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President Donald Trump\u2019s latest\u00a0financial disclosure\u00a0has drawn scrutiny for its astonishing scale: 3,711 trades, almost entirely in shares of companies across America, including many whose fortunes can turn on federal policy.<\/p>\n
Collectively, they constitute an\u00a0unprecedented\u00a0burst\u00a0of stock-market activity by a sitting president that has fueled fascination among the day-trading masses and prompted detractors to warn of insider-dealing.<\/p>\n
But a review of the transactions, combined with interviews with investment experts, reveals trading so\u00a0multifaceted it doesn\u2019t easily lend itself to definitive interpretation. The patterns bear\u00a0the hallmarks of overlapping portfolio-management strategies, often index-based and much of it likely automated, and all of it difficult to disentangle.<\/p>\n
To a large extent, that\u00a0conforms with the Trump Organization\u2019s public explanation of the matter. It says the president\u2019s holdings are independently managed by third-party financial institutions that control all investment decisions, including asset allocation, trading, rebalancing, and portfolio management. Trades are executed through \u201cautomated, model-based portfolios and direct indexing strategies\u201d with no input from Trump, his family or company.\u00a0On Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance said the notion the president was trading from the Oval Office was \u201cabsurd.\u201d<\/p>\n
Contacted for comment, White House officials referred Bloomberg News back to the Trump Organization.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat is an inherent problem with the president owning stocks and individual companies: that people are going to assume that he\u2019s going to make investments that he knows are going to be profitable and he is able to influence,\u201d\u00a0said Kedric Payne, general counsel at the Campaign Legal Center, which has\u00a0backed\u00a0legislation that would ban stock trading by members of Congress. \u201cThere should be no appearance that the president is using his position to benefit himself financially.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump critics were quick to link\u00a0specific transactions to public actions and statement by the president. Elizabeth Warren, a Democratic senator from Massachusetts,\u00a0decried\u00a0\u201ctrades on companies that the Trump administration influenced with its own policies,\u201d\u00a0citing the purchase of $1 million of Nvidia Corp. stock before the sale of advanced chips to China was approved. \u201cWhat Trump is doing should be illegal,\u201d\u00a0she said in a video on her website.<\/p>\n
Tax Trade Clues<\/p>\n
The published trading activity represents\u00a0a huge jump from a typical Trump disclosure, which tends to show transactions numbering in the hundreds. More than 2,000 of the trades occurred in March as the war in Iran caused market volatility to surge.<\/p>\n
The number of transactions and their breadth \u2014 encompassing hundreds of securities and many relatively small trades \u2014 indicates\u00a0automated processes rather than a human manager making thousands of separate company-by-company calls. Some names were bought and sold more than once in a day, which may signal the filing is an aggregation of more than one account. Experts also said they see evidence of stocks being sold after poor performance, which suggests\u00a0tax-related trading.<\/p>\n
\u201cTax-loss harvesting is probably the single most common portfolio strategy we see among high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors today,\u201d said Samir Vasavada, co-founder of Vise, an investment platform with about $80 billion in assets that offers custom indexing. \u201cWe believe the trading activity in President Trump\u2019s 278-T filing is a likely example of what that looks like at scale.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Aspects of the data were consistent with\u00a0direct indexing. That\u2019s when an investor owns the individual stocks in an index rather than shares in a fund doing the same, allowing them to harvest losses by selling losers while still broadly tracking a benchmark.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Many of the trades came on days when major indexes were reset. The second-busiest day of trading was March 23, coinciding with\u00a0a rebalance\u00a0of the S&P 500, 600, 400 and 100 indexes, as well as the\u00a0addition\u00a0of new stocks to\u00a0certain FTSE Russell benchmarks.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Individual names in the filing show a roughly 90% overlap with Russell 3000 Index constituents, Vasavada said.<\/p>\n
It all potentially helps explain some of the clustering of the trades, not only around index rebalancing but also on market down days that create opportunities to harvest losses. The filing shows 155 sales on Feb.\u00a012 and 124 sales on March 18, days when the S&P 500 fell more than 1%.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen you\u2019re holding hundreds or thousands of individual positions and the system is scanning for losses to harvest every day, you end up with a lot of trades,\u201d Vasavada said.<\/p>\n
The data released was limited, which makes it difficult for analysts to nail down definitive conclusions. The disclosure only displays broad value bands rather than precise trade sizes, doesn\u2019t show profit or loss on any position and offers no breakdown of activity by account.<\/p>\n
Yet some patterns stick out. For instance, both January and February show a spike in trading the day before US inflation data is released, while activity in March was\u00a0elevated on both the day of release and the day after.\u00a0<\/p>\n
These\u00a0could be unrelated, calendar-based portfolio adjustments, or the actions of a macro or rates-sensitive fund. A jump in activity before the Federal Reserve meeting in March offers support to the latter theory.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, out of the 3,711 trades reported,\u00a0most of which involved\u00a0US\u00a0stocks, 625 were categorized as \u201cunsolicited\u201d \u2014\u00a0 a label that refers to transactions\u00a0not initiated by the broker.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Those almost all occurred in March, surging on the first trading day after the US attacked Iran. They were overwhelmingly purchases, and appear more ad hoc than the systematic-looking trades elsewhere in the filing.<\/p>\n
\u2018Amazing\u2019 Volumes<\/p>\n
What the data shows for sure is an unusually active trading footprint attached to a sitting president, who can change the outlook for companies, sectors or the entire market with either policies or pronouncements. Trump\u2019s predecessors often used blind trusts or broad diversified mutual funds while in office.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf you\u2019re in the business of predicting contract awards, for example, then there might be some information embedded in these kinds of disclosures,\u201d said William Cassidy, an assistant finance professor at Washington University who studies how political forces impact financial markets.<\/p>\n
Unlike members of Congress, who may also be involved in policy affecting listed companies, Trump is unusual because he often comments directly on individual companies, said Barney Chen, a PhD candidate at the University of California, Los Angeles, who co-wrote a\u00a0paper on congressional trades.<\/p>\n
For instance, the filing shows an unsolicited purchase of between $1 million and $5 million of Apple Inc. stock in early March, about a week before Trump publicly praised the company\u2019s Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook.<\/p>\n
Bruce Sacerdote, a Dartmouth professor who co-wrote the paper with Chen, said the volume of transactions connected to Trump was striking. He did not find, however, clear evidence of market-beating results.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s amazing how much trading is happening,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re not finding strong evidence that he\u2019s outperforming the market, even in cases where there\u2019s been some policy changes or tweet.\u201d<\/p>\n
#Trumps #trades #point #multiple #stockmarket #strategies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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