of 15,000 last year came as its AI-driven capex followed a soaring trajectory resembling Amazon\u2019s. CEO Satya Nadella explained that the Windows and Azure titan needs to \u201creimagine its mission for a new era\u201d via AI. Following layoffs of 4,000 in September and 10,000 in February, Salesforce co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff asserted that AI is already performing 50% of all the work at the top CRM platform. In May, CrowdStrike chief George Kurtz pointed to AI in announcing cuts a cut of 500. \u201cAI flattens the hiring curve, and helps us innovate from idea to product faster,\u201d Kurtz contended.<\/p>\n

As Conger acknowledges, we simply don\u2019t know if AI will eventually allow companies to work just as well, or even significantly better, using far fewer employees. But he doesn\u2019t see it now. Instead, Conger finds that what\u2019s regarded as totally transformative technology is often getting trotted out as a ruse for cuts to bloated workforces that had to happen anyway, or as a wager on the miracles to come. Unfortunately, America\u2019s workers may be paying for that wager.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

#unexpected #drop #payrolls #clue #reading #jobs #narrative #wrong<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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