<\/p>\n
Sasol group economist Ian Marsberg has been named the 2025 BMR\/Unisa Economist of the Year after outperforming 38 peers in \u201cone of the most challenging forecasting environments in recent years\u201d. The announcement was made at a ceremony in Pretoria on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Marsberg, who was participating in the competition for the first time, emerged ahead of fellow finalists Frank Blackmore, economist at KPMG, and Jeffrey Schultz, economist at BNP Paribas.<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:
South Africa jobless rate rises before Iran war fallout hits
Investors reward reform as SA\u2019s outlook improves
Bank of America bets on SA deal-making despite global headwinds<\/p>\n
The annual competition evaluates economists on the accuracy of their forecasts submitted between February and December. Special emphasis is placed on forecasts made early in the year, when uncertainty is typically highest.<\/p>\n
The Economist of the Year competition was hosted by Media24 for several decades before ownership was transferred to the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) in 2021. Since 2022, the competition has been co-branded by the BMR and the University of South Africa (Unisa).<\/p>\n
Moneyweb and the BMR also announced on Thursday that Moneyweb is the new media partner of the 2026 competition.<\/p>\n
\u2018Do the numbers fit the narrative?\u2019<\/p>\n
Following the awards presentation, a panel discussion moderated by Moneyweb editor Ryk van Niekerk explored the challenges of economic forecasting in an increasingly uncertain world.<\/p>\n
Van Niekerk asked Marsberg about the methodology behind his winning forecasts.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
Pictured during the panel discussion \u2013 (from left): Moneyweb editor Ryk van Niekerk, Sasol\u2019s Ian Marsberg, KPMG\u2019s Frank Blackmore and the BMR\u2019s Carel van Aardt. Image: Moneyweb<\/p>\n
Marsberg said: \u201cI look at how the world evolves and ask myself \u2013 do the numbers fit the narrative?\u201d<\/p>\n
He added that he relies on input and debate within his team when developing his forecasts.<\/p>\n
\u201cI work with a strong team of brilliant people who challenge me. I take all their views into account. It makes the process richer.\u201d<\/p>\n
Once he has developed his own view, he compares it with those of other economists.<\/p>\n
Read\/listen:
SA posts third straight primary budget surplus
Vulnerable countries paying the price for Hormuz shock
How does SA\u2019s household debt compare globally?<\/p>\n
One of the key challenges is separating short-term developments from underlying economic trends.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s important to distinguish between the noise and the economic fundamentals.\u201d<\/p>\n
Competition methodology<\/p>\n
Professor Carel van Aardt, research director of the Market Intelligence Research Division at the BMR, said 39 of South Africa\u2019s leading economists took part in the 2025 competition.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
Explaining the competition\u2019s methodology, he said monthly forecasts were submitted from February to December, while the number of forecast variables was expanded from eight to 10.<\/p>\n
Van Aardt said economists were tested against an exceptionally difficult global economic milieu, with\u00a02025 \u201cone of the most challenging forecasting environments in recent years\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cDespite the elevated uncertainty and volatility, the economists showed resilience and analytical depth.\u201d<\/p>\n
The competition\u2019s methodology has remained unchanged since its inception.<\/p>\n
Forecasts are assessed using a weighted squared-error approach (a scoring method that penalises larger forecasting errors more heavily), with greater weighting assigned to predictions made earlier in the year.<\/p>\n
February forecasts carry the highest weighting, which declines progressively towards December.<\/p>\n
Read:
Rand swings from carry loser to winner as bond inflows surge
Moody\u2019s lifts outlook on SA insurers to positive<\/p>\n
Rankings are then calculated for each variable and then aggregated across all 10 categories.<\/p>\n
Official benchmark data is sourced primarily from the South African Reserve Bank\u2019s Quarterly Bulletin.<\/p>\n
ADVERTISEMENT:<\/p>\n
CONTINUE READING BELOW<\/p>\n
Forecast variables include GDP growth, average consumer inflation, the prime lending rate, the exchange rate, household expenditure growth, the current account balance as a percentage of GDP, and employment growth.<\/p>\n
According to Van Aardt, economists had to navigate a year marked by escalating global trade tensions, continuing geopolitical conflicts, South Africa\u2019s budget gridlock and Vat debate, instability within the government of national unity, governance concerns, weak business and consumer confidence, and persistently high unemployment.<\/p>\n
Among the key lessons highlighted by the competition:<\/p>\n
External shocks are being transmitted more rapidly across economies;
\nForecasting has become increasingly based on probabilities rather than fixed outcomes; and
\nSmall changes in assumptions can materially affect outcomes.<\/p>\n
Moneyweb the new media partner of the competition<\/p>\n
Moneyweb and the BMR announced a partnership through which Moneyweb has become the official media partner of the 2026 competition.<\/p>\n
Van Niekerk said the partnership is particularly important in the current uncertain economic environment as the competition provides South Africa\u2019s business and investment community with regular forecasting insights.<\/p>\n
\u201cI regard it as the country\u2019s premier economist competition. It brings together the forecasts of some of South Africa\u2019s leading economists and updates them monthly as new events unfold.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is the only competition in South Africa that provides this kind of regular consensus forecasting data, giving businesses, investors and other organisations a practical way to assess how changing local and global conditions may affect the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n
#Sasols #Ian #Marsberg #named #BMRUnisa #Economist #Year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sasol group economist Ian Marsberg has been named the 2025 BMR\/Unisa Economist of the Year…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[13961,1278,13959,13960,285,3578,85],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7982"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7982\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stock999.top\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}