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Near the U.S.-Mexico border\u2014just a few miles from SpaceX Starbase\u2014little-known NextDecade is on the verge of becoming the top exporter of natural gas out of Texas. Its massive complex, sprawling 1,000 acres along the Brownsville Ship Channel, took more than a decade to reach this point: surviving industry doubters, the sudden death of its founder, and contentious legal fights with environmental groups.<\/p>\n
The war in Iran and the disruption of flows from Qatar have placed renewed global focus on liquefied natural gas (LNG), which must be chilled into liquid form for overseas tanker transport. The U.S. has emerged as the world\u2019s top LNG exporter in recent years, supplying energy-hungry markets across Europe and Asia.<\/p>\n
Most U.S. LNG capacity is concentrated along a corridor stretching from Corpus Christi, Texas to south of New Orleans. NextDecade\u2019s Rio Grande LNG is an outlier\u2014located another 160 miles south of Corpus Christi to the southern tip of Texas.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe geopolitical volatility that we\u2019re now seeing has made people aware of the fragility of our global energy system, and it\u2019s more vulnerable than people thought,\u201d NextDecade CEO Matt Schatzman told Fortune.<\/p>\n
Founded in 2010, NextDecade is finally bringing Rio Grande LNG online\u2014slated to begin production early next year and continue expanding through 2036, adding roughly one new liquefaction unit, called a train, per year. The first phase of three trains\u2014capable of powering more than 20 million households\u2014is expected to be complete by early 2029. Ten trains are planned in total, half of which are now under construction, producing enough energy for 65 million households.<\/p>\n
\u201cI wish we were producing LNG today, but it\u2019s coming soon and we\u2019re ahead of schedule,\u201d Schatzman said. \u201cGod forbid, if this situation is still going on, we\u2019ll be helpful adding more supply to the market and hopefully easing some of the pain that\u2019s out there.\u201d<\/p>\n
Schatzman is emphatic that Rio Grande LNG\u2019s business case stands on its own merits\u2014the war in Iran only sharpens the argument for securing reliable U.S. gas supplies.<\/p>\n
U.S. LNG\u2019s rise<\/p>\n
The U.S. was a natural gas importer until the shale gas boom took hold roughly 20 years ago. The country shipped its first LNG exports in early 2016, and volumes have grown rapidly since. Today, the U.S. is the world\u2019s largest LNG exporter\u2014surpassing Qatar and Australia\u2014and capacity is projected to more than double between 2025 and 2030. The U.S. Energy Department projects total natural gas exports will grow 30% from early 2026 through the end of 2027.<\/p>\n
U.S. LNG pioneer Cheniere Energy remains the industry leader, with Sempra and the newer entrant Venture Global also expanding aggressively. NextDecade is next in line. In early April, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved NextDecade\u2019s request to shift to a round-the-clock, seven-day construction schedule with contractor Bechtel\u2014a sign of the urgency driving the project.<\/p>\n
Qatar\u2019s and Exxon Mobil\u2019s Golden Pass LNG project just came online near Port Arthur, Texas. Other projects in the pipeline include Australia-based Woodside Energy\u2019s Louisiana LNG, Caturus\u2019 Commonwealth LNG in southwestern Louisiana, and Glenfarne\u2019s and ConocoPhillips\u2019 Alaska LNG.<\/p>\n
The Biden administration LNG permitting \u201cpause\u201d in 2024 reflected fears of an overbuild. The Iran war is changing those dynamics.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat opinion that we\u2019re in an overbuild, that we\u2019ll have too much supply, was way overplayed,\u201d Schatzman said. \u201cNatural gas demand has been growing consistently on average about 1.8% annually. We expect that to continue to happen. We\u2019re building because of natural gas demand growth globally.\u201d<\/p>\n
Driven by global population growth, electrification, and the AI data center boom, worldwide electricity demand is surging by almost 4% a year. The war could ripple across energy markets in multiple ways: Accelerating the shift toward U.S. LNG, spurring renewable energy development, and extending the lifespan of coal plants. Schatzman acknowledged the war may cause some near-term LNG \u201cdemand destruction\u201d overall, even as he makes a bullish case for American supply specifically.<\/p>\n
\u201cPerhaps the instability in the Middle East and this horrible situation will heighten the awareness of U.S. LNG, not only from its flexibility\u2014our customers can take it anywhere in the world\u2014but it\u2019s also really not that expensive,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s actually a relatively inexpensive insurance policy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Decade-long journey<\/p>\n
When NextDecade was founded in 2010 by industry veteran Kathleen Eisbrenner\u2014a rare woman CEO in oil and gas\u2014it was widely dismissed. The U.S. wasn\u2019t even exporting LNG yet, let alone from a remote stretch of the Texas-Mexico border lacking pipelines and easy access to gas supplies.<\/p>\n
Eisbrenner chose Brownsville for its deepwater access, low vessel traffic, and her conviction that the oil-rich Permian Basin in West Texas would eventually flood the region with excess natural gas. The pipelines would come, she believed.<\/p>\n
Schatzman, then a senior vice president at gas producer BG Group\u2014later acquired by Shell\u2014was among the skeptics.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of folks said this will never happen\u2014that this will be a really expensive place to build an LNG facility because no one\u2019s going to want to build pipelines to it,\u201d Schatzman said. \u201cI have to admit I did not have the vision when I first met her. But she convinced me the Permian is going to change the gas market in the U.S. She said, \u2018Matt, there\u2019s going to be a lot of gas that comes out of there, and this is the cheapest path to the water.\u2019 And she was 100% right.<\/p>\n
\u201cShe was a visionary for the pure fact that I don\u2019t know anybody who would have considered building an LNG project at the south tip of Texas,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Kathleen Eisbrenner, who founded NextDecade in 2010, died in an accident in 2019.<\/p>\n
Mayra Beltran\/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images<\/p>\n
NextDecade still faced years of delays\u2014a global pandemic, struggles seeking long-term contracts, permitting battles, and environmental lawsuits\u2014adding an ironic wrinkle to the company\u2019s name, which was meant to evoke the future, not foreshadow a 15-year fight to bring an $18 billion first phase online.<\/p>\n
\u201cHer name, not mine,\u201d Schatzman said, deadpan, making clear he\u2019s never been enamored with it.<\/p>\n
Brought on in 2017 to lead operations, Schatzman took the CEO role in 2018 as Eisbrenner stepped back into the chairwoman position.<\/p>\n
Then, in 2019\u2014a little more than a year after that transition\u2014Eisbrenner died suddenly at 58 following a reported fall and head injury at her home.<\/p>\n
\u201cWithout her idea, we wouldn\u2019t have done this. That said, the hardest part is taking that idea and turning it into reality. And it took a long time,\u201d Schatzman said. \u201cIt\u2019s a great story, but it\u2019s a story of perseverance\u2014of going through trials and tribulations.\u201d<\/p>\n
Now, with Rio Grande LNG approaching first production and a decade of planned expansions ahead, Schatzman reflects on the woman who started it all.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the best place to build an LNG facility in the United States, in my opinion,\u201d he said. \u201cKathleen deserves the credit for having a great idea. I wish she were here to see it being built and producing, but somewhere up in heaven she\u2019s looking down and hopefully smiling.\u201d<\/p>\n
#decade #NextDecades #longshot #bet #lead #LNG #Texas #finally #paying<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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