{"id":7092,"date":"2026-05-24T23:07:33","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T23:07:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=7092"},"modified":"2026-05-24T23:07:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T23:07:33","slug":"russias-economy-is-much-worse-than-it-seems-and-elites-are-increasingly-alarmed-as-gdp-contracts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/?p=7092","title":{"rendered":"Russia’s economy is much worse than it seems, and ‘elites are increasingly alarmed’ as GDP contracts"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

The Swedish government has come up with some drastically different economic figures on Russia that make the Kremlin\u2019s official data seem like a Potemkin village.<\/p>\n

In a New York Times op-ed on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard cautioned the West against overestimating Russia and said the economy is more fragile than it appears.<\/p>\n

While Russia has claimed GDP expanded by about 13% between 2020 and 2024, Sweden\u2019s analysis of nighttime luminosity suggests the economy actually shrank by 8% during that span.<\/p>\n

Moscow has also lowballed inflation substantially, according to Stenergard, who pointed out that Russia\u2019s official inflation figure in 2024 was 10% while the central bank hiked interest rates to 21% that year.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Sweden\u2019s military intelligence chief has estimated that today\u2019s inflation is likely closer to the current benchmark borrowing cost of 15% than the government\u2019s official reading of 5.2%.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis would mean Russia is overstating its purchasing power, and that its military spending capacity is weaker than it appears,\u201d Stenergard wrote.<\/p>\n

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has given Russia a bit of relief by sending oil prices higher and loosening sanctions\u2014allowing the Kremlin to generate more revenue.<\/p>\n

But Swedish intelligence believes Russia would need the average price for Urals oil to stay above $100 a barrel for the rest of the year\u00a0to provide a meaningful benefit to the government\u2019s finances, Stenergard said. Last week, the\u00a0average Urals price hit $94.87 a barrel, the highest since 2023. <\/p>\n

If the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts sanctions on Iranian oil, then global crude prices will plummet.<\/p>\n

At the same time, more advanced Ukrainian drones with longer ranges have evaded air defenses and attacked Russian oil export terminals, limiting the gains from higher oil prices.<\/p>\n

Oil storage tanks on fire with thick black smoke drifting south over the Black Sea at the Tuapse oil refinery.<\/p>\n

Vantor via Getty Images<\/p>\n

\u201cNot\u00a0everyone agrees\u00a0with Sweden\u2019s assessment of Russia\u2019s reporting on its economy, but there is growing agreement about the economy\u2019s general fragility,\u201d Stenergard added. \u201cInside the country, elites are increasingly alarmed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted that the economy contracted early this year, while think tanks, bankers, and officials close to the Kremlin have been warning for months that a financial crisis is on the horizon.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been making battlefield gains in recent months and has inflicted 1.2 million casualties on Russia since the war started, with new recruits increasingly difficult to find.<\/p>\n

Stenergard highlighted Russia\u2019s precarious condition to argue for tighter sanctions on its energy sector, namely a ban on providing maritime services, such as insurance, access to ports, and financing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cRussia\u2019s economy, in nominal terms, is\u00a0barely bigger\u00a0than the\u00a0State of New York\u2019s, smaller than that of\u00a0Texas\u00a0and fragile,\u201d she said. \u201cRussian households are feeling the pinch of daily expenses, and the lion\u2019s share of the liquid assets in the country\u2019s national wealth fund \u2014 its financial buffer \u2014 has been drained to finance the war.\u201d<\/p>\n

In fact, a survey from Russia\u2019s state-owned pollster showed Putin\u2019s approval rate has fallen to 65.6% from 77.8% at the start of the year and prewar levels well above 80%.<\/p>\n

People use their smartphones while riding an escalator in the Moscow metro on February 12, 2026.<\/p>\n

Hector RETAMAL \/ AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n

That\u2019s as ordinary Russians have become so fed up with inflation and disruptions to daily life, like a strict internet ban, that they are even vocalizing their dissatisfaction. <\/p>\n

More businesses are also defaulting, and Russian cities far from the frontlines are being hit by Ukrainian drones, with one near the Black Sea suffering from toxic rain after an oil refinery was struck.<\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures will persist for years amid a demographic downturn, military mobilizations, and the high demand for labor in the defense industry.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s government has estimated the workforce will need 3.1 million more workers by 2030, according to Interfax. And in the next five years, the total shortfall will hit 11 million jobs when including a ramp-up in retirement.<\/p>\n

A former senior official in the Kremlin wrote in the Economist this month that the country is fed up with Putin, including elites who are chafing under all the state seizures of their assets.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe irony is that Mr. Putin started the war to preserve power and the system he has created,\u201d the former official said. \u201cNow, for the first time since the conflict began, Russians are starting to imagine a future without him.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

#Russias #economy #worse #elites #increasingly #alarmed #GDP #contracts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Swedish government has come up with some drastically different economic figures on Russia that…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[245],"tags":[12948,3424,649,12947,1045,6143,176,303,788,7242,4733,131],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7092"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7092\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}